First of a series

THIS week, I pause from my reflections on our national affliction — a republic ensnared in an unprecedented quagmire of corruption, reminiscent of the martial law regime, if not more dire, while the populace appears poised to embrace tumult in the streets as an expression of their anger.

I await, as many do, the long-delayed judgments of the ICI and the Ombudsman on the flood-control scandals, where familiar names resurface like detritus after a storm: Chiz, Joel, Jinggoy, Bong Go, Bong Revilla, Nancy Binay, and the usual convoy of bureaucrats and fixers. Even Martin Romualdez, cousin to the president, stands uncomfortably close to the blast radius. Now comes Zaldy Co, delivering his four-episode teleserye “confession,” baiting the Dutertes for protection by dragging the rot into Malacañang’s inner sanctum. The streets whisper the same question: Will public outrage finally force justice to move, or will “due process” once again serve as polite camouflage for paralysis? In plain speech — will anyone powerful actually end up behind bars.

As the Philippines wrestles with its moral deficit, the world faces another crisis — this one economic, where greed disguises itself as governance and global tariffs wars ignited by Donald Trump’s crusade against trade itself, justified as acts of patriotism.

His obsession with China as “the economic enemy” redefined America’s diplomacy. The detonation came on April 3, 2025 — Trump’s self-styled “Liberation Day” — when tariffs blanketed 120 nations, friend and foe alike. Donald Trump, the most illiterate president America has ever produced, continues to harbor the misconception that tariffs are borne by foreign entities rather than being a tax levied on American citizens, a farcical interpretation of economic principles. This is not merely a policy stance; it is cognitive dissonance clad in a red hat, exclaiming, “Winning!”

How a tariff crusade reshaped map of power

This three-part series examines the global fallout of Trump’s unilateral tariff imposition — an economic spectacle that promised American resurgence but accelerated a profound shift in geopolitical gravity. What began as a performance of strength has rippled outward into collapsing trade deals, allies drifting away, and supply chains rerouted to avoid the turbulence of Washington’s protectionist nostalgia. As the US retreats into the comfort of old grievances, the world quietly redraws its alliances. Into this widening vacuum steps China — not through bluster, but through method, design and unbroken strategic patience.

The new map of power reveals an uncomfortable truth: America has become loud but chaotic, Beijing quiet but ascendant, and the rest of the world is learning to navigate a century where influence is measured not by slogans but by endurance. This opening chapter confronts the irony at the heart of it all: a policy meant to restore American greatness is speeding up the very decline it seeks to reverse.

Primary skirmish: The opening lie

After Trump’s meeting with Xi Jinping at APEC 2025 in Busan, he triumphantly declared that America had “won” the trade war. He announced that China had surrendered on soybeans, rare earths, fentanyl precursors and export controls. But none of these concessions exist anywhere except in US talking points.

Days later, China has implemented nothing — no new licenses, no soybean surge, no relaxed restrictions. Beijing remained silent while Washington rolled back tariffs and celebrated itself. American farmers, manufacturers and markets saw no breakthrough, only the widening distance between political theater and geopolitical reality.

Meanwhile, the global order is shifting, but not in the direction Trump advertised. Partners he claimed to have “reclaimed” are quietly peeling away, negotiating new arrangements without Washington’s input. “America First” is mutating into America sidelined, while Beijing, methodical and unhurried, emerges as the new center of economic gravity.

The soybean mirage

Nowhere is this unraveling clearer than in soybeans — the trophy Trump presented to the American heartland. The White House boasted that China would buy 12 million tons of US soybeans this year and 25 million tons annually for three years. Prices jumped. Optimism bloomed across the Midwest. For a brief, heady moment, it seemed the farm belt had been rescued.

But the numbers, as always, tell the truth. Bloomberg and other financial platforms report that Chinese purchases have stalled almost completely. After a brief post-summit surge, shipments dried up. Traders now quietly concede what many suspected: the vaunted 12-million-ton pledge was not a contract but a diplomatic courtesy. China has been buying record volumes from Brazil for a year — specifically to reduce dependence on the United States.

Three realities explain the paralysis. First, tariffs remain. Even under the so-called truce, US soybeans still face a 13 percent import tax in China. Second, American beans are too expensive. Trump’s announcement inflated prices, widening the gap between US and Brazilian cargoes. Third, China is oversupplied. Months of heavy imports have swollen state reserves and filled port warehouses. With stockpiles at multiyear highs and Brazilian beans selling at steep discounts, Chinese crushers (convert soybean into meal and oil) see no logic in paying more for the US product.

Beijing has never confirmed the 12-million-ton pledge. Cofco, China’s state grain buyer, has purchased only symbolic amounts. Inventories at Chinese ports hit a record 10.3 million tons in early November. Analysts estimate state reserves at roughly 45 million tons — enough to last five months without importing a single American bean. In short: Washington staged a victory parade; Beijing never stepped onto the reviewing stand.

The domestic fallout: A heartland betrayed

Uncertainty in the soybean trade has spilled into America’s manufacturing heartland. Tractor makers like CNH Industrial, AGCO and Deere report that farmers, fearful China will not follow through, are delaying machinery purchases. Executives describe the trade deal as “ambiguous,” the agricultural economy as “strained,” and the supposed soybean lifeline as vapor. On the ground, the damage is unmistakable.

