The Centrist View: Back to Basics

In an era marked by deepening social divides, persistent inequality, and political uncertainty, the Philippines stands at a critical juncture in its national life. Competing ideologies vie for dominance, often pulling the nation toward extremes. Amid this turbulence, a centrist perspective — rooted in the principles of human dignity and human rights — offers a balanced and principled framework for rebuilding trust, safeguarding citizens, and renewing democratic life.

Human Dignity as the Foundation of Rights and Responsibilities

At the core of the centrist vision is the belief that every Filipino possesses inherent human dignity — not conferred by the state, but intrinsic to being human. This dignity forms the moral and legal foundation of all human rights: civil liberties, political participation, and access to essential services such as education, healthcare, and livelihood.

But dignity is more than an entitlement; it is also a responsibility. It calls on individuals not only to claim their own rights but also to respect and uphold the rights of others — in speech, in conduct, and in civic life. The Centrist View affirms that rights and responsibilities are inseparable, and that a just society depends on mutual recognition of each person’s worth.

Human Rights in a Divided Political Landscape

In recent years, human rights in the Philippines have become a flashpoint — celebrated by some as the bedrock of democracy, dismissed by others as a hindrance to order and discipline. The centrist approach resists this false binary.

Instead, it upholds human rights as non-negotiable, especially for the most vulnerable: victims of extrajudicial killings, displaced indigenous communities, and ordinary citizens left behind by corruption and impunity. At the same time, it recognizes the need to contextualize rights within the broader social fabric — considering public safety, poverty, and institutional capacity.

The absolute moral positions of the Church — opposition to abortion, divorce, and same-sex marriage — moral truths which many Filipinos adopt unquestioningly, conflict with human rights discourses or secular principles such as reproductive health, women’s rights, and LGBTQ inclusion. The war on drugs under the Duterte administration was often justified using absolute moral language — portraying drug use as an evil that must be eradicated at all cost. This moral framing enabled EJK and human rights abuses, with limited public resistance due to the perceived moral righteousness of the campaign.

The anti-corruption rhetoric (all corruption is evil) uses moral absolutism (that certain actions are inherently right or wrong regardless of context, consequences, or cultural norms) but the application of justice in the Philippines is frequently selective, exposing the hypocrisy and dangers of absolutism when wielded by those in power. Human rights violations during Martial Law (torture, illegal detentions, censorship) can be judged as morally wrong in absolute terms, regardless of the justifications of national security or economic progress. However, moral relativism is often used to justify or downplay these events, especially by those who benefit from historical revisionism or political dynasties.

The late dictator son’s administration has emphasized technocratic leadership — appointing economic managers, military officials, and political elites into key positions — often sidelining consultative, grassroots-driven policy-making. His seeming focus on stability and economic continuity is reflected in his cabinet choices; still this pragmatic approach is viewed as centralizing authority and downplays participative governance, especially from civil society organizations, marginalized sectors, and opposition voices.

The DepEd and CHED directives to revise or soften the language around martial law abuses reflect a systemic push toward historical revisionism, legitimizing the current administration while erasing past atrocities. In lieu of outright censorship, the present administration uses strategic communication and digital manipulation through troll farms, algorithmic manipulation, and disinformation campaigns, to promote a favorable image. Contrary opinions and criticisms are viewed as “fake news” and attempts to discredit the administration are seen as libelous that merit congressional inquiry, purportedly, in aid of legislation.

The administration exhibits a form of authoritarian pragmatism more subtle than the previous dictatorship but no less concerning in its long-term implications. The challenge for Filipinos today is to critically assess this pragmatism: who benefits, who is silenced, and at what cost is “progress” achieved.

The Centrist View rejects both moral absolutism and authoritarian pragmatism. It seeks to foster a culture in which human rights are not only enshrined in law but also respected in practice, and where governance is accountable, transparent, and humane.

Rebuilding Trust in Institutions and the Rule of Law

The erosion of public trust in the justice system and the prevalence of political patronage have undermined faith in democratic institutions. When laws are applied unequally — when the wealthy and powerful escape accountability while the poor face violence and neglect — human dignity suffers.

A centrist response calls for the revitalization of institutions as a moral imperative:

• A justice system that is impartial, efficient, and accessible to all;
• Security forces that serve the Constitution and the people, not personal or political interests;
• Governance that is participatory, transparent, and responsive — especially to marginalized communities.

Restoring confidence in institutions, in the Centrist View, is not only about efficiency; it is about affirming the dignity of every citizen and the credibility of democracy itself.

Social Justice Without Extremism

Despite economic growth, the Philippines continues to grapple with stark inequality, underdevelopment in rural areas, and persistent conflict in regions such as Mindanao. Politics is downplaying the gains of the Bangsamoro Autonomous region, as changes in policies are manifest in each subsequent administration. These are not just policy failures — they are affronts to human dignity.

The centrist approach to social justice promotes meaningful, targeted reforms:

• Long-term investments in quality education and healthcare as fundamental human rights;
• Genuine land reform and rural development to empower farmers and indigenous peoples;
• Inclusive and decentralized governance, particularly in historically marginalized regions.

Unlike radical ideologies that call for revolution or sweeping overhauls, the Centrist View advocates for gradual, evidence-based reforms that preserve national stability while addressing deep-rooted injustices.

Pluralism and Mutual Respect in a Diverse Nation

The Philippines is a nation of many cultures, faiths, and identities. Respecting human dignity means embracing this diversity, not suppressing it.

The centrist vision affirms that unity can only emerge from mutual respect — not forced conformity.

All Filipinos — regardless of ethnicity, religion, sexual orientation, or social status — have the right to live free from discrimination and violence. Dialogue, rather than dogma, is the foundation of lasting peace and nation-building.

In this spirit, the Centrist View aligns with the universal values of human rights: that every person has the right to live, believe, speak, and participate fully in society — while also contributing to the common good.

Conclusion: A Call for Principled Moderation

The Centrist View in contemporary Philippine society is not a position of passivity or indifference. It is a call for principled moderation — an approach that seeks:

• To place human dignity at the center of policy and public life;
• To uphold human rights not as partisan slogans but as shared moral imperatives;
• To advance nation-building through inclusion, institutional reform, and civic responsibility.

In an age defined by polarization and populism, the Philippines needs a renewed commitment to moral clarity, balanced leadership, and shared humanity. In this vision, human dignity is not merely an abstract ideal — it is a living promise that belongs to every Filipino.

"THE Philippines today produces one illiterate for every five senior high school graduates." This was the disturbing finding of the Functional Literacy, Education and Mass Media survey (Flemms) released by the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA). Under the promulgated redefined standards starting with the graduating class of 2024, the following categories apply (PSA Board Resolution 13, series of 2024):

"Functional literacy is the ability of a person to read, write, compute, and comprehend. In addition to the basic literacy skills, functional literacy includes a higher level of comprehension skills, such as integrating two or more pieces of information and making inferences based on the given information.

"Basic literacy rate is computed for individuals 5 years old and older, while functional literacy rate is computed for individuals 10 to 64 years old."

In the usual bureaucratese, the latest redefinitions thus interpreted was officially submitted to the Senate last year, that: "18.9 million Filipinos who completed secondary education between 2019 and 2024 may be considered 'functional illiterate' — students who could read, write, and compute but could not comprehend what they had read."

In light of these shameful facts, this column attempts to assess the impact of this number of illiterates on our country's development. The 20 percent illiterate graduates will be entrusted, together with the literate four-fifths, in the crafting of our future government when they reach voting age in the next couple of election cycles. It is uncomfortable to know these statistics. But prior to 2024 we have already unleashed many of those illiterate graduates upon our body politic.

