ON May 21, 2017, I had the privilege of hosting a family dinner for Defense Secretary Delfin Lorenzana at my residence in Davao. It was the eve of President Duterte's departure for Russia. Unbeknownst to the upper echelon of government, Marawi was to erupt in bloody violence between the forces of the Abu Sayyaf led by Isnilon Hapilon, the Islamic State-affiliated Maute-Islamist, and government forces. This would last for five months.

Researching on this incident, referred to as the "Marawi siege," four published source books are cited: 1) The Challenges of Reporting Violent Extremism: Lessons from Mindanao, Mindanao Institute of Journalism, Carolyn O. Arguilas ed. (2021); 2) The Battle of Marawi, Criselda Yabes (2020); 3) Marawi Siege: Stories from the Frontlines, Carmela S. Fonbuena (2020); and 4) No Man Left Behind, Phil Fortuno, PhD.

This column is written on the fourth anniversary of the siege, but to add flavor to these books, I sought another angle with the contribution of two individuals who had a stake in Marawi at different times of their lives: one describing Marawi long before the incident, and the other four years after. "Dinky" Munda, a Christian and a classmate at the AdeD in the 1960s and Samira Gutoc, a Maranao Marawi resident and former student leader in the 1990s whom I met during my NGO days and is now immersed in civil society.

Jose Paulino 'Dinky' Amado Santos Munda Jr.'s narrative

"Marawi, formerly known as 'Dansalan' has a special place in our family's history. In 1920, my grandfather, Gen. Paulino T. Santos, then a captain, was ordered back to the province of Lanao to become the first Filipino provincial commander and concurrent provincial governor, relieving Major M. L. Stephens.

"[The year] 1917 marked a defining moment in the young Paulino's career as an officer in an event which propelled him into the pantheon of Philippine heroes. This incident happened in the Lake Lanao-Bayang area.

"The tall slim, brown-skinned constabulary officer, a newly promoted lieutenant, stared unflinchingly at the heavily fortified Moro cotta, then confidently spoke to his American commanding officer: 'Colonel Waloe, Sir, this is a Filipino fight so let me have the honor of leading the attack.'

"When his leader consented, he took a bamboo ladder, leaned it against the ramparts, climbed it and led his American and Filipino men. He personally killed many Moro rebels and his troops finally overpowered and conquered the Moro stronghold. This despite his receiving a near-fatal wound in the neck.

"...Paulino Santos - private in 1909, lieutenant in 1914, and major-general commanding the Philippine Army in 1936. For his act of bravery on this bloody day in 1917, on this fort called Bayang Cotta by the placid waters of Lake Lanao, Lt. Santos would later be awarded his country's highest honor for bravery - the Medal for Valor.

"To date, there have been only three AFP chiefs of staff who have been awarded the Medal of Valor -- my lolo, Gen. Castañeda and Gen. Sobejana, the current chief of staff.

The siege

"On May 23, 2017, eight AFP troopers attempted to capture the Emir Isnilon Hapilon in an apartment in Marawi City. It turned out that the AFP's intelligence report was faulty which led to an unsuccessful operation - a 'botched' job.

"To get a better understanding of the Battle of Marawi and its aftermath, I sought answers to the following questions:

"First, there was no military strategy. AFP just stumbled into this battle – almost accidentally. The eight AFP troopers were shot at by Islamists killing two, wounding four and trapping the group. Thus began a series of unsuccessful 'rescue' attempts – escalating into a full-fledged battle.

"Second, the prolonged urban siege had taken the lives of 168 soldiers and 974 terrorists, 13 of them foreigners...87 civilians who died, 40 due to illness, and hundreds of thousands of residents were displaced...

"Perhaps, we'll never know how many of the 974 were really terrorists. Some were hostages forced by the Islamists to shoot at the AFP forces, or else...

"On the third and fourth questions (about the five-month battle costs and rehabilitation), there are no answers found in the four books...cost estimates...run into hundreds of billions. Was this a 'Pyrrhic victory'?

"On the fifth question (when will reconstruction be finished?) ...[at] the 4th anniversary of the battle...the reconstruction is far from complete. Did our AFP have to destroy the whole city of Marawi?"

Aftermath

Government reports an estimated 11,400 displaced families are currently housed at their relatives' and friends' homes mostly outside of Marawi while thousands more wait in temporary shelters. The Marawi Rehabilitation Task Force (MRTF) averred the displaced population could begin returning home at the end of July 2019 (two years ago). Furthermore, "the Department of Human Settlements and Urban Development (DHSUD) Secretary and Task Force Bangon Marawi (TFBM) head Eduardo del Rosario said in a report that the master development plan for the rehabilitation was already 60 percent completed."

This is disputed by Maranao leaders and other civil society organizations from Mindanao under the Marawi Advocacy Accompaniment (MAA) who asked President Duterte to speed up reconstruction of war-torn Marawi city - four years after the siege. The Deegong's promise that Marawi will rise as a prosperous city again continues to remain hollow.

It may be recalled that in government official reports during the siege, the terrorists went on a killing spree carrying out extrajudicial executions on Christian civilian populations "...because they were not Muslim. Militants often gave civilians a de facto religious test prior to killing them; they were asked to recite the Shahada, which is an expression of Muslim faith, or to respond to Muslim greetings. Civilians who did not recite the Shahada or failed to respond appropriately were often summarily executed." Amnesty International after interviewing several witnesses reported accounts of just 25 such executions.

A collateral problem is the unidentified bodies recovered and buried in the Maqbara public cemetery. The police crime laboratory has processed 470 bodies but only four were matched and identified through DNA testing. The rest are unknown victims, terrorists, hostages or simply bystanders.

Samira Gutoc's view

Today Marawi is a desolate place. Initiatives to rebuild homes both by the private sector and government are bereft with problems. This is further complicated by the pandemic, which hit the "bakwits" (the displaced ones) the hardest. As Samira Gutoc wrote, "At the end of each day, as I take a few moments to reflect, one of the questions that comes to mind most often is this: How can we protect an entire country from Covid-19 when we cannot even protect and return home mere thousands of Marawi evacuees, who have been displaced since 2017 and are now subjected to the world's longest lockdown?

