SHORTLY after Ferdinand "Makoy" declared martial law in 1972, he purged the bureaucracy, targeting government agencies which he deemed to be corrupt, incompetent and ineffective, particularly the Bureaus of Internal Revenue (BIR) and Customs (BOC). Makoy was in his second term, having been elected in 1965 and 1969.

BBM may have taken a page out of Dad's playbook. One popular speculation was that his Alyansa Para sa Bagong Pilipinas, a well-financed heterogeneous collection of comedians, actors, entertainers, sprinkled with hard-nosed traditional politicians, failed to deliver. Thus, the revamp. This could be one good alibi. The other is that this election was a referendum on BBM's tutelage the past three years. This is debatable. The Alyansa never did reflect the government's notions of governance. Each candidate comes from diverse politically devious camps hastily stitched from fabrics of diverse political ideologies — with some bankrupt of the same, recruited solely for their popularity and electability.

No platforms or programs of government were proposed and defended except for motherhood statements. There were no substantial debates of consequence. This midterm election was a penultimate contest between two erstwhile allied political dynasties, the Marcoses and the Dutertes, and, as in any Philippine elections, simply a clash of personalities and brands; preliminary gambits and a cacophonous prologue to the more lethal presidential elections in the 2028 election cycle.

The issues at hand have none of the economic programs or policy directions but traditional politics defined and imbued with emotional underpinnings: the Deegong's surreptitious rendition to The Hague and the impending ICC trial; the impeachment of VP Sara eliminating her from the political calculus; leading towards the possible expansion and perhaps perpetuation of the Marcos dynasty.

Thus, it's too pat for BBM to revamp the current Cabinet as punishment for this perceived midterm election debacle. In fact, half of the incoming senators, plus more than 80 percent of the lower house members who voted to impeach BBM's archrival, VP Sara, were reelected. BBM's move must be part of a strategy. But what?

Changing the face of the issue

This midterm election may have telegraphed to the public that BBM has been wounded badly though not mortally. There is this ubiquitous perception of failure and weakness. But he has three more years to govern and has full control of the levers of political power in government. This power is immense. Three years is time enough to repair his image and recuperate, demonstrating he is no lame duck.

The Cabinet revamp therefore was a necessary palabas — a moro-moro. BBM is simply executing a misdirection, a sleight of hand creating illusions, deceiving audiences. This is an in-your-face declaration that "I am in control. Anong say mo!" We may be looking at a different BBM today. Thus, parsing the acts of his father in 1972 may give us some hints on his current motivations and the kind of leadership he may want to portray.

Ferdinand Makoy's decisive acts

In retrospect, Ferdinand Makoy in 1972 was laying the ground for the extension of his term beyond 1973. Prior to this, he co-opted the leadership of the Armed Forces (AFP) and the Philippine Constabulary (PC), a military-type police force that maintained peace and order internally, mostly in the provinces.

He seized control with surgical precision. The martial law declaration allowed him to suspend the 1935 Constitution, effectively eliminating legal protections for civil servants and political opponents, removing individuals from their positions without due process. The two houses of the Philippine legislature were physically padlocked; the senators and congressmen, mostly political opponents and rivals, were removed and their leadership arrested.

In the first few hours of the martial rule declaration, Makoy closed all newspaper publications, controlling the media, restricting the flow of information, which helped suppress dissent and fashioned a narrative that supported his regime. It caught the public unaware.  

Makoy centralized authority within the executive branch, diminishing the power of local governments and other branches of government. This allowed him to exert greater control over the bureaucracy. Marcos established new government agencies and bodies, installing subordinates loyal to him, further reinforcing his control over the bureaucracy and ensuring that key functions were handled by trusted individuals.

Subsequently, through a series of actions and policies implemented after the martial law declaration on Sept. 21, 1972, only then did he proceed to purge the bureaucracy. 

BBM'S post-election moves

BBM's actions on May 22, 2025, weren't as grand or dramatic. This wasn't a recalibration or a "bold reset." This was an "inday-inday" limp-wrist act imploring his Cabinet and those heading key government agencies and those who addressed themselves as "secretary," fancying themselves with "Cabinet rank" to tender their "courtesy resignations." This could be the weak BBM's way of allowing his incompetent, corrupt but loyal cronies to save face, accepting their courtesies — mixing them with the good ones.