Midterm election results

In my past two columns on interpreting the results of the midterm elections, I quoted a former senator describing the midterms as the mechanism for allowing comedians, actors, performers and the corrupt into positions of power, and whose basic qualifications are their popularity and brand name recall, heavily contributing to their electability.

I advanced the arguments that the poor showing of the Alyansa senatorial slate was not exactly a result of a referendum on President Ferdinand Marcos Jr.'s three-year-old administration. There was never a serious debate on the notions of governance by the president. There were of course the complaints of inflation resulting in high prices of practically everything "...bigas, pamasahe, gasolina, twisyon, atbp.," and on the perception of an inept leadership that cannot control corruption in the bureaucracy and a rising tide of criminality.

But these problems are offshoots of the systemic dysfunctions of governance, which have transcended various Philippine regimes in varying degrees of gravity and discussed ad infinitum in past columns. These are old lingering issues.

The 5-5-2 senatorial results (Marcos-Duterte-Aquino camps) were personality-driven which have always underpinned our traditional political practices. But this time, former president Rodrigo Duterte's rendition to exile elicited massive sympathy votes, always a factor to the underdog-loving Pinoys. This gave the DDS a huge advantage. Marcos' imprudent strategy of putting his whole administration behind this act two months before election was milked by the Duterte camp to its last drop.

For a deeper appreciation of the results, the much hyped and anomalously funded campaign only produced five senators for the Alyansa, five for the PDP-Laban and two from the old pinklawan camp. The latter couldn't be called "pure" opposition, as Bam and Kiko, abhor either of the political dynasties. Nevertheless, this pinklawan duo, plus the rest of the incoming senators-elect, will have to coalesce with the seated senators based not necessarily on ideological or principled kinship but on purely personal or pecuniary interest coated with the usual motherhood statements calculated to be attractive to the populace, particularly those who voted them into office. Impeaching Vice President Sara Duterte may be in their interest, narrowing the field for the 2028 presidential race.

Effects of illiterates' voting patterns

And here is where the two concepts of this column converge. The effects of the voting patterns of illiterates — if they do indeed vote — to their role in crafting good governance through the election of a responsible political leadership.

Let me reiterate the Flemms contention that "Functional illiterates can read, write, compute but could not comprehend what they have read."

It is obvious that we need to mitigate these deficiencies. Central to understanding the voting patterns of these illiterates are their inability to undertake critical thinking and to discern complex ideas that involve government policies and governance, which lead to these voters prioritizing popularity of candidates over substantive qualifications.

A candidate's popularity, charisma, or media presence trump those with the more relevant experience and expertise, but less public exposure. These illiterates are also more susceptible to the influence of social media and networks of influencers which have proliferated Philippine internet in the past few election cycles; with catchy slogans but inane and attractive memes resonating on these simple minds.

These shrewd candidates connect better with these types of voters with the former appealing to their emotions and rudimentary humor and rendition of "budot" dances, so popular at the "entablado" rather than initiating substantive policy discussions. Thus, our political leadership, particularly in the Senate, are filled with populists inured to dispensing resources profligately, prioritizing immediate, popular measures over long-term planning, which can lead to unsustainable policies.

Functional illiterates unequipped with tools to distinguish the nuances of a candidate's qualifications more often must rely on endorsements from community leaders, organizations and even glib-tongued charlatans from religious sects that can guide their voting decisions. Local politicians and ward leaders in their communities often serve the highest bidders within a slate. These are those whom the mostly illiterate gravitate towards.

And the more deadly attraction is the distribution of "ayuda" which could really clinch the preference for the candidates who dispense the most. And in the Philippine system of traditional politics, all sides resort to these types of incentives — herding the functionally illiterate voters to the candidates best endowed with such logistics.

The officials we get

With the impelling voting patterns of this large segment of our electorate, we get the officials few of us deserve. We therefore put into power populist officials who give premium to maintaining popularity rather than addressing complex societal issues. They may lack the skills to implement effective policies, let alone initiate or create the same — leading to dysfunctions in governance, yet they are our duly elected political leaders.

This column doesn't in any way suggest that 20 percent of the voters of each side — as reflected by the 5-5-2 senatorial results — are functionally illiterate and the minority are independent-minded electors. I leave this to the pollsters to frame the questionnaires that could unravel this conundrum; mindful of the fact that these major pollsters, SWS, Pulse Asia and OCTA had eggs in their faces in the last elections, for arrogantly predicting erroneous outcomes.

But what is certainly called for is for the senators to look into the Flemms findings that propelled the Philippines to the 87th world ranking on illiteracy out of 130 countries. And for whatever its worth, have the courage to correct these infirmities. Or disprove prevailing suspicions that the illiterate voters are just mirror images of those that now sit in those hallowed halls.

Erratum

In my column of May 28, 2025, presidential assistant to the president Anton Lagdameo was erroneously referred to as Anton Floirendo. Floirendo is Lagdameo's middle name.

SHORTLY after Ferdinand "Makoy" declared martial law in 1972, he purged the bureaucracy, targeting government agencies which he deemed to be corrupt, incompetent and ineffective, particularly the Bureaus of Internal Revenue (BIR) and Customs (BOC). Makoy was in his second term, having been elected in 1965 and 1969.

BBM may have taken a page out of Dad's playbook. One popular speculation was that his Alyansa Para sa Bagong Pilipinas, a well-financed heterogeneous collection of comedians, actors, entertainers, sprinkled with hard-nosed traditional politicians, failed to deliver. Thus, the revamp. This could be one good alibi. The other is that this election was a referendum on BBM's tutelage the past three years. This is debatable. The Alyansa never did reflect the government's notions of governance. Each candidate comes from diverse politically devious camps hastily stitched from fabrics of diverse political ideologies — with some bankrupt of the same, recruited solely for their popularity and electability.

No platforms or programs of government were proposed and defended except for motherhood statements. There were no substantial debates of consequence. This midterm election was a penultimate contest between two erstwhile allied political dynasties, the Marcoses and the Dutertes, and, as in any Philippine elections, simply a clash of personalities and brands; preliminary gambits and a cacophonous prologue to the more lethal presidential elections in the 2028 election cycle.

The issues at hand have none of the economic programs or policy directions but traditional politics defined and imbued with emotional underpinnings: the Deegong's surreptitious rendition to The Hague and the impending ICC trial; the impeachment of VP Sara eliminating her from the political calculus; leading towards the possible expansion and perhaps perpetuation of the Marcos dynasty.

Thus, it's too pat for BBM to revamp the current Cabinet as punishment for this perceived midterm election debacle. In fact, half of the incoming senators, plus more than 80 percent of the lower house members who voted to impeach BBM's archrival, VP Sara, were reelected. BBM's move must be part of a strategy. But what?

Changing the face of the issue

This midterm election may have telegraphed to the public that BBM has been wounded badly though not mortally. There is this ubiquitous perception of failure and weakness. But he has three more years to govern and has full control of the levers of political power in government. This power is immense. Three years is time enough to repair his image and recuperate, demonstrating he is no lame duck.

The Cabinet revamp therefore was a necessary palabas — a moro-moro. BBM is simply executing a misdirection, a sleight of hand creating illusions, deceiving audiences. This is an in-your-face declaration that "I am in control. Anong say mo!" We may be looking at a different BBM today. Thus, parsing the acts of his father in 1972 may give us some hints on his current motivations and the kind of leadership he may want to portray.

Ferdinand Makoy's decisive acts

In retrospect, Ferdinand Makoy in 1972 was laying the ground for the extension of his term beyond 1973. Prior to this, he co-opted the leadership of the Armed Forces (AFP) and the Philippine Constabulary (PC), a military-type police force that maintained peace and order internally, mostly in the provinces.