"For us, the delays coupled with the neglect of the voices of communities in the city's 'ground zero' contribute further not only to the trauma still being endured by the 'bakwits' of the siege but also to the century-old narrative of marginalization, discrimination and exclusion and social deprivation in Mindanao."

On the fourth anniversary of the siege, Marawi is a powder keg. It can erupt anytime and when it does, Allah/God help us!

MY June 2 column, "Sinicization of PH: On becoming China's 24th province," has elicited comments from readers on both sides of the political divide from the Yellows and the diehard Duterte supporters (DDS) and from the many who are neither.

But critiquing Duterte's contradictory remarks on the West Philippine Sea (WPS) issue and the "arbitral award," particularly my rhetorical question "So, what's wrong with being subsumed by China? - suggesting that the Philippines could become the 24th province of China, has provoked virulent verbal assaults, mostly from a veteran journalist. His defense of the "most respected thinking broadsheet" where we both write columns, turning into "a dirty wall... where angry, brainless slogans are painted in the guise of headlines for inane opinion columns...echoing a crude blogger...is a cheap rabble-rousing means to fool the masses."

If this experienced journalist were professional and diligent enough, he would have discovered that I was echoing the pronouncements, albeit purportedly a joke, of Duterte in a Feb. 18, 2018 forum with the Chinese ambassador in attendance: "...kung gusto ninyo gawain n'yo nalang kaming province of China, 'di wala na tayong problema."

What is really boorish is his use of inelegant language, employed as insults, tempting the recipient to go down to his gutter level of vulgarity. This barrage of personal insults, ad hominem resorting to name calling; "inane," "idiot," "ignorant," "dwindling mental capacities," "asshole" etc. - simply reflects a paucity of imagination and absence of class, fatal for one claiming journalistic excellence.

Impropriety

I couldn't quite fathom his vehemence until it occurred to me that this is expected of one who must rise to the occasion defending his patron, President Duterte from threats as a dog must - displaying canine devotion. The louder the bark, the better to receive a pat on the head and a nice chewy bone from the master to earn his keep. Such sycophancy is shameless and impacts negatively on journalistic integrity.

Writing four columns a week for years at a clip of 1,500 words must have exhausted not only the quality of his prose but also the variety of topics, becoming careless and irresponsible about facts. When one's writing has become stale, take a sabbatical to renew vigor. His columns on the West Philippine Sea (WPS) are like a broken record, repetitively riding only on a few points ad nauseam. Verbally defecating about how PNoy sold us down the river; that the PNoy administration's incompetence lost us our islands in the WPS; that the Americans were the puppet masters in this debacle, blah, blah, blah! - are extraneous. PNoy is no longer president. He is gone. The Deegong is!

I can cite a litany of presidential faux pas for this journalist's education but decided to write another angle to this sordid affair hinting perhaps, with reason, that "...with the President's personal bias against America or perhaps intimidated by China - all these could signal the beginning of the final chapter of the Sinification of our country, China's possible slow but inevitable takeover of the Philippines as its 24th province."

And he has the impudence to ask for proof? What? Please review Duterte's statements from our newspaper; from inviting China to take us in as her province (a joke kuno) to "talo tayo kung magkagiyera" etc. This journalist totally did not get it, failing to extract the nuances of my column. If Duterte says his statements are a joke - then take my statement as a parody!

Higher plane

To put things in proper perspective, my columns are a valid critique of President Duterte's inanities and contradictions regarding the WPS and other Chinese-related issues. Nothing personal. That the arbitral award is just a scrap of paper to be thrown to the wastebasket; his refusal to negotiate with the Chinese for fear of conflict - "we will lose the war"; inviting and allowing hordes of Chinese in the POGO industry to come work in the Philippines; taking away jobs from the locals; allowing Chinese gamblers and the attendant crime; etc. And many more irresponsible and absurd statements. Let the President's official spokesman respond.

Purportedly showing his love of country by shamelessly playing to the crowd himself, he articulates: "How can any Filipino with a shred of self-respect claim that we are becoming 'China's 24th province,' yet does nothing to organize an armed rebellion to topple the government for agreeing to such a thing? He is insulting Filipinos by making such a claim." This is an idiotic and ridiculous declaration by an ex-communist kuno who failed in fomenting a revolution in the 1960s.

But I want to elevate this conversation to a higher plane. We have barely a year before the next administration. Will the President just wash his hands and irresponsibly pass these unresolved Chinese issues on to the next administration? Perhaps to the next president, with him as the VP? God forbid! This journalist's arguments are valid but debatable. I don't have a quarrel with these. My beef is with puerile presidential responses and declarations - and the sycophantic defense of such absurdities. Let me just quote a reader's comment on my column:

"I cannot believe u would even articulate, even if only to provoke, that we might be better off with China. Perhaps they may have significantly eradicated poverty in their own country but at what cost to their own individual freedoms.

No Sir, to exchange Spanish and American colonialism with a Chinese dictatorship is no choice at all."

This is one aspect of my column this journalist was unable to discern with his retort, "If you don't get this man's argumentation, I don't either, after reading his piece several times," subsequently labeling me anti-Chinese racist where comments of some readers make me pro-Chinese. This is one of the noble jobs of a columnist - to provoke critical thinking and shape the public debate - one that this journalist is unable to comprehend.

Where do we go from here

But the WPS questions are still unresolved. How do we help our country work things out? It is not enough to just attack whoever criticizes his patron; vilifying retired Chief Justice Carpio who was challenged to a debate by Duterte - who then backed out; marking anyone who disagrees as "unthinking Yellows" - all ad hominem.

But I will follow this journalist's wise counsel "...not to write some crap that would stain this newspaper's prestige." Good advice from one who has been crapping along in his past newspaper columns and still does. I refuse to go into a pissing contest as angry words don't win arguments, just feeding egos but sometimes it is the only way to confront a bully.