True enough, on the following day, he retained Executive Secretary Bersamin along with the whole economic team. What a start to his bold reset! The coming days should see the other nonperforming Cabinet members mixed in with the undesirables getting the boot. Rumors are circulating that the first lady may just have to let go of her favorite confreres, insert her own substitutes, and do away with her bête noires — the remnants of the Duterte loyalists. Secretary Guevarra and others may be on the dock.
From the looks of it, BBM may have a seed of a strategy. Depending on the profile of the incoming Cabinet, various scenarios can be deduced. If the same tired old are reinstated, then my first conjecture above may be en point. BBM and the first lady may just want to get rid of the undesirables — in a nice way; for example, booting out Anton Floirendo for the failure of Alyansa and the corruption and anomalies in the BARMM, among others.

But if BBM begins to decapitate the BIR and the BOC, and goes deep attempting to eliminate corruption, intimidate and strike fear in the bureaucracy, then he may be cutting a different but welcome path. But does he really have the balls for it?Advertisement

In 1972/1973 his father culled the bureaucracy of misfits and proceeded to shame them, publishing their names in the press and media. In some ways, Makoy did strike fear in the corrupt bureaucracy, until he himself created and introduced a deadlier superstructure for corruption and depravity — crony capitalism and kleptocracy. 

BBM'S ongoing narrative

BBM can adopt his father's template departing from a type of governance totally different from his personality and style of decision-making. This could wrest the momentum away from the recent perceived victory of the Duterte-backed opposition.

The next few days will give us a better grasp of the raison d'etre of this Cabinet revamp. It is not so much whether the incompetents and the corrupt are replaced. This is not even a recalibration. Methinks that BBM refuses to see that he may be the problem after all. And the whole exercise is to demonstrate that he is not a lame duck. That he still calls the shots!

IN my column shortly before the elections, I reprinted a quote attributed to former senator Frank Drilon (which he has denied): "The best evidence of our political system's desperate bankruptcy is the proliferation of actors, actresses and comedians dominating our legislative and executive branches, including the local government units." (Two elections ... MT, May 7, 2025)

Surprisingly, the voters must have heeded his advice as those he named — popular actors, comedians and TV personalities lost. Foremost among these was Sen. Bong Revilla, who lost his seat. Along with radio-TV personality Ben Tulfo, "Pambansang Kamao" Manny Pacquiao and TV host comedian Willie Revillame, who all figured as shoo-ins in pre-election surveys by SWS, Pulse Asia and OCTA — were all eliminated. This says something for the accuracy, credibility and trustworthiness of these surveys. Popular actor Philip Salvador never made good in the surveys. But Sen. Lito Lapid, a Senate nonperformer but an action star, was a tailender — "nakalusot," as they say in the vernacular.

Marcos' strategic folly

There were many surprises to this midterm election. But perhaps the most glaring is the foolish strategy of the Marcos-Araneta-Romualdez camp in timing the exile and incarceration of former president Duterte at The Hague on March 11, 2025, two months prior to the elections. The Alyansa senatorial slate at the beginning of March was riding high with 10 names in the win column with Erwin Tulfo consistently occupying the top slot; only Bong Go and Bato Dela Rosa from the opposition made it to the winning list, in the 9th to 12th slots. It is a measure of President Duterte's residual political influence, and the sympathy votes he provoked that resurrected the lackluster and anemic PDP-Laban candidates. VP Sara's political weight was likewise evident in singling out Camille Villar and Imee Marcos from the Alyansa, effectively adopting them into the fold of the PDP-Laban.

The Iglesia Ni Cristo's (INC) last-minute support for the "sure winners" finalized the opposition's Bong Go, Bato de la Rosa, Marcoleta, Camille Villar and Imee Marcos to the win column; except for Bong Revilla who got away from his plunder case but has not reportedly returned the P124.5 million he kept. Even the touted INC endorsement couldn't carry the miscreant across the winning column.

Reemergence of VP Sara

VP Sara could be the biggest beneficiary of this midterm with her impeachment now practically dead with Senate allies holding more than one-third of the votes needed to avert a guilty verdict. But recently, with her usual arrogance, she said she wanted the trial to proceed as she wanted a "bloodbath."

Sara has shown her clout with her congressional quadcom tormentors; Stella Quimbo, Dan Fernandez, Benny Abante (both involved in quadcom scandal), France Castro, Mark Go and "Caraps" Paduano, losing their own bid for reelection, leaving The House speaker's team in disarray. Romualdez may soon be replaced as speaker — if BBM had the balls. In his defense, Romualdez, through his spokesman deputy speaker David Suarez, declared that about 86 percent of the 215 congressmen who signed the impeachment complaint against the vice president have been reelected — deriding VP Sara's political weight.