He seized control with surgical precision. The martial law declaration allowed him to suspend the 1935 Constitution, effectively eliminating legal protections for civil servants and political opponents, removing individuals from their positions without due process. The two houses of the Philippine legislature were physically padlocked; the senators and congressmen, mostly political opponents and rivals, were removed and their leadership arrested.

In the first few hours of the martial rule declaration, Makoy closed all newspaper publications, controlling the media, restricting the flow of information, which helped suppress dissent and fashioned a narrative that supported his regime. It caught the public unaware.  

Makoy centralized authority within the executive branch, diminishing the power of local governments and other branches of government. This allowed him to exert greater control over the bureaucracy. Marcos established new government agencies and bodies, installing subordinates loyal to him, further reinforcing his control over the bureaucracy and ensuring that key functions were handled by trusted individuals.

Subsequently, through a series of actions and policies implemented after the martial law declaration on Sept. 21, 1972, only then did he proceed to purge the bureaucracy. 

BBM'S post-election moves

BBM's actions on May 22, 2025, weren't as grand or dramatic. This wasn't a recalibration or a "bold reset." This was an "inday-inday" limp-wrist act imploring his Cabinet and those heading key government agencies and those who addressed themselves as "secretary," fancying themselves with "Cabinet rank" to tender their "courtesy resignations." This could be the weak BBM's way of allowing his incompetent, corrupt but loyal cronies to save face, accepting their courtesies — mixing them with the good ones.

True enough, on the following day, he retained Executive Secretary Bersamin along with the whole economic team. What a start to his bold reset! The coming days should see the other nonperforming Cabinet members mixed in with the undesirables getting the boot. Rumors are circulating that the first lady may just have to let go of her favorite confreres, insert her own substitutes, and do away with her bête noires — the remnants of the Duterte loyalists. Secretary Guevarra and others may be on the dock.
From the looks of it, BBM may have a seed of a strategy. Depending on the profile of the incoming Cabinet, various scenarios can be deduced. If the same tired old are reinstated, then my first conjecture above may be en point. BBM and the first lady may just want to get rid of the undesirables — in a nice way; for example, booting out Anton Floirendo for the failure of Alyansa and the corruption and anomalies in the BARMM, among others.

But if BBM begins to decapitate the BIR and the BOC, and goes deep attempting to eliminate corruption, intimidate and strike fear in the bureaucracy, then he may be cutting a different but welcome path. But does he really have the balls for it?Advertisement

In 1972/1973 his father culled the bureaucracy of misfits and proceeded to shame them, publishing their names in the press and media. In some ways, Makoy did strike fear in the corrupt bureaucracy, until he himself created and introduced a deadlier superstructure for corruption and depravity — crony capitalism and kleptocracy. 

BBM'S ongoing narrative

BBM can adopt his father's template departing from a type of governance totally different from his personality and style of decision-making. This could wrest the momentum away from the recent perceived victory of the Duterte-backed opposition.

The next few days will give us a better grasp of the raison d'etre of this Cabinet revamp. It is not so much whether the incompetents and the corrupt are replaced. This is not even a recalibration. Methinks that BBM refuses to see that he may be the problem after all. And the whole exercise is to demonstrate that he is not a lame duck. That he still calls the shots!

IN my column shortly before the elections, I reprinted a quote attributed to former senator Frank Drilon (which he has denied): "The best evidence of our political system's desperate bankruptcy is the proliferation of actors, actresses and comedians dominating our legislative and executive branches, including the local government units." (Two elections ... MT, May 7, 2025)

Surprisingly, the voters must have heeded his advice as those he named — popular actors, comedians and TV personalities lost. Foremost among these was Sen. Bong Revilla, who lost his seat. Along with radio-TV personality Ben Tulfo, "Pambansang Kamao" Manny Pacquiao and TV host comedian Willie Revillame, who all figured as shoo-ins in pre-election surveys by SWS, Pulse Asia and OCTA — were all eliminated. This says something for the accuracy, credibility and trustworthiness of these surveys. Popular actor Philip Salvador never made good in the surveys. But Sen. Lito Lapid, a Senate nonperformer but an action star, was a tailender — "nakalusot," as they say in the vernacular.

Marcos' strategic folly

There were many surprises to this midterm election. But perhaps the most glaring is the foolish strategy of the Marcos-Araneta-Romualdez camp in timing the exile and incarceration of former president Duterte at The Hague on March 11, 2025, two months prior to the elections. The Alyansa senatorial slate at the beginning of March was riding high with 10 names in the win column with Erwin Tulfo consistently occupying the top slot; only Bong Go and Bato Dela Rosa from the opposition made it to the winning list, in the 9th to 12th slots. It is a measure of President Duterte's residual political influence, and the sympathy votes he provoked that resurrected the lackluster and anemic PDP-Laban candidates. VP Sara's political weight was likewise evident in singling out Camille Villar and Imee Marcos from the Alyansa, effectively adopting them into the fold of the PDP-Laban.

The Iglesia Ni Cristo's (INC) last-minute support for the "sure winners" finalized the opposition's Bong Go, Bato de la Rosa, Marcoleta, Camille Villar and Imee Marcos to the win column; except for Bong Revilla who got away from his plunder case but has not reportedly returned the P124.5 million he kept. Even the touted INC endorsement couldn't carry the miscreant across the winning column.

Reemergence of VP Sara

VP Sara could be the biggest beneficiary of this midterm with her impeachment now practically dead with Senate allies holding more than one-third of the votes needed to avert a guilty verdict. But recently, with her usual arrogance, she said she wanted the trial to proceed as she wanted a "bloodbath."

Sara has shown her clout with her congressional quadcom tormentors; Stella Quimbo, Dan Fernandez, Benny Abante (both involved in quadcom scandal), France Castro, Mark Go and "Caraps" Paduano, losing their own bid for reelection, leaving The House speaker's team in disarray. Romualdez may soon be replaced as speaker — if BBM had the balls. In his defense, Romualdez, through his spokesman deputy speaker David Suarez, declared that about 86 percent of the 215 congressmen who signed the impeachment complaint against the vice president have been reelected — deriding VP Sara's political weight.

The feud between the two political dynasties, Marcos and Duterte, may have precipitated an unintended consequence, with mostly the young voters disgusted with the same old tradpol practiced by these two factions. This change in voting profile attributed to the changing demographics may have emboldened the decimated remnants of the old "yellow army" back in the equation. This propelled Bam Aquino and Kiko Pangilinan to the Senate, former vice president Leni to the mayoralty of Naga and stalwarts Leila de Lima and Chel Diokno to House as party-list representatives to torment the Dutertes. The "pinklawans" are back.

But these singular elections in no way ushered in a certain maturity in the Filipino voters. One swallow does not a summer make. Money still flowed, particularly from the stolen coffers of the 2025 budget — used by the speaker's minions in the scandalous "Ayuda AKAP" program. The politics of personalities still dominate. Qualified candidates, among them Heidi Mendoza, Luke Espiritu, and Sonny Matula, etc. under the present dysfunctional system could never make it.

Undetermined results

Overall, our system is still entrenched deep in tradpol practices where dynasties and their oligarchic allies reign supreme, although results were mixed. The Cebu Garcias, descendants of Pablo Garcia who founded the dynasty upon the political carcasses of the Osmeñas and Cuencos, were obliterated. Yet in Davao City the ascendant Duterte children saw the complete annihilation of the once formidable Castillo-Nograles-Garcia clan, trouncing the late founder Nonoy Garcia's second district. VP Sara revealed that this decades-long alliance unraveled earlier in January 2005 by a "snub" on the Dutertes, forcing the latter to field the candidacy of Omar, a complete unknown but a Duterte grandson.