And lastly, I wrote this column not over a carafe of my favorite Argentinian Malbec. I was having a snifter of Remy Martin similar to the one I shared with this journalist when he came to visit me in Davao ages ago - or was that a Hennessy?

In any case, I raise a glass to this clueless one, hoping kind words turn enemies into friends again. Salud!

WE are lending today's space to John Raña, a longtime friend of President Rodrigo "Deegong" Duterte and a management practitioner. I am quoting verbatim his personal assessment of the President's personality, background and thought process, attempting to explain the motivations behind the actuations and decisions, both presidential and personal, and some consequences thereof. John's take of more than 2,500 words has been heavily edited with some redundancy redacted, but the resulting product is as close to his original thoughts as possible. These are John's words and thoughts. Not mine.

DDS revisited
"The acronym DDS has acquired different meanings. To detractors, it is the Davao Death Squad. To fanatics, Duterte Diehard Supporters. To the administration, Davao Development System. Duterte is very results oriented. He prefers shortcuts or trade-offs if that is what it takes to get the job done. The end justifies the means!


"He intended to use the same DDS formula that apparently worked fine in Davao City. Mayor Duterte transformed Davao from a lair of lawlessness to a city of relative peace and palpable development. It was his reputation as a top and tough local executive that catapulted him to the presidency.

Digong governance style
"His decision-making process can be considered largely gut feel and emotion-motivated. When triggered, his words and actions betray his unfiltered emotions. These traits endeared him to his constituents by producing instant results, arguably very effective at the micro level of governance like a city or municipality.

"In contrast, any statement or decision by the President would have far-reaching implications and therefore must be subjected to what former President FVR called CSW (complete staff work). In short, when the president talks, that's 'policy,' which should be the product of CSW, including extensive research, incisive study and rational deliberation. When a spokesman constantly explains what the President 'really meant,' that's a telltale sign of absence of CSW.

Personal
"To Digong, everything is personal. As mayor, he personally attended to his Davao constituents. He even had a personal assistant, Bong Go, as his de facto surrogate. However, (as the president), personal interaction becomes impractical, thus, he had to rely more and more on his... heretofore unheard-of position of Special Assistant to the President (SAP). SAP Bong Go (even as a senator) serves as the main gatekeeper to and for the President. The SAP arrangement made Duterte even more inaccessible, it gave Senator Bong Go tremendous power who now wants (seriously?) to be the next president, that is, if Sara will not run and Digong runs as his vice president.

"Rational management calls for separation of a leader's views from his persona. This is critically important so that multiple, even contrary, perspectives can be ventilated and discussed. Candid exchanges should in fact be encouraged and not perceived as an assault on the ego of the leader.

Autocratic
"He wants his orders followed asap. Period. That may explain his preference for military men and those who were within his professional and personal orbit. They are expected to obey without question.

"He prefers compliance by reason of force rather than by force of reason. The former brings instantaneous results, the brand of leadership loved and feared at the same time.

"He usually abhors contrary opinions, especially when made public. When called out, he doubles down. A good example is the WPS issue regarding conflicting claims with China.

"1. He will plant the Philippine flag in the Spratlys even if he has to ride a jet-ski. (Now, he claims that was a joke.)

"2. He said that toward the end of his term, he will confront China on the arbitral ruling in favor of the Philippines. (Now, he calls the arbitral decision a mere scrap of useless paper.)

"3. He challenged former Supreme Court justice Antonio Carpio to a debate. (He correctly backed out but not before being embarrassed.)

Duterte's vision
"The vision of candidate Duterte was simple as effective messaging must be a more comfortable life for the Filipino. He broke it down into three major programs:

"War on illegal drugs. Violence or the threat thereof was the tool of choice. Under 'Operation Tokhang,' thousands of suspected pushers and users were neutralized because 'nanlaban' (they fought it out). Methamphetamine (shabu) labs were dismantled, drug lords were on the run, some so-called narco politicians were eliminated.

"The war on illegal drugs is the President's personal war. 'Don't do it during my watch.' But precisely that›s the rub, what happens after his watch? Sustainability must be a prime consideration, particularly with a festering malaise like illegal drugs.

"Let's face it, illegal drugs and other syndicated crimes can only flourish with the tolerance, protection or incompetence of the mayor, police chief and barangay chairman. If they are unable to stop large-scale drug trade and use, they are at the very least incompetent, ergo, corrupt.

"War on corruption. President Duterte promised to get rid of corruption in government. His marching orders, no sacred cows. He constantly proclaimed that 'not even a whiff' of corruption shall be tolerated.

"Since this is his personal war, he alone decides the application of the much-ballyhooed standard. Unfortunately, there appears to be personal sacred cows.

"The Anti-Red Tape law is a step in the right direction. Lacking are comprehensive and systemic solutions. The irony of it all is that under the present setup, proposals to curb corruption are to be studied, evaluated, and recommended by the corruption-prone agencies themselves.

"In sum, merely apply basic management principles: Simplify. No exceptions to the rule, otherwise the exceptions become the rule.

"Peace and development. Sadly, the communists overplayed their hand. They demanded a coalition government. Duterte somehow accommodated them. While peace talks were in progress, the NPA was also escalating atrocities, casting doubt on the sincerity of the CPP-NPA-NDF. Another golden opportunity missed by the Left.

"The peace talk with the Moro group was more fruitful with the signing of the BARMM providing for greater autonomy. Perhaps this could be the baby steps and experimentation toward federalism.

"In fairness, there are bright spots in the Duterte administration:

"– Prior to the Covid-19 pandemic, the economy was robust with record foreign exchange reserves.

"– The Build, Build, Build program ushered in the 'golden age of infrastructure.'

"– The one-stop-shop Malasakit Center is a welcome development to those seeking help for health concerns.

"The Balik Probinsya, Balik Pag-asa (BP2) was a good program but lacked the requisite social and economic safety nets.

DDS formula consequences
"Contrary to what some opine as Duterte being unpredictable, he is quite predictable. Every issue is personal. His default response to opposing ideas is a threat laced with expletives. Nothing has changed in his behavior since he was a city mayor.

