Last of two parts

THE real damage in Davos last week was not Donald Trump’s public humiliation (TMT, Jan. 28, 2026). It was strategic. The world — especially Beijing — was reminded that this American era still runs on a familiar cycle: thunderous threats followed by cheap, face-saving retreats. Wall Street has given it a clinical name: “TACO” (Trump always chickens out). In the logic of Texas Hold’em poker, it is a bet on the inevitability of the fold once bluffs harden into habit and habit masquerades as doctrine.

This pattern is no longer anecdote. It is signal. And for countries whose security calculations rest on American resolve, signals matter more than speeches.

For the Philippines, the implications are profound. We have long treated Washington as the custodian of international law, the guarantor that rules would restrain appetite. Trump’s recent conduct exposes that guardianship as conditional at best, illusory at worst. The realtor’s attempt to “acquire” Greenland should be read in Manila not as farce, but as warning: An ally that treats territory as inventory may one day treat Ayungin Shoal or Bajo de Masinloc as negotiable line items in a larger bargain with Beijing.

When Arctic ice melted, Greenland revealed itself to Washington not as a people, but as a distressed asset. If the United States can threaten punitive tariffs on NATO allies over land it does not own — then abandon those threats for a vaporous framework — what, precisely, is the market value of a rusting hull like the BRP Sierra Madre?

The asterisk in the alliance

This is where the danger sharpens. Manila’s red lines now come with an asterisk. Beijing’s salami-slicing — incremental seizures via water cannons, maritime militia and administrative creep — is designed to exploit exactly this rhythm of bluff, threaten, fold without triggering war.

Each action is calibrated to remain below the threshold of automatic response, betting that ambiguity and fatigue will do the rest.

Filter a crisis at Ayungin through the TACO lens and the Mutual Defense Treaty (MDT) risks mutation — from deterrent into bargaining chip, tradable in a grand deal elsewhere.

Imagine a late-night Truth Social post: “Had a great talk with Chairman Xi. We’re doing a historic trade deal. On the South China Sea, we’re looking at a New Era of Cooperation. Moving the ship to save lives!”

In a transactional world, automaticity is dead. Protection becomes a subscription service — renewed only if the cost of the show does not exceed the value of the deal. The problem for Manila is not sudden abandonment, but conditionality disguised as partnership.

Europe calls the bluff

Trump’s tariff tantrums and Greenland theatrics collapsed at Davos not because of sudden wisdom or moral awakening, but because Europe found its spine. The European Union answered bluster with leverage, hinting at coordinated retaliation that would hurt where America actually listens: markets. This was value-based realism in action. Adults forcing a bully to stand down when power finally met power.

The Philippines cannot call bluffs the way Europe can. We do not move markets; we wave principles. For years, we treated international law like Vaclav Havel’s greengrocer’s sign — displaying the 2016 arbitral ruling as moral cover, a diplomatic anting-anting hung in the window to ward off coercion. But the Greenland farce reminded us of a hard truth: The strong do not obey signs. They negotiate with those who can impose pain.

From alliance monogamy to the security mesh

Surviving the TACO era requires a strategic pivot — away from alliance monogamy and toward archipelagic autonomy. If our shoals can be traded, our survival depends on weaving a security web so dense that no single thread — American included — can cause the structure to collapse.

This is not abandonment of Washington. It is insulation from Washington’s volatility.

Japan: The stealth anchor

Recent logistics agreements with Tokyo quietly complete a circuit that matters more than rhetoric: fuel, ammunition, food. Force multiplied. In a TACO scenario where Washington hesitates to resupply exposed outposts, Japanese logistics provide a secondary lifeline, reinforced by new infrastructure assistance. Tokyo is not merely helping Manila. It is defending its own southern doorstep, recognizing that Philippine vulnerability quickly becomes Japanese exposure.

Australia: Squad-ifying the shoals

As the Philippines assumes the Asean chairmanship, defense cooperation with Canberra must move from intent to permanence. Infrastructure projects across Luzon are not symbolic; they create a standing footprint. A blockade of Ayungin would no longer affront Manila alone — it would implicate Australia. This is deterrence by persistence, not performance. Middle-power solidarity that cannot be casually traded away in a late-night deal.

France: Europe’s hard power

France’s entry into the Philippine defense orbit introduces something we have long lacked: European hard power in Asian waters. Beyond patrol craft, Paris offers a pathway to undersea capability. Submarines change psychology before they change tactics. The calculus shifts when every Philippine asset is no longer trackable from orbit. Presence becomes ambiguity. Vulnerability becomes doubt.

What emerges is not a replacement for the American alliance, but a mesh — overlapping, redundant, resilient. If one ally hesitates, the others remain engaged. Exit becomes costly. Commitment becomes rational.

Asean as a survival blueprint

Europe’s defiance offers Southeast Asia a lesson it has long resisted learning: collective economic retaliation changes the arithmetic of intimidation. As chair, the Philippines must push Asean beyond its comfort zone —— from a gallery of pliant clients into a coalition of consequence. A unified trade posture transforms Southeast Asia into a market whose response is automatic and coordinated. Coercion loses efficiency when the target is not Manila alone, but a regional network.