But in the five Davao provinces BBM's PFP held sway in most governorships. Congressman John Cagas, the only Davao region lawmaker to have voted to impeach VP Sara, got a fresh mandate.

The blame game has started. BBM's special assistant Anton Lagdameo, scion of the once formidable Floirendo-Del Rosario-Garcia clan, could get the axe for mishandling the campaign in BARMM. Except for Lapid, none of Alyansa's 10 senatorial bets won. Also, "Teng" Mangudadatu has accused Lagdameo of practically "pocketing" billions of BARMM funds.

Systemic reforms

This state of affairs will go unchanged unless the underlying systemic dysfunctions protected by the 1987 Constitution are revised. There is a slim chance for constitutional revisions as the three guardians of the Cory Constitution, Bam Aquino, Kiko Pangilinan and Risa Hontiveros will have their say against Robin Padilla, the Senate committee on constitutional revisions chairman who surprisingly is turning out to be the champion of a shift from a unitary-presidential to a federal-parliamentary system. These are advocates of the Centrist Democrats and the original PDP-Laban founded by the late senator Nene Pimentel — captured and perverted by the Deegong in 2016.

With the remnants of the Cory "yellows" confronting the Dutertes and the Marcos-Araneta-Romualdez factions, a tectonic shift in the political firmament may occur once the state of the nation is defined by the lame duck BBM followed by the ICC trial of the Deegong. The second half of this year will be an opportunity for the emerging opposition in the highest echelons of Philippine political leadership to strengthen itself as a third force.

Since traditional politics still rule, we will be drawn to speculations on who will be the next president rather than how the myriad problems of the country are to be solved; poverty alleviation, the disparity between the haves and the have-nots, injustices, and the perversion of the rule of law will be relegated to the backburner. Evidence surfacing on the ICC trial could spell the Deegong's guilt or innocence, a game changer, impacting on his daughter's political fortunes.

Peripheral to the dispensing of justice, this ICC trial could be a telenovela dear to Filipinos, with episodes lasting for years which the Deegong does not have. And his demise, Inshalla, would be the ultimate roll of the dice — for him, for the Marcos-Araneta-Romualdez faction and for the fortunes of his daughter. But nothing towards the upliftment of the Filipino.

THE recent conclave elected an unknown to lead 1.4 billion Catholics. But the drama of the elections will remain locked within the muted confines of the Sistine Chapel that has been a silent witness and keeper of countless secrets for millennia. Since Pope Francis died, the world speculated on a number of Church dignitaries as papabile. Among the favorites were Luis Antonio Cardinal Tagle, Archbishop Emeritus of Manila; Matteo Maria Cardinal Zuppi, Archbishop of Bologna; Pietro Cardinal Parolin, the Vatican's Secretary of State; Pierbattista Cardinal Pizabella, Latin Patriarch of Jerusalem; and Peter Cardinal Erdo, Archbishop of Budapest. But the Holy Spirit who guided the cardinal-electors had a different favorite keeping His choice en pectore, revealing to the world only through a white smoke, an American, Robert Cardinal Prevost, who will occupy the throne of St. Peter as Leo XIV. "Qui in conclave ut papa intrat, ut cardinalis exiit (He who enters the conclave as a pope, leaves it as a cardinal)." Truly, the Christian God works in mysterious ways.

Beijing's not so secret plan

As secret as the proceedings of the conclave were, those of China's Politburo were not. The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) document, principally authored by Xi Jinping himself entitled "A Resolution — to win the initiative in historic upheaval through decisive struggle" is a master plan to counter President Trump's unilateral and irresponsible imposition of his tariffs. For Beijing, this is no longer a trade dispute resolvable through the "art of the deal." These provocations are a casus belli. The CCP's secret document is therefore an assertion of a full-blown trade war encompassing economic, diplomatic and military domains, in the classic Chinese discernment of "wei ji" — crisis as opportunity.

This classified document shared with the political leadership and subsequently leaked to Yuen Hongping, a former CCP insider now a dissident professor in exile was perhaps the Chinese inscrutable way of reaching out to Trump, a simpleton, being forewarned before he does another precipitate act.

The tariff onslaught caught the Chinese off guard, but their response was nonetheless quick. This document is Xi Jinping's playbook with a full spectrum of sweeping strategies for confrontation with America. The following are excerpts from Chinese Australian journalist Cheng Lei and Heng He, a China analyst and commentator. Briefly the document outlined five strategies to counter any eventualities.

Five strategies

Taking advantage of US allies' anger and frustration, Beijing fashioned its first strategy to build a united front, targeting Germany, France, UK, Canada, Japan, South Korea and Australia. And if Trump refuses to back down, India and Vietnam will be further enticed. This coalition of aggrieved countries could isolate the US pushing it out of the globalization process and unseat it from economic dominance.

The second strategy is an accelerating two-step "financial war plans." First is internal, targeting the Chinese political elite's foreign assets; keeping track of foreign deposits held by party officials and executives working for state-owned enterprises (SOEs) for amounts exceeding $200,000. Trump's insistence on his tariffs will result in a decoupling, a breakdown of relationship with China, triggering a massive transference of funds from the US back to China or to any neutral country. Non-compliance is a treasonable act to be met with severe punishment.

The second step is directed externally towards the destabilization of the US financial markets which could trigger a meltdown deadlier than that of the 2008 financial crisis. Chinese officials on short notice are to dump $1 trillion in US treasury bonds and simultaneously short $2 trillion in US corporate equity and debt securities. Japan, which has bigger holdings than China, could be drawn into this financial morass precipitating a domino effect collapsing US markets. This could result in a world economic recession or worse.

The third strategy are domestic measures for a prolonged economic war strengthening China and its citizens' economic self-reliance, a drastic domestic market circulation system — euphemism for government rationing of food, meat, grain, vegetables, etc. China, an authoritarian government, has a better chance of successfully inflicting severe hardship on its citizenry compared to the US or democratic regimes — where individual rights and privileges are paramount and street protests could be disastrous. Rationing is the CCP's secret weapon as it did after the Cultural Revolution in the 1970s when the economy was decimated; not to mention the great famine under the Great Leader Mao.

The fourth strategy calls for the deepening of partnership with Iran, Russia and North Korea, natural foes of democratic America and applying greater influence in Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar and Thailand, countries already susceptible to Marxist ideals on the concept of "economic power shaping political power." And more importantly driving a wedge between NATO countries and allies. Particular emphasis would be given to the seething anger over Trump's disrespect of Canada, inviting it to be a subordinate state to the US. This classic "divide and weaken" relationship with America's old allies will eventually undermine US global leadership.

The first island chain countries that have been preventing China from extending its influence toward the Eastern Pacific can be subverted. The CCP must work to weaken US traditional relations with Japan, South Korea, Australia and New Zealand, eroding and isolating America, breaking its status as global policeman, ending its 80-year post-war dominance.

The last strategy involves Taiwan where confrontation becomes inevitable if the economic war intensifies. Xi is convinced he has geography on his side giving him the home court advantage, carefully choosing the timing while the US is putting out fires everywhere. Secret documents call for Xi's full implementation of his strategic vision, preparing for a military showdown with the US in the Taiwan Strait.

In this secret document, this "new type of conventional war is fought under a full spectrum information warfare backed by a credible nuclear deterrent." In the likelihood that the US intervenes China with its superior and more numerous missiles and growing military might, can destroy military bases in Japan, South Korea (with ally North Korea), the Philippines and Guam. US forces are expected to retreat east to Hawaii, effectively reducing the US to a regional power.