"This has spawned dysfunctional and counterproductive behavior of those who have to deal with the President. This had the following adverse effects:

"– Discouraged healthy and rational exchanges that could have produced better informed decisions.

"– Encouraged sycophancy as a survival mechanism, saying and doing only what pleases the President.

"– Alienated even supporters with sincere desire to help the administration."

Now that Duterte has gagged his people from publicly discussing China and the West Philippine Seas (WPS) issue, the President has effectively quarantined the policy formulation process within his own bubble - sterilized from ideas emanating from outside inputs and vaccinated from public debates that are an integral part of good and effective governance.

Add to this his fatuous declaration that the arbitral award was just a piece of paper that he can throw away, contradicting himself when he appeared before the United Nations General Assembly in September 2020, rejecting any attempt to undermine the said arbitral ruling. And with the President's personal bias against America or perhaps intimidated by China - all these could signal the beginning of the final chapter of the Sinification of our country, China's possible slow but inevitable takeover of the Philippines as its 24th province or maybe the sixth autonomous region with the same status as Inner Mongolia or Tibet. Filipinos may opt for a Special Administrative Region (SAR) category similar to Hong Kong and Macau - considering Pinoys' love for shopping, excellent Chinese cuisine and gambling.

Spanish and American heritage

For so long, we were under the Spanish colonialists, who, for three and a half centuries, successfully imparted religion but not so much the language of the motherland. Language is the cultural soul and the construct that molds the dreams and aspiration of a people. True, it was spoken by the Filipino and Spanish elites of the time, but only the remnants of Kastila have survived in the board rooms of a few venerable businesses in Makati. Most no longer speak the language except at some elite schools - pretentiously reduced to telegraphic monosyllabic utterances of "coño-coño," passing themselves off as mestizo descendants of the peninsulares and insulares.

Under America's tutelage for a period less than a third of Spain's, we took to heart the rugged individualism of the west but more importantly, the American language. Thanks principally to the Thomasites who arrived in 1901, who liberalized education and taught their little brown brothers English, propagated and democratized the same. Today we speak our vernacular at home but mostly English as a second tongue once we step out - the lingo of business and the dominant transmission mechanism for information, communication and social media networking; likewise, the dominant text of academic papers, technical books and even literature. Many Filipinos think in English and articulate in the dialect for informal talk and street conversation. But the cosmopolitan elite and educated middle class if they have to speak formally in public or in conferences do so in English, distinguishing themselves from the rural folks. But English serves to stitch communications among a diversity of languages and dialects.


Four hundred years of Spanish and American influence resulted in a Filipino three-way personality split. We have the ingrained convent-bred values and Catholic Church-oriented beliefs blended with our superstitions and animism; the permissiveness of Hollywood and stoicism of the East; all these anchored in our Malay ethnicity, patois and diversity. We are a mishmash of cultures and, sometimes, contradictory proclivities. We are impervious to cultural onslaught inculcating in us a resiliency that could be the core of our survival as a people - as a nation.

Chinese influence and accomplishments

So, what's wrong with being subsumed by China? We have been trading with the Chinese for the better part of our known and written history, longer than Spain and America. Artifacts point to thriving communities and insights into peaceful lives with the Chinese. These Sangleys (frequent visitors) were traders, but mass migration occurred from Fujian and Guangdong provinces to avoid poverty and worsening famine in China. And "encik" denoted an address of respect - "venerable uncle" - until sometime in the past covered now by the mists of time, Intsik assumed pejorative connotations. But until now, my Tagalog family still uses endearing titles of familial respect: kuya, ate, dikong and diche for eldest brother, eldest sister, second oldest brother and second eldest sister. And my Filipino grandchildren consider their yayas or amahs as surrogate mothers. The Chinese never did try to colonize us the way Spain and America did although these cultures influenced us in many positive ways.

The Philippines' future

We have been emulating the democratic system handed down to us by Mother America for a hundred years - a concept now fraying at the edges. Thanks to the US' unhinged former president, it has exposed to the bone America's weaknesses, its inner rot. Their democratic system of governance is imploding. Yet it is not America's fault that our aping America's lead has not given us the advantages. The blame is on us, principally our political leadership. After World War 2, we were reportedly economically second only to Japan in Asia. Now, we are known as the service providers of the world, nurses, caregivers, sailors; not that these are dishonorable jobs giving our families dollar-income, practically shoring up our economy, but we need a better mix in our industries. Our Asian neighbors have overtaken us; in industries, technologies and by many metrics even in agriculture and food production.

China's accomplishments may rub off on us. From World Bank and multilateral agencies, they are one in their conclusion that "...under the leadership of the Communist Party of China (CPC), the world's largest developing country has achieved a complete eradication of extreme poverty, raising more than 770 million poor people from poverty since its reform and opening up in late 1970s." We could cite a litany of achievements of China spurred by their government under their communist party, which is anathema to America's concept of governance which we Filipinos emulate. Freedom and liberty were always the American rallying cry and core concepts of democracy. Not necessarily ours. We would probably be better off with China.

But there is a negative flip side to China-centrism. Learning to speak the language and reading and writing the logo-syllabic pinyin system would be difficult to the alphabet-oriented. But imbibing the culture would be a cinch as we have more centuries of Chinese than Western influence. The locally born Tsinoys (Chinese Filipinos) comprise almost 30 percent of the population and are mostly well-integrated. Chinese Filipino blood runs in our Malay veins.

But in a December 2019 SWS poll, 53 percent of Filipinos consider that the number of Chinese (not Tsinoys) working in the Philippines is a "threat" to the country's security. The Bureau of Immigration (BI) estimates a spike of mostly legalized 3 million Chinese entering the country between 2016 and 2018 coinciding with Duterte's closer ties to China. And they are taking blue-collar jobs after Duterte's declaration to "let them work here"!