The feud between the two political dynasties, Marcos and Duterte, may have precipitated an unintended consequence, with mostly the young voters disgusted with the same old tradpol practiced by these two factions. This change in voting profile attributed to the changing demographics may have emboldened the decimated remnants of the old "yellow army" back in the equation. This propelled Bam Aquino and Kiko Pangilinan to the Senate, former vice president Leni to the mayoralty of Naga and stalwarts Leila de Lima and Chel Diokno to House as party-list representatives to torment the Dutertes. The "pinklawans" are back.

But these singular elections in no way ushered in a certain maturity in the Filipino voters. One swallow does not a summer make. Money still flowed, particularly from the stolen coffers of the 2025 budget — used by the speaker's minions in the scandalous "Ayuda AKAP" program. The politics of personalities still dominate. Qualified candidates, among them Heidi Mendoza, Luke Espiritu, and Sonny Matula, etc. under the present dysfunctional system could never make it.

Undetermined results

Overall, our system is still entrenched deep in tradpol practices where dynasties and their oligarchic allies reign supreme, although results were mixed. The Cebu Garcias, descendants of Pablo Garcia who founded the dynasty upon the political carcasses of the Osmeñas and Cuencos, were obliterated. Yet in Davao City the ascendant Duterte children saw the complete annihilation of the once formidable Castillo-Nograles-Garcia clan, trouncing the late founder Nonoy Garcia's second district. VP Sara revealed that this decades-long alliance unraveled earlier in January 2005 by a "snub" on the Dutertes, forcing the latter to field the candidacy of Omar, a complete unknown but a Duterte grandson.

But in the five Davao provinces BBM's PFP held sway in most governorships. Congressman John Cagas, the only Davao region lawmaker to have voted to impeach VP Sara, got a fresh mandate.

The blame game has started. BBM's special assistant Anton Lagdameo, scion of the once formidable Floirendo-Del Rosario-Garcia clan, could get the axe for mishandling the campaign in BARMM. Except for Lapid, none of Alyansa's 10 senatorial bets won. Also, "Teng" Mangudadatu has accused Lagdameo of practically "pocketing" billions of BARMM funds.

Systemic reforms

This state of affairs will go unchanged unless the underlying systemic dysfunctions protected by the 1987 Constitution are revised. There is a slim chance for constitutional revisions as the three guardians of the Cory Constitution, Bam Aquino, Kiko Pangilinan and Risa Hontiveros will have their say against Robin Padilla, the Senate committee on constitutional revisions chairman who surprisingly is turning out to be the champion of a shift from a unitary-presidential to a federal-parliamentary system. These are advocates of the Centrist Democrats and the original PDP-Laban founded by the late senator Nene Pimentel — captured and perverted by the Deegong in 2016.

With the remnants of the Cory "yellows" confronting the Dutertes and the Marcos-Araneta-Romualdez factions, a tectonic shift in the political firmament may occur once the state of the nation is defined by the lame duck BBM followed by the ICC trial of the Deegong. The second half of this year will be an opportunity for the emerging opposition in the highest echelons of Philippine political leadership to strengthen itself as a third force.

Since traditional politics still rule, we will be drawn to speculations on who will be the next president rather than how the myriad problems of the country are to be solved; poverty alleviation, the disparity between the haves and the have-nots, injustices, and the perversion of the rule of law will be relegated to the backburner. Evidence surfacing on the ICC trial could spell the Deegong's guilt or innocence, a game changer, impacting on his daughter's political fortunes.

Peripheral to the dispensing of justice, this ICC trial could be a telenovela dear to Filipinos, with episodes lasting for years which the Deegong does not have. And his demise, Inshalla, would be the ultimate roll of the dice — for him, for the Marcos-Araneta-Romualdez faction and for the fortunes of his daughter. But nothing towards the upliftment of the Filipino.