The CCP's final declaration in that secret document states: "Only by bravely facing the storm can we achieve great victory," concluding that by defeating Trump's total offensive beginning with the tariff war, the CCP's vision of a community of common destiny will become the global path forward.

Reaction of majority CCP leadership

Professor Yuen said, "The CCP hopes that the resolution would stabilize internal moral order after the shock of Trump's tariff war." But the result instead was the opposite.

This document sparked a wave of extreme anxiety throughout the CCP bureaucracy. Imagine those officials with children and assets in the US who must now repatriate to China. This rule affects 80 to 90 percent of the officials. Most of them have assets abroad. This has turned many of them against Xi's leadership.

THIS month, we face two elections. The conclave in Rome where the leadership of the 1.4 billion Catholics in the world is decided upon by 133 electors and where all Catholics have no influence at all in the outcome; and the Philippine midterm elections, where the political leadership is voted upon by the millions of Filipinos, yet the outcome has long been determined by our dysfunctional governance system and the aberrant electoral process. To many Filipino Catholics, comparing the conclave to the midterm elections could be blasphemous. They could be wrong.

Conclave

A conclave is held only when a pope dies or abdicates. Convened to choose a successor, the electors are the cardinals, highly educated and experienced in the Church bureaucracy, having attained the highest ranks in their respective dioceses. They start as ordinary priests and go up the ranks as bishops and archbishops to princes of the Church. If elected in a conclave, he attains the highest rank of Bishop of Rome, Vicar of Christ on earth, successor to St. Peter.

Currently there are 252 cardinals but only 133 qualified electors. Those 80 years old and above are proscribed by the Church apostolic constitution. To be elected pope, the papabile needs two-thirds supermajority of 89 votes.

As in many Catholic Church traditions, the conclave has for millennia been steeped in mystery and the arcana of obscure protocols. The ancient ways are shrouded in the mist of time, impenetrable but for some rare instances. Church history is replete with leakages from these consistories providing morsels of compelling stories down the centuries.

As in any assemblage that anoints the most powerful from among themselves, conclaves are not entirely exempt from the exigencies of politics, bargaining, negotiations, and campaigning. In the Catholic faith, the Holy Spirit enlightens the cardinal-electors in their solemn duty but may be cognizant of the unholy political maneuverings and intrigues of the cardinals — who after all are only human, and exclusively male.

A case in point is the first conclave held in the Sistine Chapel in 1492. Cardinal Rodrigo Borgia, nephew of Pope Calixtus III was elected Pope Alexander VI. He bribed and bought the votes with promise of appointments to lucrative positions in the bureaucracy and the Church hierarchy. In 1590 King Philip II of Spain, the most powerful man in Europe, then wanted his own pope. In that conclave, he listed seven cardinals he could accept as pope and another list of 30 he wished to veto (yes, powerful Catholic monarchs had the right of royal veto then — jus exclusivae). The conclave did as he wanted. He got his Pope, Urban VIII who reigned for 12 days. (Wikipedia).

Admittedly excesses plague subsequent conclaves and scandals erupt intermittently to the present day but the Church has managed to impose corrective measures resulting in the election of God's good men, spiritual leaders influencing the directions of the Church, its teachings, and priorities. These are men of moral authority with views and voices spanning secular concerns on global issues on poverty, human rights, climate change and social justice. Post-war popes continue to shape cultural conversations and influence societal norms, not just among Catholics but in broader society — including other faiths.

PH midterm elections — out with the old

Contrast this with our election exercises since decades past when we discontinued electing serious leaders and patriotic politicians of vision. I quote a social media post attributed to former senator Franklin Drilon on the state of Philippine politics. He denied the quote, but the portrayals are valid just the same and probably the reason why it went viral.

"The best evidence of our political system's desperate bankruptcy is the proliferation of actors, actresses and comedians dominating our legislative and executive branches, including the local government units.

"Willy Revillame is a good man. He has helped a lot of people, including the women that he loved. But that doesn't make him prepared for the work of a senator. Philip Salvador is a fine actor. He made many people happy, including Kris Aquino, whom he gifted with a son. But such credentials are not what are needed in the Senate. Lito Lapid is an excellent actor, but he hasn't performed enough in the Philippine Senate. By insisting to remain in the Senate, he effectively eased out the more qualified, the more competent candidates.

"...Bong Revilla...has made politics his family business with his wife and sons all serving the government. Manny Pacquiao is the richest politician, next to the Villars. Of course, he deserves his wealth because he earned all of it. But the fact that he is a world champion in eight different boxing categories doesn't make him prepared as a legislator. Tito Sotto has been a good public servant, but he has served enough and at his age, he should give way to the younger, more dynamic and more progressive legislators. Erwin Tulfo should clarify his citizenship and explain to the people why the Commission on Appointments refused to confirm his appointment as DSWD secretary. Ben Tulfo should stay away from the Senate and should instead leave Raffy Tulfo alone there."

Correcting a defective system

More disturbing are the current reelectionists who during the Gordon Senate blue ribbon committee hearings refused to sign the draft panel report on the anomalies hounding the multibillion-peso Covid-19 contracts of the Duterte government. The multi-billion corruption and plunder were executed at a time of the country's greatest tragedy. They want your votes again: Lito Lapid, Pia Cayetano, Bong Go, Bong Revilla, Francis Tolentino and Imee Marcos.

I will not discuss the qualifications of the rest. I leave that to the individual voter to discern that correcting the systemic dysfunctions of our governance are of primordial importance (www.cdpi.asia). I refer to the systemic defects that have plagued our governance:

– Political patronage is deeply embedded in the political system where public officials prioritize personal gain over the public good and in the process fosters corruption, inequalities, weak institutions, erosion of democratic values and the distortion of the rule of law.

– Political dynasties proliferate, concentrating power in the hands of a few families, limiting political diversity, perpetuating a cycle of inequality and disenfranchisement. And in the Philippine context, political dynasties have married their interest with that of the oligarchy, blurring the lines between economic and political power accumulation.

– The unitary-presidential system of government as practiced in the country is the embryo upon which patronage politics is nurtured, and when paired with our electoral processes, it becomes the overarching environment upon which political patronage incubates.

These systemic anomalies interact resulting in bad governance reinforced by economic provisions in our 1987 Constitution that impede the influx of foreign direct investments (FDIs) which are the lifeblood of economic growth. We have been pushing for political reforms fruitlessly through constitutional revisions since President Cory's time.

Only a few senatorial candidates understand these magnitudes. Knowing their track records, if elected, they will work towards the revision of the 1987 Constitution: Norberto Gonzales, Raul Lambino and Sonny Matula. For what it's worth, we must vote for them.

BY his 90-day proscription period, and beyond, the world will be in a quandary, mulling over Trump's next moves over the suspension of his reciprocal tariffs. Knowing that this arrogant bully by now has revealed to the world that he really doesn't have any notion as to the ramifications of his decisions, he will continue spinning this face-saving disarray as a masterstroke. Since no remaining adults in the White House can impose a semblance of order, he must rely solely on the feedback mechanisms of the unthinking "baskets of deplorables." Even the likes of subaltern Elon Musk and his ilk and those within MAGA who have had a recent reversal of fortunes, will inch themselves out of this nightmarish state of affairs that will ensue if this wave of disenchantment and protests, particularly from the "red" states, snowballs throughout America.