So, perhaps, Duterte's China-centric posturing is food for thought. We don't negotiate with China. We surrender! For the Deegong, confronting China is a zero-sum game resulting inevitably in war; too incompetent to seek other alternatives than just to pass it on to the next administration. And his promise to jet-ski to the WPS planting a flag to assert our sovereign rights is after all just a joke.

And guess who is the biggest joke of all?!

YES! Covid-19 will end sometime, but not until Covid has exterminated hundreds of millions, maybe one-third to a half of the world's population - short of near-total annihilation of the human race. I hope this will not come to pass. But it could. This figure is borne out by mathematical extrapolation - not by a simple conjectural erudition or a stab into the unknown. It is based on the history of pandemic occurrences on the planet. From the earliest one recorded in 430 BC in Athens, killing a quarter of its inhabitants; through the Black Death in Europe from 1347 to 1453 that claimed one third of the Earth's population, then estimated at somewhere between 443 to 478 million. The 1918 Spanish Flu alone took 50 million lives (3 percent) out of an estimated 1.8 billion souls. Today, the world population is nearing 7.5 billion. Just imagine a 3-percent morbidity rate before the virus disappears - a mind-boggling 208 million people.

Death tolls continue with the appearances of the contagion, from the Asian flu during 1957 to 1958 (2 million), Hong Kong flu during 1968 to 1970 (1 million) to the lesser pandemics, SARS, MERS-CoV and the Ebola virus; and even the ongoing HIV/AIDS that started in 1981, claiming 35 million lives. Outbreaks appear intermittently despite advances in disease prevention technologies. Also, empirical data suggests that they ravage a particular segment of society. The poor, the destitute and the helpless - the dregs of society.

Population growth

Anthropologists debate how long-ago humanoids walked the Earth - somewhere from 6 million to 200,000 years - marking the emergence of homo sapiens, our direct ancestors; from whence human population reached 1 billion for the first time in 1804. Then, it would take only a little over a century to hit 2 billion - in 1927; another half a century to double that to 4 billion in 1974; and just 13 years to reach 5 billion in 1987. We are now approximately 7.8 billion. Earth's population is dangerously exploding by any measure.

The impact of population growth on the Earth's resources could be dramatic. While the former grows exponentially, production of food and resources does so in a linear progression - with population eventually outstripping Earth's carrying capabilities to sustain life. Thomas Malthus, the 18th century philosopher, declared succinctly, "The power of population is so superior to the power of the Earth to produce subsistence for man that premature death must, in some shape or other, visit the human race." By 2050, at current growth rates, the United Nations predicts the world population could reach 9.6 billion. Demographic experts argue 10 billion is Earth's maximum population carrying capacity.

A tangential issue is the stress impacting nature itself. Climate change, energy shortages, pollution of air and water resulting in environmental degradation and the extinction of many species of flora and fauna.

Man vs nature

The deadly family of the Ebola virus may have originated from African fruit bats transmitted to man - and eventually from human to human. Ebola has appeared from time to time in the African continent, particularly Zaire, and has mutated into several forms. Similarly, the Covid-19 virus that was first detected in Wuhan, China, reportedly jumped from another species of bat, which was a local delicacy. It is not so much that they add variety to Chinese cuisine, but the issue is even deeper than that. This goes to the core of the loss of habitat - precipitated by man's encroachment into nature's domain. Even the ordinary domesticated animals used for food have wreaked havoc on the human population over time. The intermittent appearances of the contagion, from the Asian and Hong Kong flu to the SARS, MERS-CoV, have been traced to viruses from fowls and four-footed animals - chicken, pigs and cattle.

Vaccines

Man is not totally helpless in the face of the onslaught of virus outbreaks as shown by his ingenuity in centuries past. We have had several types of virus, germs or biological anomalies attacking man, but we always managed to vanquish them. And we survive - but at a deadly cost.

For one, the smallpox virus that reportedly killed 3 out of every 10 people over the millennia from the 3rd century BC was only cured after a breakthrough in vaccine development at the end of the 18th century in England. It will be noted too that inoculations are a relatively old remedy against this virus dating back as early as 1000 BC in China, parts of Africa and Turkey. A breakthrough by pioneering work in vaccination and technological advancements eventually eradicated smallpox within 200 years.

But scientists also submit that these viruses have been mutating faster than man's advancement in new technologies. This was the scientists' conjecture on the Spanish flu. The main cause of death was "bacterial pneumonia secondary to influenza," which could have been alleviated by antibiotics which had not yet been discovered at that time.

Another school of thought proposes that a virus eventually loses its virulence once it has replicated and mutated decimating a substantial portion of its host - a large segment of Earth's population. But it will not totally kill its host. After a time, it remains in our body in a benign state or just lurking around. Outbreaks of the virus derivatives may occur from time to time - nature's way perhaps of warning man of his transgressions and impending doom.


PH situation

To date, we are 110 million Filipinos. We were 1.89 million in 1880. In a hundred years we hit 6.5 million. By the turn of the 20th century, we reached 76.5 million. In 2018, before Covid-19 distorted the figures, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) studies showed 16.7 percent of the population live below the poverty line - a monthly income of less than P10,000, barely enough to meet the basic food and nonfood needs of a family of five. With Covid, the Philippines by any measure is in dire straits. With the continued lockdown, the economy is in tatters, unemployment is soaring, and hunger stalks the land. The pantry feeding programs of the private sector and the government subsidy are just palliatives. Government policies on population growth are distorted by the powerful Roman Catholic Church hierarchy. This may be debatable and a good topic for another column. But in relation to the pandemic and the population impact, I refer to a fictionalized version, very descriptive of what's happening today. In the movie "Inferno," based on a Dan Brown book, Bertrand Zobrist, the fanatic-environmentalist-billionaire, holds a device that will unleash a plague upon the Earth, declared:

"We are destroying the very means by which life is sustained...every single global ill that plagues the Earth can be traced to human overpopulation...We clear-cut. We dump. We consume. We destroy. Half the animal species on Earth have vanished in the last 40 years. But still, we keep attacking our own environment. Does it take a catastrophe to learn our lesson? To get our attention. Nothing changes behavior like pain. Maybe pain can save us."