THE recent conclave elected an unknown to lead 1.4 billion Catholics. But the drama of the elections will remain locked within the muted confines of the Sistine Chapel that has been a silent witness and keeper of countless secrets for millennia. Since Pope Francis died, the world speculated on a number of Church dignitaries as papabile. Among the favorites were Luis Antonio Cardinal Tagle, Archbishop Emeritus of Manila; Matteo Maria Cardinal Zuppi, Archbishop of Bologna; Pietro Cardinal Parolin, the Vatican's Secretary of State; Pierbattista Cardinal Pizabella, Latin Patriarch of Jerusalem; and Peter Cardinal Erdo, Archbishop of Budapest. But the Holy Spirit who guided the cardinal-electors had a different favorite keeping His choice en pectore, revealing to the world only through a white smoke, an American, Robert Cardinal Prevost, who will occupy the throne of St. Peter as Leo XIV. "Qui in conclave ut papa intrat, ut cardinalis exiit (He who enters the conclave as a pope, leaves it as a cardinal)." Truly, the Christian God works in mysterious ways.

Beijing's not so secret plan

As secret as the proceedings of the conclave were, those of China's Politburo were not. The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) document, principally authored by Xi Jinping himself entitled "A Resolution — to win the initiative in historic upheaval through decisive struggle" is a master plan to counter President Trump's unilateral and irresponsible imposition of his tariffs. For Beijing, this is no longer a trade dispute resolvable through the "art of the deal." These provocations are a casus belli. The CCP's secret document is therefore an assertion of a full-blown trade war encompassing economic, diplomatic and military domains, in the classic Chinese discernment of "wei ji" — crisis as opportunity.

This classified document shared with the political leadership and subsequently leaked to Yuen Hongping, a former CCP insider now a dissident professor in exile was perhaps the Chinese inscrutable way of reaching out to Trump, a simpleton, being forewarned before he does another precipitate act.

The tariff onslaught caught the Chinese off guard, but their response was nonetheless quick. This document is Xi Jinping's playbook with a full spectrum of sweeping strategies for confrontation with America. The following are excerpts from Chinese Australian journalist Cheng Lei and Heng He, a China analyst and commentator. Briefly the document outlined five strategies to counter any eventualities.

Five strategies

Taking advantage of US allies' anger and frustration, Beijing fashioned its first strategy to build a united front, targeting Germany, France, UK, Canada, Japan, South Korea and Australia. And if Trump refuses to back down, India and Vietnam will be further enticed. This coalition of aggrieved countries could isolate the US pushing it out of the globalization process and unseat it from economic dominance.

The second strategy is an accelerating two-step "financial war plans." First is internal, targeting the Chinese political elite's foreign assets; keeping track of foreign deposits held by party officials and executives working for state-owned enterprises (SOEs) for amounts exceeding $200,000. Trump's insistence on his tariffs will result in a decoupling, a breakdown of relationship with China, triggering a massive transference of funds from the US back to China or to any neutral country. Non-compliance is a treasonable act to be met with severe punishment.

The second step is directed externally towards the destabilization of the US financial markets which could trigger a meltdown deadlier than that of the 2008 financial crisis. Chinese officials on short notice are to dump $1 trillion in US treasury bonds and simultaneously short $2 trillion in US corporate equity and debt securities. Japan, which has bigger holdings than China, could be drawn into this financial morass precipitating a domino effect collapsing US markets. This could result in a world economic recession or worse.

The third strategy are domestic measures for a prolonged economic war strengthening China and its citizens' economic self-reliance, a drastic domestic market circulation system — euphemism for government rationing of food, meat, grain, vegetables, etc. China, an authoritarian government, has a better chance of successfully inflicting severe hardship on its citizenry compared to the US or democratic regimes — where individual rights and privileges are paramount and street protests could be disastrous. Rationing is the CCP's secret weapon as it did after the Cultural Revolution in the 1970s when the economy was decimated; not to mention the great famine under the Great Leader Mao.

The fourth strategy calls for the deepening of partnership with Iran, Russia and North Korea, natural foes of democratic America and applying greater influence in Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar and Thailand, countries already susceptible to Marxist ideals on the concept of "economic power shaping political power." And more importantly driving a wedge between NATO countries and allies. Particular emphasis would be given to the seething anger over Trump's disrespect of Canada, inviting it to be a subordinate state to the US. This classic "divide and weaken" relationship with America's old allies will eventually undermine US global leadership.

The first island chain countries that have been preventing China from extending its influence toward the Eastern Pacific can be subverted. The CCP must work to weaken US traditional relations with Japan, South Korea, Australia and New Zealand, eroding and isolating America, breaking its status as global policeman, ending its 80-year post-war dominance.