Farm bankruptcies are rising. Used machinery auctions are up double digits. Input costs from fertilizer to equipment continue to climb.

Exports have fallen even as expenses swell.

The bitter truth is this: the greatest casualties are Trump’s own apostles, the MAGA farm belt. They cheered his crusade only to find themselves gutted by it; exporting less, and crushed by policies that arrived disguised as salvation but functioned as betrayal.

Tariffs meant to shield them instead strangled them. While the White House celebrates phantom victories, the numbers tell a harsher truth: China is overstocked, margins are bleeding, and US soybeans are too costly to matter. Flush with cheaper Brazilian supplies, Beijing has no reason to save the American Midwest. The cruelty is almost literary; those who believed Trump most are those most broken by the consequences.

Manufacturing is shrinking, factories shedding thousands of jobs while Trump’s “resurgent” investments employ more robots than workers. Abroad, allies drift toward Beijing, redrawing economic routes that bypass Washington entirely. “America First” vowed supremacy yet created the void in which rivals now thrive — leaving the world drifting from the US orbit as Washington proclaimed its ascent. Thus fades the empire undone not by enemies but by its own illusions.

To be continued on Nov. 26, 2025

The Senate President crowed yesterday that the party he nominally coheads, PDP-Laban, has a “pleasant problem” — too many potential senatorial candidates. Koko Pimentel’s estimate is they have up to 20 possible choices for the 12-person slate for the 2019 senatorial race. But his list includes the five administration-affiliated senatorial incumbents up for reelection next year. This is a group that has made noises that, much as it prefers to remain in the administration camp, it is unhappy with the way PDP-Laban has been designating its local leaders and candidates, and therefore prefers to strike out on its own, perhaps in alliance with the other administration (regional) party, Hugpong ng Pagbabago, headed by the President’s daughter and current Davao City mayor, Sara Duterte.

Setting aside, then, the five-person “Force,” the administration-oriented but not PDP-friendly reelectionists (Nancy Binay, Sonny Angara, Cynthia Villar, Grace Poe, and JV Ejercito), what Koko’s crowing over is a mixed bag. Some of them have been floated by Speaker Pantaleon Alvarez (with whom Mayor Duterte clashed in recent months): six representatives (Gloria Macapagal Arroyo who is in her last term in the House of Representatives; Albee Benitez, Karlo Nograles, Rey Umali, Geraldine Roman, and Zajid Mangudadatu), three Cabinet members (Bong Go, Harry Roque, and Francis Tolentino), and two other officials (Mocha Uson and Ronald dela Rosa), which still only adds up to 11 possible candidates (who are the missing three?).

Of all of these, the “Force” reelectionists are only fair-weather allies of the present dispensation; their setting themselves apart is about much more than the mess PDP-Laban made in, say, San Juan where support for the Zamoras makes it extremely unattractive for JV Ejercito to consider being in the same slate. Their cohesion is about thinking ahead: Creating the nucleus for the main coalition to beat in the 2022 presidential election. The contingent of congressmen and congresswomen who could become candidates for the Senate, however, seems more a means to kick the Speaker’s rivals upstairs (at least in the case of Benitez and Arroyo) and pad the candidates’ list with token but sacrificial candidates, a similar situation to the executive officials being mentioned as possible candidates (of the executive officials, only Go seems viable, but making him run would deprive the President of the man who actually runs the executive department, and would be a clear signal that the administration is shifting to a post-term protection attitude instead of the more ambitious system-change mode it’s been on, so far).

Vice President Leni Robredo has been more circumspect, saying she’s not sure the Liberal Party can even muster a full slate. The party chair, Kiko Pangilinan, denied that a list circulating online (incumbent Bam Aquino, former senators Mar Roxas, Jun Magsaysay, TG Guingona, current and former representatives Jose Christopher Belmonte, Kaka Bag-ao, Edcel Lagman, Raul Daza, Gary Alejano and Erin Tañada, former governor Eddie Panlilio and Cebu City Mayor Tomas Osmeña) had any basis in fact.

What both lists have in common is they could be surveys-on-the-cheap, trial balloons to get the public pulse. Until the 17th Congress reconvenes briefly from May 14 to June 1 for the tail end of its second regular session (only to adjourn sine die until the third regular session begins on July 23), it has nothing much to do. Except, that is, for the barangay elections in May, after a last-ditch effort by the House to postpone them yet again to October failed.

Names can be floated but the real signal will come in July, when the President mounts the rostrum and calls for the big push for a new constitution—or not. Connected to this would be whether the Supreme Court disposes of its own chief, which would spare the Senate—and thus, free up the legislative calendar—to consider Charter change instead of an impeachment trial. In the meantime, what congressmen do seem abuzz over is an unrefusable invitation to the Palace tomorrow — to mark Arroyo’s birthday. An event possibly pregnant with meaning.