Now we are undergoing this pain - this pandemic. I find the theme compelling and very descriptive of what could happen next.

MANILA, Philippines — President Duterte may have used “inaccurate” language in discussing the country’s maritime row with China, but his views on the issue have been consistent, his spokesman Harry Roque Jr. said yesterday.

Roque said when the President pointed out that China was in possession of the “West Philippine Sea,” he was referring to Panatag Shoal.

And when the President called the 2016 arbitral ruling a “piece of paper,” he was referring to the fact that under international law, there is no way to enforce the decision unless there is a collective security measure, Roque added.

“You know, my role as spokesperson is to clarify what the President is saying,” the Palace spokesman said.

“Let us put everything in context. Perhaps when it comes to the language of the President, he may not be as accurate, but he was consistent in what he was saying. So the ‘China in control of West Philippine Sea’ – that refers to Scarborough; the ‘It is a piece of paper’ – it’s because under international law, there is no established enforcement mechanism,” he added.

Roque was asked to react to the call of San Beda alumni for Duterte to retract his public statement on the West Philippine Sea and to uphold, defend and protect the integrity of the Philippines’ national territory. Duterte obtained his law degree from San Beda in 1972.

Roque also said former Senate president Juan Ponce Enrile has accepted Duterte’s invitation to join him in his public address to discuss the West Philippine Sea row.

Roque said Enrile was expected to meet with the President yesterday to talk about how the Philippines lost Panatag (Scarborough) Shoal to China and why the United States brokered a deal between the two countries during the 2012 standoff between the Philippine Navy and Chinese maritime surveillance ships.

“Tonight, former Senate president Juan Ponce Enrile will be the guest in the talk to the people. The President said former senator Enrile was there right at the beginning,” Roque said at a press briefing yesterday.

“We have to listen to what he will say as a former senator because it would be good to know the roles of former senator Antonio Trillanes and former (foreign) secretary Albert del Rosario in the loss of Panatag Shoal,” he added.

Duterte has been discussing the West Philippine Sea issue in his recent public addresses to rebut claims that he is not doing enough to assert the Philippine position.

Last week, the President revealed that he had invited the 97-year-old former lawmaker to discuss the dispute because he admires his “understanding” of the problem.

“It’s for Philippines history. Until now, we do not know the role of (former) senator Trillanes, what are the contents of what is called the ‘Brady notes’ that was given to him when he (Enrile) was Senate president,” Roque said.

He was referring to the notes of former Philippine ambassador to China Sonia Brady about her meeting with Trillanes, who had held backdoor negotiations with Chinese officials on the maritime row.

“We need also his (Enrile) insights because he was the longest serving secretary of national defense in our country and during the Marcos administration, PD (Presidential Decree) 1596, which declared Kalayaan Island Group as part of our territory, started,” Roque added.

Roque claimed that China started building military bases on artificial islands in the West Philippine Sea in response to the arbitral case filed by the Philippines during the previous administration. The case, which challenged China’s expansive claim in the South China Sea, was filed partly because of the 2012 Panatag standoff.

An arbitral court based in The Hague ruled in favor of the Philippines in 2016 and voided China’s claims.

“That means the Scarborough Shoal incident is the reason why China has military bases on the artificial islands, most of which are part of our exclusive economic zone,” Roque said.

Duterte has accused Del Rosario of ordering the pullout of Philippine ships from Panatag Shoal in 2012.

Del Rosario, however, insisted that China was to blame for the crisis because it breached an agreement with the Philippines to withdraw ships from the shoal.

Exaggerated assistance
Meanwhile, Sen. Risa Hontiveros has questioned the Duterte administration’s persistent exaggeration of Chinese aid and development assistance to the Philippines.

The senator also disputed Malacañang’s statements that the country owes a huge “debt of gratitude” to China.

“We don’t owe anything to China. Perhaps Palace officials are still indebted to Beijing. It is surprising that those in power in Malacañang are protecting the name of China, even though the stench of their abuse of Filipinos in the West Philippine Sea is overpowering,” she said. “What is the root of the special friendship they are talking about?”

The senator issued the statement as the government’s Investor Relations Office recently shared that China ranks only fifth among the Philippines’ sources of official development assistance. Japan remains the country’s top provider of ODA and infrastructure development partners.

The others are Asian Development Bank, the World Bank and South Korea. Japan’s total ODA to the Philippines hit $11.2 billion.

Despite the Palace’s much-vaunted pivot to China, Beijing’s ODA amounted to only $600 million.

“Malacañang should stop misleading the public. They should not pretend that China is the leading country in providing aid and loans to the Philippines. At first, it said Build, Build, Build. Why did it become Bow, Bow, Bow I guess? China is already seizing our territory in the WPS, then, are we still indebted? We, here in the Philippines, are the losers because of Malacañang’s behavior,” Hontiveros said.

In 2018, President Duterte said that China is an “important ingredient” in the Build, Build, Build program.

However, in November 2019, it was revealed that out of the 75 planned projects under the program, only nine had started construction. The poor completion rate was brought up in plenary deliberations on the proposed 2020 budget.

“Poor in a business sense, poor in foreign relations, poor in standing ground against bullies. That is what this administration is showing. More than 200 Chinese ships are still inside the country. Various sectors have protested, pleaded and stood up several times. It’s just the Palace that doesn’t go with the wind when she takes sides with the best friend,” Hontiveros added.

FOR more than a century, May 1 has been celebrated as “Araw ng mga Manggagawa.” The first Philippine Labor Day celebration was in 1903, when Filipino workers protested against “American capitalism and imperialism” — a recurring theme that underpinned countless labor marches since then. These occurrences, peaceful or otherwise, produced results: enactment of the 8-hour day work, weekly days off, safe working environment and the right to collective bargaining agreements.

The origin of Labor Day is undetermined, but certain dates have been commemorated. May 4, 1886 was one such in Haymarket Square in Chicago where a peaceful protest in support of workers’ demand for an 8-hour workday turned violent, resulting in the deaths of police officers and injury to dozens of civilians. It will be recalled that the industrial revolution that started in Great Britain had the workingmen and even children working from 12 hours or more a day.