As gleaned from Trump's humiliating surrender, forced to exclude from his China tariff smartphones, computers, laptops and other electronic devices, semiconductors, solar cells, and memory cards, etc., chances are he will unilaterally proclaim the rest of the suspended reciprocal tariffs no longer operable. declaring a victory; that he has succeeded in getting everyone to the negotiating table — including his nemesis, China. Each economy will find itself treading its own path — the big ones with a combined nominal GDP of $77.56 trillion, Germany, Japan, India, UK, France, Italy, Canada, Brazil, aside from the US and China will be dominating the narrative for the foreseeable future. I am more concerned with my country and how it will wade through this morass.

Economy and trade profile

The Philippines ranks 38th among 199 world economies with a GDP of $507.67 billion. In 2024, total trade was $200.6 billion, broken into $73.2 billion exports and $127.4 billion imports with deficits of $54.2 billion. We run a deficit with China and a surplus with America. The bulk of our exports are electronics, woodcraft and furniture and some manufactured goods, chiefly to the US and Japan ($12.12 billion and $10.33 billion, respectively).

Our imports are petroleum, oils and coal and integrated circuits which we then assemble and re-export as various categories of electronic products; shipped largely from China totaling 25.7 percent of total import value amounting to $32.83 billion. We run a deficit of $4.14 billion.

What we have, others may not

With American firms abandoning China, perhaps we can entice some of these manufacturing companies to relocate to the Philippines highlighting our comparative advantage. Aside from being one of the oldest trading partners of America, having been America's first colony, ever, we can play the "brown brother" card. We are the only Christian country in these parts. And we love Hollywood more than Bollywood.

At the turn of the century, the "Thomasites," 600 American teachers, traveled from the US to the newly occupied territory to establish the public education system patterned after America. They came aboard the US Army transport ship USS Thomas, thus the name. They planted the seeds for what would eventually become a large pool of bilingual English-speaking, educated and skilled workers.

Outsourcing services

This gave rise to the BPO industry — the business process outsourcing that has been providing services such as customer and technical support, and back-office operations to companies around the world, especially in the US — where our labor is much more competitive.

BPO has grown exponentially not only due to our skilled bilingual hardworking young workers but by the quirks of the 12-hour time difference. The 9 to 5 daytime working hours in America are serviced by our 9 to 5 night shift workers.

PH eyes deeper military ties with Taiwan

Not to mention the large pool of OFW experienced in working abroad who, due to the looming Trump-induced global economic turbulence, may be moving back home themselves. These are the Filipinos who have been the backbone of health care, workers in the information technology sectors, manufacturing and construction who may be attractive to foreign firms relocating to the country.

Geography and tourism

The Philippines is strategically located in Southeast Asia serving as a gateway to other markets in the region — with close proximity to China, Malaysia, Singapore, Japan, Korea, and Indonesia — powerhouse economies. And with its tropical climate — we only have dry and wet seasons — no winter frosts, allowing an abundance of all-year-round exotic fruits and agricultural products in demand in the international market. The country as an archipelago also boasts of the fifth longest coastline in the world measuring 36,289 kilometers (22,549 miles) where surrounding seas are abundant with seafood.

Our tourism sector has world-class destinations with amenities from the world-famous Boracay to El Nido to Gintubay to secluded beach hideaways and diving spots in the coastal provinces; to mountain areas with cooler climes at higher altitudes and rainforests with diverse fauna/flora — accessible to local metropolises where inexpensive shopping and local and international restaurants cater to all types of cuisine.

Manufacturing — emerging market

The Philippines has a growing manufacturing sector, particularly in electronics and semiconductors. It is a key player in the global supply chain for electronic components, which permeate many industries, including technology, automotive and non-robotic assembly lines. We have long established bilateral and multilateral trade agreements that enhance our trade relations with other countries, including the US itself. The Generalized System of Preferences (GSP) allows certain Philippine products to enter the US market duty-free, promoting exports — unless Trump insists on extracting his pound of flesh on our imports. Coming from a still low base of development, the country presents opportunities for investment and a wide space for growth — making it an attractive destination for foreign direct investments (FDI) in many of the economic sectors. These comparative advantages position the Philippines favorably in international trade, particularly with the US and other countries in the region.

The flip side

Although we have managed to emerge as an economic tiger cub in the region and we have long shed our image as the "sick man in Asia," our system of governance has time and again reinforced those defective structures and pulled us back to where we were. We have long established that our systemic defects in governance — rent-seeking bureaucrats, corrupt elected officials, traditional politics, political dynasties and the complicit oligarchy — are the root causes why the country can't move forward as fast as we want to despite the comparative advantages described above.

We have long identified that our 1987 Constitution — written as a knee-jerk derivative of decades of the totalitarian martial law regime — is the instrument that has encased and institutionalized these systemic deficiencies. For one, some provisions prevent foreign direct investments (FDI) from pouring into the country — the lifeblood of economic growth.

We, the progressives, have always clamored for the revision of the 1987 FDI-averse Constitution. And the conservatives and the guardians of the status quo entrenched in the power structure of the country, shielded by the Constitution, have always managed to stymie the needed systemic reforms that could propel our country forward. We have a very slim chance this midterm elections can put in place the seeds of possible reforms.

We have some senatorial candidates who may fit the mold of the constitutional reformists that may need our votes.

BY his 90-day proscription period, and beyond, the world will be in a quandary, mulling over Trump's next moves over the suspension of his reciprocal tariffs. Knowing that this arrogant bully by now has revealed to the world that he really doesn't have any notion as to the ramifications of his decisions, he will continue spinning this face-saving disarray as a masterstroke. Since no remaining adults in the White House can impose a semblance of order, he must rely solely on the feedback mechanisms of the unthinking "baskets of deplorables." Even the likes of subaltern Elon Musk and his ilk and those within MAGA who have had a recent reversal of fortunes, will inch themselves out of this nightmarish state of affairs that will ensue if this wave of disenchantment and protests, particularly from the "red" states, snowballs throughout America.

As gleaned from Trump's humiliating surrender, forced to exclude from his China tariff smartphones, computers, laptops and other electronic devices, semiconductors, solar cells, and memory cards, etc., chances are he will unilaterally proclaim the rest of the suspended reciprocal tariffs no longer operable. declaring a victory; that he has succeeded in getting everyone to the negotiating table — including his nemesis, China. Each economy will find itself treading its own path — the big ones with a combined nominal GDP of $77.56 trillion, Germany, Japan, India, UK, France, Italy, Canada, Brazil, aside from the US and China will be dominating the narrative for the foreseeable future. I am more concerned with my country and how it will wade through this morass.

Economy and trade profile

The Philippines ranks 38th among 199 world economies with a GDP of $507.67 billion. In 2024, total trade was $200.6 billion, broken into $73.2 billion exports and $127.4 billion imports with deficits of $54.2 billion. We run a deficit with China and a surplus with America. The bulk of our exports are electronics, woodcraft and furniture and some manufactured goods, chiefly to the US and Japan ($12.12 billion and $10.33 billion, respectively).

Our imports are petroleum, oils and coal and integrated circuits which we then assemble and re-export as various categories of electronic products; shipped largely from China totaling 25.7 percent of total import value amounting to $32.83 billion. We run a deficit of $4.14 billion.

What we have, others may not

With American firms abandoning China, perhaps we can entice some of these manufacturing companies to relocate to the Philippines highlighting our comparative advantage. Aside from being one of the oldest trading partners of America, having been America's first colony, ever, we can play the "brown brother" card. We are the only Christian country in these parts. And we love Hollywood more than Bollywood.

At the turn of the century, the "Thomasites," 600 American teachers, traveled from the US to the newly occupied territory to establish the public education system patterned after America. They came aboard the US Army transport ship USS Thomas, thus the name. They planted the seeds for what would eventually become a large pool of bilingual English-speaking, educated and skilled workers.