The last strategy involves Taiwan where confrontation becomes inevitable if the economic war intensifies. Xi is convinced he has geography on his side giving him the home court advantage, carefully choosing the timing while the US is putting out fires everywhere. Secret documents call for Xi's full implementation of his strategic vision, preparing for a military showdown with the US in the Taiwan Strait.

In this secret document, this "new type of conventional war is fought under a full spectrum information warfare backed by a credible nuclear deterrent." In the likelihood that the US intervenes China with its superior and more numerous missiles and growing military might, can destroy military bases in Japan, South Korea (with ally North Korea), the Philippines and Guam. US forces are expected to retreat east to Hawaii, effectively reducing the US to a regional power.

The CCP's final declaration in that secret document states: "Only by bravely facing the storm can we achieve great victory," concluding that by defeating Trump's total offensive beginning with the tariff war, the CCP's vision of a community of common destiny will become the global path forward.

Reaction of majority CCP leadership

Professor Yuen said, "The CCP hopes that the resolution would stabilize internal moral order after the shock of Trump's tariff war." But the result instead was the opposite.

This document sparked a wave of extreme anxiety throughout the CCP bureaucracy. Imagine those officials with children and assets in the US who must now repatriate to China. This rule affects 80 to 90 percent of the officials. Most of them have assets abroad. This has turned many of them against Xi's leadership.

THIS month, we face two elections. The conclave in Rome where the leadership of the 1.4 billion Catholics in the world is decided upon by 133 electors and where all Catholics have no influence at all in the outcome; and the Philippine midterm elections, where the political leadership is voted upon by the millions of Filipinos, yet the outcome has long been determined by our dysfunctional governance system and the aberrant electoral process. To many Filipino Catholics, comparing the conclave to the midterm elections could be blasphemous. They could be wrong.

Conclave

A conclave is held only when a pope dies or abdicates. Convened to choose a successor, the electors are the cardinals, highly educated and experienced in the Church bureaucracy, having attained the highest ranks in their respective dioceses. They start as ordinary priests and go up the ranks as bishops and archbishops to princes of the Church. If elected in a conclave, he attains the highest rank of Bishop of Rome, Vicar of Christ on earth, successor to St. Peter.

Currently there are 252 cardinals but only 133 qualified electors. Those 80 years old and above are proscribed by the Church apostolic constitution. To be elected pope, the papabile needs two-thirds supermajority of 89 votes.

As in many Catholic Church traditions, the conclave has for millennia been steeped in mystery and the arcana of obscure protocols. The ancient ways are shrouded in the mist of time, impenetrable but for some rare instances. Church history is replete with leakages from these consistories providing morsels of compelling stories down the centuries.

As in any assemblage that anoints the most powerful from among themselves, conclaves are not entirely exempt from the exigencies of politics, bargaining, negotiations, and campaigning. In the Catholic faith, the Holy Spirit enlightens the cardinal-electors in their solemn duty but may be cognizant of the unholy political maneuverings and intrigues of the cardinals — who after all are only human, and exclusively male.

A case in point is the first conclave held in the Sistine Chapel in 1492. Cardinal Rodrigo Borgia, nephew of Pope Calixtus III was elected Pope Alexander VI. He bribed and bought the votes with promise of appointments to lucrative positions in the bureaucracy and the Church hierarchy. In 1590 King Philip II of Spain, the most powerful man in Europe, then wanted his own pope. In that conclave, he listed seven cardinals he could accept as pope and another list of 30 he wished to veto (yes, powerful Catholic monarchs had the right of royal veto then — jus exclusivae). The conclave did as he wanted. He got his Pope, Urban VIII who reigned for 12 days. (Wikipedia).

Admittedly excesses plague subsequent conclaves and scandals erupt intermittently to the present day but the Church has managed to impose corrective measures resulting in the election of God's good men, spiritual leaders influencing the directions of the Church, its teachings, and priorities. These are men of moral authority with views and voices spanning secular concerns on global issues on poverty, human rights, climate change and social justice. Post-war popes continue to shape cultural conversations and influence societal norms, not just among Catholics but in broader society — including other faiths.

PH midterm elections — out with the old

Contrast this with our election exercises since decades past when we discontinued electing serious leaders and patriotic politicians of vision. I quote a social media post attributed to former senator Franklin Drilon on the state of Philippine politics. He denied the quote, but the portrayals are valid just the same and probably the reason why it went viral.