Since then, Labor Day in America is celebrated on the first Monday in September with the workers’ ideological anthem reverberating over the years — “8 hours for work. 8 hours for rest. 8 hours for what we will.”

PH labor scene
Laborers and peasant street protests in the Philippines historically echo the ideological divide in Europe brought about by the logical transition from the decay of feudalism towards capitalism, the core of the industrial revolution, where the confrontation of labor and capital has become rampant.

As a method of collective expression of dissatisfaction against government and authority, grievances against landlords and the upper-class — justified or not — protest and marches have become the primary tools with sharpened technology by the extreme left and right of the political spectrum.

‘Endo’
A multitude of issues confront labor, but the most irritating and contemporary is the endo. Short for end-of-contract employment of a worker’s fixed short-term work, where employees are hired for a specific number of months (six months) and automatically terminated — skirting the “regularization of employment” when other benefits like PhilHealth, SSS benefits, Medicare, vacation leaves, etc. kick in. This notorious practice has been prevalent in the country for decades and labor and capital are conflicted on the issue.

In the presidential campaign of 2015-2016, the candidate most vocal against contractualization was the Deegong. His stand that endo is not for the country endeared him to labor and the masses. “I will end it. It will not be my policy when elected,” he said. He punctuated it with a bluster that has become his signature gambit, “I challenge those who disagreed with me to make sure I lose the presidential race.” And he got the nod of the guileless labor sector.

But this year’s May 1 (Labor Day) manifesto and declaration morphed into a more drastic play on endo — giving it a much more lethal meaning. As translated from Filipino: “A ruined economy, massive destruction of jobs, rising prices of goods and services, inadequate aid, poor health response, intensified repression of trade union and human rights, endless disrespect of women, and the surrender of the West Philippine Sea to China, the point of view of workers, sum up and represent Duterte’s failed leadership, thus the Labor Day call for “ENDOterte, or an end to the Duterte administration.” To understand this menu of complaints toward a rising frustration, a cursory review from the start of PRRD’s regime to the present could be a guide.

Devil’s timeline (courtesy of TUCP)
It all started on March 16, 2017 when the Department of Labor (DoLE) released Department Order 174, setting strict guidelines on contractualization. But one clause labor considers obnoxious was inserted: “under this order, manpower agencies that hire these employees — not the main employers — are ordered to regularize their workers.” Labor was up in arms on this “betrayal of DU30’s campaign promise.” Adding salt to the wound was a subsequent declaration: “Prohibition of all forms of contractualization is beyond the powers of the secretary of labor. DoLE can only regulate contracting and subcontracting.”

Labor Day 2017
In April 2017, PRRD allowed the drafting of a substitute executive order (EO), with labor’s input and subsequently a bold declaration on May 1, 2017, Labor Day: “I stand firm in my conviction to stop ‘endo.’ Workers have a right to security of tenure. To this end, I will create an executive order directing strict provisions against ‘endo.’” This turned out to be a “forked-tongue” statement by the President in an obvious pattern of guile. By November 2017, after months of dillydallying, DoLE and labor agreed to a draft EO prohibiting labor-only contracting with certain exemptions instead of just regulating the practice.

By Jan. 17, 2018, after months of stalling, Duterte vowed to sign an EO against contractualization “anytime soon.” On March 15, 2018. Duterte misses his own “anytime soon” deadline. Pissed off, labor groups decided to bare its fangs and marched to Mendiola to denounce the delay.

Then a bombshell from senior deputy executive secretary Menardo Guevarra: “The total ban itself is something we cannot do by EO…substantial provisions can only be achieved by amending the country’s Labor Code — an act the legislative branch can do, but not the executive branch.”

This game of “moro-moro” continued until the fifth version of the draft EO was scheduled to be signed by PRRD on April 16. Two days prior, Malacañang announced the signing had been postponed for the next Labor Day on May 1, 2018.

Labor Day 2018
Then, a cop-out! “Much as I would like to do the impossible, that power is not vested upon me by the Constitution. And neither will I make both ends meet even if I violate the laws to achieve that purpose. Simply, it is not part of my territory,” the President said. After washing his hands of signing an EO, Duterte sent to Congress an urgent security of tenure (SoT) bill — this time against the vehement objections of the business community.

Congress did its part to enact Senate Bill 1826 and the End of Endo Act of 2018. The Lower House subsequently adopted a watered-down version of the bill. It has probably never occurred to the ingenuous labor sector that both houses of Congress are bastions of the oligarchy. This naiveté verging on labor stupidity was pervasive — with their position of “better than nothing.” The Federation of Free Workers, Partido Manggagawa and Trade Union Congress of the Philippines argue that while the bill has its weaknesses, it can still be used to improve the situation of millions who suffer from contractualization schemes.

In a final insult to labor, after months of being screwed, on July 26, 2019, Duterte officially vetoed the SoT that he himself had sent to Congress as urgent.

2019, 2020 Labor Day
The saga continues with Congress stringing along labor with a passage of another bill — House Bill 7036 with all sorts of convoluted definitions of illegal contractualization. At this juncture, one can hardly sympathize with labor’s plight. “Fool me once, shame on you, fool me twice, shame on me. Fool me thrice – shame on both of us.” Five labor days, they have been screwed. Next is election week 2022 — another traditional Labor Day castration. Today’s call for ENDOterte is a sad testament to the dominance of the man with the balls doing labor’s emasculation. Sad!

PRESIDENTS are bestowed political powers by virtue of the legitimacy of their election. This makes President Rodrigo Roa Duterte (PRRD) the most powerful person in government. Those wrapped with the penumbra of power are suffused by it not so much by proximity, but by people’s perception thereof. Sen. Christopher Lawrence “Bong” Go (SBG), the most loyal of the presidential coterie and erstwhile photo-bomber, has complete insider privileged access, making him the most influential functionary. Since his Davao salad days, he was Duterte’s executive assistant, a faithful friend, one who will do the President’s bidding without question and will take a bullet for him. As SBG himself admitted, he owes everything to the President and in return Duterte has reciprocated by showering him with pelf and prestige, causing his elevation to senator of the Republic — the ultimate in presidential “bayad sa utang na loob.”