The gray zone thrives on isolated victims. It withers under collective friction. This is not idealism. It is mechanics.

Living without illusions

The ice has melted — geographically and morally. Defense can no longer be treated as a hand-me-down from MDT 1951. It must be understood as a multilateral joint venture, assembled deliberately for an age of transactional power.

The emerging architecture is clear enough: overlapping partnerships among the United States, Japan, Australia, key European actors, and a more assertive Asean core. If one partner “chickens out,” others remain in the water. Multi-alignment raises the entry price for Chinese aggression and the exit price for American abandonment.

Manila survives not by demanding loyalty, but by making exit more expensive than commitment. We must sail with those already afloat — and build a hull that does not crack when the bluffs come roaring.

The final hurdle: The internal rot

Even the most elegant security architecture collapses when its foundations are rotten. The Philippines’ gravest vulnerability is not external pressure, but internal decay. Systemic corruption has hollowed out institutions, shattered public trust, and made strategic commitments brittle. Against this rot, American double-speak and Chinese intimidation are secondary.

Corruption masquerading as governance is the republic’s foremost national security threat. It distorts procurement, weakens deterrence, and turns strategic nodes into points of coercion. Sovereignty is not a slogan; It is the capacity to absorb pressure without fracture. So long as our internal systems remain compromised, our maritime claims rest on sand.

The Senate President crowed yesterday that the party he nominally coheads, PDP-Laban, has a “pleasant problem” — too many potential senatorial candidates. Koko Pimentel’s estimate is they have up to 20 possible choices for the 12-person slate for the 2019 senatorial race. But his list includes the five administration-affiliated senatorial incumbents up for reelection next year. This is a group that has made noises that, much as it prefers to remain in the administration camp, it is unhappy with the way PDP-Laban has been designating its local leaders and candidates, and therefore prefers to strike out on its own, perhaps in alliance with the other administration (regional) party, Hugpong ng Pagbabago, headed by the President’s daughter and current Davao City mayor, Sara Duterte.

Setting aside, then, the five-person “Force,” the administration-oriented but not PDP-friendly reelectionists (Nancy Binay, Sonny Angara, Cynthia Villar, Grace Poe, and JV Ejercito), what Koko’s crowing over is a mixed bag. Some of them have been floated by Speaker Pantaleon Alvarez (with whom Mayor Duterte clashed in recent months): six representatives (Gloria Macapagal Arroyo who is in her last term in the House of Representatives; Albee Benitez, Karlo Nograles, Rey Umali, Geraldine Roman, and Zajid Mangudadatu), three Cabinet members (Bong Go, Harry Roque, and Francis Tolentino), and two other officials (Mocha Uson and Ronald dela Rosa), which still only adds up to 11 possible candidates (who are the missing three?).

Of all of these, the “Force” reelectionists are only fair-weather allies of the present dispensation; their setting themselves apart is about much more than the mess PDP-Laban made in, say, San Juan where support for the Zamoras makes it extremely unattractive for JV Ejercito to consider being in the same slate. Their cohesion is about thinking ahead: Creating the nucleus for the main coalition to beat in the 2022 presidential election. The contingent of congressmen and congresswomen who could become candidates for the Senate, however, seems more a means to kick the Speaker’s rivals upstairs (at least in the case of Benitez and Arroyo) and pad the candidates’ list with token but sacrificial candidates, a similar situation to the executive officials being mentioned as possible candidates (of the executive officials, only Go seems viable, but making him run would deprive the President of the man who actually runs the executive department, and would be a clear signal that the administration is shifting to a post-term protection attitude instead of the more ambitious system-change mode it’s been on, so far).

Vice President Leni Robredo has been more circumspect, saying she’s not sure the Liberal Party can even muster a full slate. The party chair, Kiko Pangilinan, denied that a list circulating online (incumbent Bam Aquino, former senators Mar Roxas, Jun Magsaysay, TG Guingona, current and former representatives Jose Christopher Belmonte, Kaka Bag-ao, Edcel Lagman, Raul Daza, Gary Alejano and Erin Tañada, former governor Eddie Panlilio and Cebu City Mayor Tomas Osmeña) had any basis in fact.

What both lists have in common is they could be surveys-on-the-cheap, trial balloons to get the public pulse. Until the 17th Congress reconvenes briefly from May 14 to June 1 for the tail end of its second regular session (only to adjourn sine die until the third regular session begins on July 23), it has nothing much to do. Except, that is, for the barangay elections in May, after a last-ditch effort by the House to postpone them yet again to October failed.

Names can be floated but the real signal will come in July, when the President mounts the rostrum and calls for the big push for a new constitution—or not. Connected to this would be whether the Supreme Court disposes of its own chief, which would spare the Senate—and thus, free up the legislative calendar—to consider Charter change instead of an impeachment trial. In the meantime, what congressmen do seem abuzz over is an unrefusable invitation to the Palace tomorrow — to mark Arroyo’s birthday. An event possibly pregnant with meaning.