Outsourcing services

This gave rise to the BPO industry — the business process outsourcing that has been providing services such as customer and technical support, and back-office operations to companies around the world, especially in the US — where our labor is much more competitive.

BPO has grown exponentially not only due to our skilled bilingual hardworking young workers but by the quirks of the 12-hour time difference. The 9 to 5 daytime working hours in America are serviced by our 9 to 5 night shift workers.

PH eyes deeper military ties with Taiwan

Not to mention the large pool of OFW experienced in working abroad who, due to the looming Trump-induced global economic turbulence, may be moving back home themselves. These are the Filipinos who have been the backbone of health care, workers in the information technology sectors, manufacturing and construction who may be attractive to foreign firms relocating to the country.

Geography and tourism

The Philippines is strategically located in Southeast Asia serving as a gateway to other markets in the region — with close proximity to China, Malaysia, Singapore, Japan, Korea, and Indonesia — powerhouse economies. And with its tropical climate — we only have dry and wet seasons — no winter frosts, allowing an abundance of all-year-round exotic fruits and agricultural products in demand in the international market. The country as an archipelago also boasts of the fifth longest coastline in the world measuring 36,289 kilometers (22,549 miles) where surrounding seas are abundant with seafood.

Our tourism sector has world-class destinations with amenities from the world-famous Boracay to El Nido to Gintubay to secluded beach hideaways and diving spots in the coastal provinces; to mountain areas with cooler climes at higher altitudes and rainforests with diverse fauna/flora — accessible to local metropolises where inexpensive shopping and local and international restaurants cater to all types of cuisine.

Manufacturing — emerging market

The Philippines has a growing manufacturing sector, particularly in electronics and semiconductors. It is a key player in the global supply chain for electronic components, which permeate many industries, including technology, automotive and non-robotic assembly lines. We have long established bilateral and multilateral trade agreements that enhance our trade relations with other countries, including the US itself. The Generalized System of Preferences (GSP) allows certain Philippine products to enter the US market duty-free, promoting exports — unless Trump insists on extracting his pound of flesh on our imports. Coming from a still low base of development, the country presents opportunities for investment and a wide space for growth — making it an attractive destination for foreign direct investments (FDI) in many of the economic sectors. These comparative advantages position the Philippines favorably in international trade, particularly with the US and other countries in the region.

The flip side

Although we have managed to emerge as an economic tiger cub in the region and we have long shed our image as the "sick man in Asia," our system of governance has time and again reinforced those defective structures and pulled us back to where we were. We have long established that our systemic defects in governance — rent-seeking bureaucrats, corrupt elected officials, traditional politics, political dynasties and the complicit oligarchy — are the root causes why the country can't move forward as fast as we want to despite the comparative advantages described above.

We have long identified that our 1987 Constitution — written as a knee-jerk derivative of decades of the totalitarian martial law regime — is the instrument that has encased and institutionalized these systemic deficiencies. For one, some provisions prevent foreign direct investments (FDI) from pouring into the country — the lifeblood of economic growth.

We, the progressives, have always clamored for the revision of the 1987 FDI-averse Constitution. And the conservatives and the guardians of the status quo entrenched in the power structure of the country, shielded by the Constitution, have always managed to stymie the needed systemic reforms that could propel our country forward. We have a very slim chance this midterm elections can put in place the seeds of possible reforms.

We have some senatorial candidates who may fit the mold of the constitutional reformists that may need our votes.

THE Donald blinked! But the scam artist and his minions made tons of money on the side. Trump has always telegraphed his disdain towards China and cockeyed intentions for the rest of the world. His campaign centered on raising tariffs globally to avenge America being ripped off. Barely a month into his second term, he arbitrarily fashioned a semblance of a scheme.

On Feb. 4, 2025, Trump imposed a 10-percent tariff on China; and on March 4, another 20 percent. Bolstered by China's non-response, he declared on April 2, America's "Liberation Day," bullying trading partners with a minimum 10-percent tariff on all US imports plus higher tariffs on 57 countries. China was singled out with an additional 34 percent. The pissing contest commenced.

On April 4, China retaliated with its own tariff of 34 percent. In a pique, Trump raised the ante to 145 percent. But on April 9, China hit back with 84 percent; and on April 11 slapped America further with 125 percent.

Trump was stunned but clueless still that his decisions on tariffs in two days, April 2 and 3, had obliterated $10 trillion of the global market capitalization. But more deadly, he precipitated a state of violent uncertainty, a bane to nations and corporations planning out their economies. The world is held hostage to the impulses of this inveterate megalomaniac.

The scam on the side

But before that, on April 10 — eight days after his "Liberation Day" announcements — the Donald caved in but hatched a diabolical scheme allowing his cronies and perhaps himself to make millions on the world financial markets. Hours before he announced a 90-day suspension of the April 2 tariff, he tweeted what could have been a signal to his friends, "This is a great time to buy!" Upon opening, the DOW skyrocketed 2,963 points — raking in millions for those that got the alert a few hours earlier. Senate Democrats want this insider trading investigated.

Then on April 13, Trump, humiliated, surrendered on the tariff war! He had to exclude 20 categories of Chinese electronics from the 90-day tariff suspension: smartphones, computers, laptops and other electronic devices, semiconductors, solar cells and memory cards.

To save face, he pretended this was his masterstroke — part of his plan all along, art of the deal — announcing 60 countries are "kissing his ass" to negotiate. Some did sue to negotiate. Not China. Trump prevaricated that China wants to negotiate but doesn't know how to go about it. "Please, pretty please, call to negotiate" — could have been Trump's plea to Xi Jinping!

The faux-free market capitalist

Predictably, Trump is incapable of grasping the repercussions of his acts. He plays things "oido" — no notes, bereft of strategy whatsoever, only chaos. As Jeffrey Sachs, the eminent Harvard political economist said, Trump's understanding of world trade and deficits is very low — Mickey Mouse level; with apologies to the Mickey who is smarter than the Donald. He is antediluvian on economic principles, unappreciative of the nuances of world trade as mutually beneficial — that if you stop trade, everybody loses. He is a zero-sum gamer; I win, you lose!

It has not sunk in that his decisions caused a sell-off in the bond markets — US Treasury debts — the safest financial instruments in the world, increasing yields on these bonds leading to increased borrowing rates for consumers and businesses potentially slowing global economic growth. Of the $36 trillion US debt, $7.9 trillion is held by Japan, China and the UK; heavily tariffed, they can dump these debts in retaliation.

American allies know that what Trump is doing is irrational. His tariffs, particularly against his bete noire, — China, at 145 percent. Sachs says he is driven "...by the USA's deep neurotic attachment to China — the US Political System hates China... because China's big and successful." This brewing trade war between America and China will mess up the whole world.

In the end, China, which does not depend so much on its 12 percent exports to the US, wins. Former NEDA director-general Cielito Habito warned: "China, shut off from the US market with prohibitive tariffs, will flood Southeast Asian markets with their manufactured products that have nowhere else to go — and in the process kill domestic manufacturers along with hundreds of thousands, possibly millions of jobs elsewhere in the region."

Tyrannus idioticus

On the corollary question: How can this happen when this makes no sense? Sach's take is that the US is now under one-person rule. The US political system is in a state of collapse. Trump operates by emergency rulings, dishing out a parade of executive orders abetted by the inaction of a castrated GOP majority, too intimidated to act against the MAGA. Trump has usurped congressional powers that has never been vested in the US presidency. So, in his puerile concept, trade deficits are emergencies to be resolved by arbitrary tariffs.

The Philippine situation

America has been one of our longest trading partners, having been its colony for more than 100 years. Currently, trade with America totals $23.5 billion. We imported $9.3 billion and exported $14.2 billion for a surplus of $4.9 billion — conversely, America's deficit.