The President’s singular act simply mirrors the peculiar state of our governance — the preponderance of patronage over meritocracy. PRRD demonstrated his dominance over the Filipino voter’s psyche, particularly of his fist-pumping DDS — Diehard Duterte Supporters — base. The 2018 to 2019 electoral campaign was a bizarre tutorial on the regime’s wanton use of government machinery in combination with social media trolls to select unqualified nonentities as candidates, trusting only the say-so of the patron.

A creature of circumstance, SBG’s politics and accomplishment are not his, even those crafted motherhood statements labeling broadsheet pictorials depicting his preferential treatment for the poor victims of countless fires and calamities; distributing food, goodies and running shoes; all of these dreadfully orchestrated undoubtedly by an expensive team of media handlers.

But the ascendant quality which is exclusively SBG’s is a canine devotion to the patron — the senator cum glorified executive assistant — making a mockery of the constitutional separation of the independent branches of government. Nevertheless, such devotion is endearing to countless Filipino parents as the ultimate in filial piety — one Duterte reciprocates with warmth toward SBG. Such display transcends blood — save for daughter Sara’s — causing perhaps a veiled animosity toward each other, analogous to sibling rivalry. Cynics may look at Bong Go as the son the Deegong never had.

Little presidents
Never has there been such an intimate bonding phenomenon in Philippine politics as far as anyone can remember. There are equivalent relationships particularly with executive secretaries nicknamed “Little Presidents,” the most senior ranking official of the Office of the President — but never approaching filial intimacy. Current Executive Secretary Salvador “Bingbong” Medialdea, Duterte’s childhood friend and former personal lawyer, has a self-effacing personality, a gentle giant who likewise has the total trust and confidence of the President, projecting a low profile from the start of this regime. He speaks for and on behalf of the President and technically, in terms of formal functions should be the most powerful man next to the President — but is not. He is never seen as a permanent fixture around the presidential presence akin to a caregiver hovering over a patient. But he strikes one as a person who plays safe, keeps his nose clean and avoids controversies, yet holds influence and exercises authority discreetly.

In the past, notable personages served the country in other capacities after their stint as “little presidents”: Fred Ruiz Castro, President Ramon Magsaysay’s executive secretary, appointed later as Chief Justice of the Supreme Court; probably the trajectory of Bingbong Medialdea, whose father was himself a Supreme Court Associate Justice during Cory Aquino’s administration.

Others parlayed their Malacañang stint into electoral prominence. Among them are Ernesto Maceda, 1996-1998, Ferdinand Marcos’ executive secretary; Joker Arroyo, 1986-1987 and Franklin Drilon, 1991-1992, Cory Aquino’s; Teofisto Guingona, 1993-1995 Fidel V. Ramos’; Edgardo Angara, 2002, Joseph Estrada’s; and Alberto Romulo, 2002-2004, Gloria Macapagal Arroyo’s. These executive secretaries, powerful men, served their president’s well before moving on; attaining greater heights; giants of their time serving the country with distinction – elected senators of the Republic — having proven themselves first as professional bureaucrats.

One notable name could be that of Manuel Roxas who went on to become the fifth President of the Philippines. Commonwealth President Manuel Quezon designated him executive secretary and successor to the presidency in case Quezon or Vice President Sergio Osmena was captured or killed by the Japanese.

Many Filipinos now speculate that this could be the path that the Deegong has laid out for Sen. Bong Go as the next president; jokingly as it turned out, as he also mentioned — not endorsed — Pacquaio, Bongbong Marcos and other personalities.

The realities
This is not to disparage the man. But Sen. Bong Go will not be president. “…alam naman po ng Pangulo na hindi talaga ako interesado. Biro lang ng Pangulo iyon” (Duterte’s just joking). SBG was astute and humble enough to see through the President. And he could have just ended there. But he ventured on, “…magbabago lang siguro ang isip ko kung tatakbong Vice President si Pangulong Duterte.” This statement defines Bong Go — a pregnant declaration that can give birth to a trove of arguments and ridicule pointing toward why he does not deserve the presidency.

The “presidency is destiny” that one must salivate for, according to a tired old cliché. The Deegong as a vice president cannot be a sine qua non for another man’s presidency. Even PRRD sees this as a shamefully idiotic arrangement – that only the ignorant zealotry adheres to. And Duterte is not an idiot!

SBG’s assertion reveals a naiveté, unable to grasp the majesty of the office. The president is not a collective. He is on top of the totem pole where the fates of men and mice are decided.

The Philippine president must have a vision to where he leads his people, embodying qualities of greatness even a pretense thereof to inspire his people to follow. “I will run for president only if Duterte is my vice-president,” does not inspire. The role of caregiver for one man ends when one is caregiver for all Filipinos!

A danger to SBG winning the presidency by proxy is that inevitably he will be co-opted by sycophants much brighter than he. What an irony for this reversal of roles reducing Bong Go’s presidency into a grand sycophancy while VP Duterte continues to rule. The tragedy is this parody escapes the good senator.

Learning process
The Deegong, steeped in the arcana of traditional politics understand this only too well. True, he needs to finish what he set out to do and mindful of his mortality, must frantically pass on his political legacy to someone who embodies his illusions of greatness; yet he cannot do it with his progeny — nor with a doppelgänger. This is too divisive for the Filipino to tolerate. His legacy will be defined by his choices beyond his kin.

SBG is doing passably well as a senator. But he has yet to cut his teeth as a neophyte in the art of lawmaking — a necessary consequence of intellectual confrontation, debate and negotiations with his peers in the halls of the Senate. His refusal to be interpellated after his speeches either reflects his fear of a clash of ideas, the currency of lawmaking; or his inadequacies are simply overwhelming. He has to be his own man shedding his patron and perhaps, someday, he can be president. But not in 2022!