Here’s a striking statement about love shared with me by an English college mentor. “Love knows no grammar. How it works can’t be measured by any parts or figures of speech. It goes beyond the literate and illiterate. The sad reality is that, even a fool who has got no philosophy is not spared of its harsh reality.” After almost three decades, I reminded him through a private message of his words. Here’s what he said. “Thank you, Jord. This statement about love is searing to the heart. And, yes, fools do fall for it too. But I thought that we as well speak of the beauty that it gives and not so much focus on the harsh realities. After all, our country has had enough of the negativities.” Thank you, dearest Sir Eugene.

In these decisive times when our nation trembles under the weight of corruption, inequality, and disillusionment, it is you―the youth, burning with idealism, courage, and an unyielding sense of right―who must stand at the forefront of CHANGE. The future of the Philippines hangs in the balance, calling not for silence or apathy, but for unity, conviction, and action. Let your dreams be the spark that ignites renewal; let your voices thunder against injustice; let your hands build the nation our forebears envisioned but never fulfilled. Now is the hour to awaken, to rise, and to lead the march toward a just and transformed Philippines.

Remember, the pages of our history resound with the triumphs of youth who dared to dream and act. From the Propagandists who wielded the pen against tyranny to the Katipuneros who took up arms for freedom, it was always the young who ignited revolutions and rebuilt nations. As Dr. Jose Rizal declared, “The youth is the hope of our motherland,” but that hope is not a gift to be passively claimed; it is a duty to be earned through courage and purpose.

Today’s generation must transform awareness into action―to confront corruption with integrity, to challenge inequality with empathy, and to counter apathy with participation. The time for mere commentary has passed. What the nation demands now is commitment, creativity, and collective resolve. When the youth stand united in conscience and conviction, no obstacle is insurmountable, no reform impossible. The power to redeem the nation’s promise lies not in the hands of the few, but in the awakened spirit of the many. Rise, therefore, as one generation with one objective―to forge a Philippines worthy of its people’s deepest hopes. And to those who were once the torchbearers of youth but have since laid down their fire―hear this call.

The nation does not forget its veterans of hope, those who once believed that change was possible but have since grown weary in the long twilight of disappointment. Thus far history grants no sanctuary to resignation. It demands of every generation the same unrelenting duty―to defend what is right, to confront what is wrong, and to labor still for what remains unfinished.

Now is the moment to rise again. Let not caution disguise itself as wisdom, nor comfort as peace. The courage that once stirred your youth still flickers within; rekindle it, and let it burn anew for the sake of those who follow. Your experience, tempered by time, must now join hands with the fervor of the young - to guide, to mentor, to strengthen.

Together, let the wisdom of the seasoned and the passion of the rising coalesce into a single, indomitable force for renewal. For the task of nation-building is not bound by age, but by conviction. The call of the motherland resounds to all who still believe that the story of the Filipino is not yet complete―and that redemption, though delayed, is still within our grasp if only we choose to act once more. And to those whose hands have long gripped the levers of power―hardened by privilege, dulled by entitlement―hear this with clarity: the era of self-preservation must yield to the dawn of selfless service.

The nation can no longer afford leaders who mistake possession for stewardship, nor governance for dominion. The time has come to relinquish the throne of complacency and make way for the custodians of vision, courage, and renewal.

To step aside is not to surrender, but to honor the sacred rhythm of nationhood―to allow new voices, new hearts, and new minds to breathe life into institutions that have grown stale from neglect. True leadership is an act of stewardship, and stewardship demands humility―to know when to lead, and when to pass the torch. Those who have ruled long enough must now become mentors, not masters; guides, not gatekeepers.

To the youth who will inherit this burden and blessing alike, the call is equally profound. Lead not with arrogance, but with awareness; not with impulse, but with integrity. Let optimism be your discipline―a conscious act of faith in the nation’s capacity to rise again. Lead with inclusivity that unites rather than divides, with courage that reforms rather than destroys, and with resilience that endures when hope seems frail.

For the measure of a new generation’s greatness lies not in its defiance alone, but in its wisdom to build where others have failed. Let your leadership become the living testament that the Philippines, once disillusioned, has learned at last to believe again―through you.

Now, the Filipino youth stand at a defining crossroad of history. The echoes of the past and the murmurs of the future converge upon this moment, and in your hands rests the fragile, however formidable promise of a nation reborn. You are the inheritors of unfinished dreams and the architects of what is yet to be. United in thought and deed, strengthened by the wisdom of history and the fire of conviction, you possess the power to shape a Philippines anchored in justice, animated by democracy, and sustained by the collective flourishing of its people.

The mantle of responsibility has passed to you. Do not falter beneath its weight; bear it with courage, for it is through your resolve that the nation will rise from the ruins of complacency. Let your unity transcend boundaries of region, class, and creed. Let your integrity redefine leadership, and your compassion restore faith in the Filipino spirit.

This is your hour. Let this narrative be not merely a call to awaken, but a solemn commitment―to the country that nurtures you, to the people who believe in you, and to the generations who will follow your example. Stand firm, for you are the heartbeat of a nation yearning to live with dignity once more. Speak right and shine!

Rise, Filipino youth, and let history remember that when your time came ―you stood unwavering, and the nation moved forward.