Here’s a striking statement about love shared with me by an English college mentor. “Love knows no grammar. How it works can’t be measured by any parts or figures of speech. It goes beyond the literate and illiterate. The sad reality is that, even a fool who has got no philosophy is not spared of its harsh reality.” After almost three decades, I reminded him through a private message of his words. Here’s what he said. “Thank you, Jord. This statement about love is searing to the heart. And, yes, fools do fall for it too. But I thought that we as well speak of the beauty that it gives and not so much focus on the harsh realities. After all, our country has had enough of the negativities.” Thank you, dearest Sir Eugene.

In these decisive times when our nation trembles under the weight of corruption, inequality, and disillusionment, it is you―the youth, burning with idealism, courage, and an unyielding sense of right―who must stand at the forefront of CHANGE. The future of the Philippines hangs in the balance, calling not for silence or apathy, but for unity, conviction, and action. Let your dreams be the spark that ignites renewal; let your voices thunder against injustice; let your hands build the nation our forebears envisioned but never fulfilled. Now is the hour to awaken, to rise, and to lead the march toward a just and transformed Philippines.

Remember, the pages of our history resound with the triumphs of youth who dared to dream and act. From the Propagandists who wielded the pen against tyranny to the Katipuneros who took up arms for freedom, it was always the young who ignited revolutions and rebuilt nations. As Dr. Jose Rizal declared, “The youth is the hope of our motherland,” but that hope is not a gift to be passively claimed; it is a duty to be earned through courage and purpose.

Today’s generation must transform awareness into action―to confront corruption with integrity, to challenge inequality with empathy, and to counter apathy with participation. The time for mere commentary has passed. What the nation demands now is commitment, creativity, and collective resolve. When the youth stand united in conscience and conviction, no obstacle is insurmountable, no reform impossible. The power to redeem the nation’s promise lies not in the hands of the few, but in the awakened spirit of the many. Rise, therefore, as one generation with one objective―to forge a Philippines worthy of its people’s deepest hopes. And to those who were once the torchbearers of youth but have since laid down their fire―hear this call.

The nation does not forget its veterans of hope, those who once believed that change was possible but have since grown weary in the long twilight of disappointment. Thus far history grants no sanctuary to resignation. It demands of every generation the same unrelenting duty―to defend what is right, to confront what is wrong, and to labor still for what remains unfinished.

Now is the moment to rise again. Let not caution disguise itself as wisdom, nor comfort as peace. The courage that once stirred your youth still flickers within; rekindle it, and let it burn anew for the sake of those who follow. Your experience, tempered by time, must now join hands with the fervor of the young - to guide, to mentor, to strengthen.

Together, let the wisdom of the seasoned and the passion of the rising coalesce into a single, indomitable force for renewal. For the task of nation-building is not bound by age, but by conviction. The call of the motherland resounds to all who still believe that the story of the Filipino is not yet complete―and that redemption, though delayed, is still within our grasp if only we choose to act once more. And to those whose hands have long gripped the levers of power―hardened by privilege, dulled by entitlement―hear this with clarity: the era of self-preservation must yield to the dawn of selfless service.

The nation can no longer afford leaders who mistake possession for stewardship, nor governance for dominion. The time has come to relinquish the throne of complacency and make way for the custodians of vision, courage, and renewal.

To step aside is not to surrender, but to honor the sacred rhythm of nationhood―to allow new voices, new hearts, and new minds to breathe life into institutions that have grown stale from neglect. True leadership is an act of stewardship, and stewardship demands humility―to know when to lead, and when to pass the torch. Those who have ruled long enough must now become mentors, not masters; guides, not gatekeepers.

To the youth who will inherit this burden and blessing alike, the call is equally profound. Lead not with arrogance, but with awareness; not with impulse, but with integrity. Let optimism be your discipline―a conscious act of faith in the nation’s capacity to rise again. Lead with inclusivity that unites rather than divides, with courage that reforms rather than destroys, and with resilience that endures when hope seems frail.

For the measure of a new generation’s greatness lies not in its defiance alone, but in its wisdom to build where others have failed. Let your leadership become the living testament that the Philippines, once disillusioned, has learned at last to believe again―through you.

Now, the Filipino youth stand at a defining crossroad of history. The echoes of the past and the murmurs of the future converge upon this moment, and in your hands rests the fragile, however formidable promise of a nation reborn. You are the inheritors of unfinished dreams and the architects of what is yet to be. United in thought and deed, strengthened by the wisdom of history and the fire of conviction, you possess the power to shape a Philippines anchored in justice, animated by democracy, and sustained by the collective flourishing of its people.

The mantle of responsibility has passed to you. Do not falter beneath its weight; bear it with courage, for it is through your resolve that the nation will rise from the ruins of complacency. Let your unity transcend boundaries of region, class, and creed. Let your integrity redefine leadership, and your compassion restore faith in the Filipino spirit.

This is your hour. Let this narrative be not merely a call to awaken, but a solemn commitment―to the country that nurtures you, to the people who believe in you, and to the generations who will follow your example. Stand firm, for you are the heartbeat of a nation yearning to live with dignity once more. Speak right and shine!

Rise, Filipino youth, and let history remember that when your time came ―you stood unwavering, and the nation moved forward.