For this deficit on Big Brother, Trump slapped us a reciprocal 17-percent tariff. And we couldn't even retaliate. But being longtime vassals, brown brothers, we should be able to negotiate a lower final tariff rate.

What should worry us is the impact on our overseas Filipino workers (OFWs) — our citizens in diaspora all over the world. Offhand, in 2024 OFW remittances accounted for 8.3 percent of the country's gross domestic product and 7.41percent of gross national income. This represents a substantial contribution to our economy keeping it afloat. This helped us expand our economy by 5.6 percent last year. To a large extent, this $38.34 billion propped up the Philippines better than some other countries in Southeast Asia post the Covid pandemic — and this is not subject to tariffs.

On a much more personal level, remittances are not only one of our major sources of foreign exchange but more importantly, they provide income for families, pay for their rent, put food on the table and send the children to schools, helping these Filipinos to hopefully prop their heads over the poverty line. Trade wars and disruptions in global economies affect the OFW adversely — perforce sinking our own.

A silver lining

As a resilient people, kept under bondage by centuries of foreigners and decades by our own kind — the Filipino politicians and their allies among the political dynasties and the oligarchy — we have a knack for looking at the bright side of any debacle. We should see a window of opportunity in these current US-China driven tariff and trade wars. If we can persuade the anti-Marcos and the anti-Duterte to pause for a moment from their internecine fight and dig deep into their patriotic sinews, then we can follow the adage that "when elephants dance, the ants get out of their way," or at least something to that effect.

There is a window of opportunity opening for us to attract global manufacturing and investments abandoning China and America looking for safe havens.

We have a comparative advantage to ensnare these.

THE Deegong is languishing at The Hague with zero prospects of ever coming home — at least not before the start of the ICC trial in September. The midterm election is upon us, making a mockery of the choice of our political leadership with all sides employing the proverbial "guns-gold-goons" to put in power actors, entertainers, incompetents and the corrupt. But these concerns may be overshadowed by a looming crisis comparable to the years 2008 and 2019.

To recall, the 2008 financial crisis, centered on America triggered a recession stemming from a combination of factors, including a housing bubble fueled by risky mortgages, complex financial instruments peddled by big banks — too big to fail but inadequately regulated; run of bankruptcy and capital exodus. These caused massive job losses and erosion of household wealth, leading to a global economic meltdown.

A decade later, emanating from Wuhan, China, under Xi Jinping's watch, the Covid-19 pandemic struck. The virus killed millions. It devastated economies with forced lockdowns causing social and cultural disruptions lasting for years. America suffered 1.193 million fatalities. This was during Trump's first presidential term, "...where he sought to cure the coronavirus-infected by injecting the patients with bleach and disinfectants and run a light inside the body through the skin..."

The same two personalities are again in the forefront of the 2025 crisis. This time, this crisis was not by an act of God but by an act of a megalomaniac. On April 2, 2025, Trump's imposition of "reciprocal tariffs" across the board against all its trading partners, including penguins in Antarctica and uninhabited islands somewhere, is currently bashing the world and tanking financial markets. By all accounts, his acts were ostensibly to free America from decades of being ripped off by trading partners, singling out China — where a 145-percent tariff was levied on Chinese goods. In retaliation, China slapped a 125-percent tariff on American goods. (The Philippines was slapped 17 percent but has been suspended for 90 days.)

This tit for tat is unconscionable, childish and stupid. Offhand, Trump targeted China as unfairly causing America's biggest trade deficit of $295.4 billion. US exports were $143.5 billion, while imports from China were $438.9 billion. America has been running similar deficits with China for years.

The underlying issues

Trump's main grievances are that these deficits are the result of China's bigoted trade practices, including currency manipulation, subsidies for Chinese industries, and erecting barriers against US companies entering the Chinese market. Tariffs as punitive sanctions are aimed at reforming China's practices regarding intellectual property (IP) theft and forced technology transfers. Trump and previous US presidents have criticized China for its state-led economic model, which it views as giving Chinese companies an unfair advantage over foreign competitors. Tariffs were meant to counteract what the US sees as China's predatory trade practices. But Trump's tariffs, economists agree, are devoid of economic rationality and are simply instruments of blackmail and bully tactics — an extension of the US president's persona.

What Trump wants

Trump's motivations apparently were to fulfill his election promises to MAGA: to bring back six million manufacturing jobs which left America since 1979; cut deficits to the bone; and use tariffs to raise revenue from foreign countries exporting their goods to the US. He declared pompously that, "Tariff is the most beautiful word in the dictionary to me... after God, religion and love... and tariff will make America wealthy again."

This untutored and illiterate buffoon never did understand that tariffs on imports are taxes imposed by a government on goods and services brought into the country from abroad. Economists outside of his circle of sycophants have warned him that tariffs on imports typically lead to higher prices for imported goods. When America imposes a tariff, importers with an eye for their bottom line often pass on the additional costs to consumers. This makes imported products more expensive than the domestically produced alternatives. The effects could be fewer product options to choose from, limiting access to certain goods.

More often than not, domestic producers facing less competition from foreign imports may raise their prices as well — negating the purposes for which tariffs are imposed in the first place.

Advantages of tariff on imports

There are seeming advantages to tariffication, foremost among which is that they protect domestic industries from foreign competition, allowing them time to grow and thrive until they can compete in the international market. Some are aimed at shielding sectors deemed vital for national security and economic stability. While tariffs in the short run provide protection on certain domestic industries and jobs, they can also lead to job losses in other sectors, particularly those reliant solely on imported materials for locally assembled products.

But with the higher costs of imported goods, so the argument goes, US companies could invest more on domestic manufacturing, incentivizing those US companies that have established manufacturing abroad to relocate to the US mainland.

Tariff drawbacks far outweigh the gains

Trump's arguments on relocation of manufacturing from abroad back to the US is tenuous at best. The gestation period as it is, will take several years to get a factory up and running. At which time, America would have possible changes in government after the midterm and presidential elections. Governments and policies can seesaw between the GOP and the Democrats. Unless Trump illegally stays on after 2028 for another term — which he has been hinting at.

But imposition of tariffs is not a one-way-street. Retaliation by countries like Canada, Mexico, the European Union and particularly China, will result in trade wars exacerbating price wars, supply chain disruptions, economic uncertainty and global economic slowdown.

Trump may or may not grasp the subtleties. But Trump's hubris may have driven him to prove globalists got it wrong, not him. His MAGA crowd now claims these are pathways to negotiations. His art of the deal.

But these impending trade wars will inflict too much pain on inflation-weary American consumers compared to the Chinese. A totalitarian state has a much greater leeway curtailing freedoms as it does, in alleviating economic pain than America. China's Covid-19's severe lockdowns come to mind.

After Trump blinked, panicked by the volatility of the bond market, suspending his reciprocal tariffs for 90 days (except those for China), he had to save face with his usual infantile bravado, "...countries will line up to 'kiss my ass' just dying to negotiate. China wants a deal; it just doesn't know how to go about it."

Not true, said Victor Gao, a former translator close to Deng Xiaoping in his interview with Cathy Newman, a journalist. With America composing 15 percent of its exports, can it afford not to negotiate?

Gao's retort: "China is fully prepared to fight to the very end because the world is big enough that the United States is not the totality of the market... China has been here for 5,000 years... and we expect to survive for another 5,000 years."

The two biggest economies with the two biggest egos may yet let the problem fester driving the world deep into a recession. The world may survive, but at what cost. Meanwhile, Trump and Xi Jinping will continue their pissing contest.

Pataasan ng ihi!