"The best evidence of our political system's desperate bankruptcy is the proliferation of actors, actresses and comedians dominating our legislative and executive branches, including the local government units.

"Willy Revillame is a good man. He has helped a lot of people, including the women that he loved. But that doesn't make him prepared for the work of a senator. Philip Salvador is a fine actor. He made many people happy, including Kris Aquino, whom he gifted with a son. But such credentials are not what are needed in the Senate. Lito Lapid is an excellent actor, but he hasn't performed enough in the Philippine Senate. By insisting to remain in the Senate, he effectively eased out the more qualified, the more competent candidates.

"...Bong Revilla...has made politics his family business with his wife and sons all serving the government. Manny Pacquiao is the richest politician, next to the Villars. Of course, he deserves his wealth because he earned all of it. But the fact that he is a world champion in eight different boxing categories doesn't make him prepared as a legislator. Tito Sotto has been a good public servant, but he has served enough and at his age, he should give way to the younger, more dynamic and more progressive legislators. Erwin Tulfo should clarify his citizenship and explain to the people why the Commission on Appointments refused to confirm his appointment as DSWD secretary. Ben Tulfo should stay away from the Senate and should instead leave Raffy Tulfo alone there."

Correcting a defective system

More disturbing are the current reelectionists who during the Gordon Senate blue ribbon committee hearings refused to sign the draft panel report on the anomalies hounding the multibillion-peso Covid-19 contracts of the Duterte government. The multi-billion corruption and plunder were executed at a time of the country's greatest tragedy. They want your votes again: Lito Lapid, Pia Cayetano, Bong Go, Bong Revilla, Francis Tolentino and Imee Marcos.

I will not discuss the qualifications of the rest. I leave that to the individual voter to discern that correcting the systemic dysfunctions of our governance are of primordial importance (www.cdpi.asia). I refer to the systemic defects that have plagued our governance:

– Political patronage is deeply embedded in the political system where public officials prioritize personal gain over the public good and in the process fosters corruption, inequalities, weak institutions, erosion of democratic values and the distortion of the rule of law.

– Political dynasties proliferate, concentrating power in the hands of a few families, limiting political diversity, perpetuating a cycle of inequality and disenfranchisement. And in the Philippine context, political dynasties have married their interest with that of the oligarchy, blurring the lines between economic and political power accumulation.

– The unitary-presidential system of government as practiced in the country is the embryo upon which patronage politics is nurtured, and when paired with our electoral processes, it becomes the overarching environment upon which political patronage incubates.

These systemic anomalies interact resulting in bad governance reinforced by economic provisions in our 1987 Constitution that impede the influx of foreign direct investments (FDIs) which are the lifeblood of economic growth. We have been pushing for political reforms fruitlessly through constitutional revisions since President Cory's time.

Only a few senatorial candidates understand these magnitudes. Knowing their track records, if elected, they will work towards the revision of the 1987 Constitution: Norberto Gonzales, Raul Lambino and Sonny Matula. For what it's worth, we must vote for them.

BY his 90-day proscription period, and beyond, the world will be in a quandary, mulling over Trump's next moves over the suspension of his reciprocal tariffs. Knowing that this arrogant bully by now has revealed to the world that he really doesn't have any notion as to the ramifications of his decisions, he will continue spinning this face-saving disarray as a masterstroke. Since no remaining adults in the White House can impose a semblance of order, he must rely solely on the feedback mechanisms of the unthinking "baskets of deplorables." Even the likes of subaltern Elon Musk and his ilk and those within MAGA who have had a recent reversal of fortunes, will inch themselves out of this nightmarish state of affairs that will ensue if this wave of disenchantment and protests, particularly from the "red" states, snowballs throughout America.

As gleaned from Trump's humiliating surrender, forced to exclude from his China tariff smartphones, computers, laptops and other electronic devices, semiconductors, solar cells, and memory cards, etc., chances are he will unilaterally proclaim the rest of the suspended reciprocal tariffs no longer operable. declaring a victory; that he has succeeded in getting everyone to the negotiating table — including his nemesis, China. Each economy will find itself treading its own path — the big ones with a combined nominal GDP of $77.56 trillion, Germany, Japan, India, UK, France, Italy, Canada, Brazil, aside from the US and China will be dominating the narrative for the foreseeable future. I am more concerned with my country and how it will wade through this morass.

Economy and trade profile

The Philippines ranks 38th among 199 world economies with a GDP of $507.67 billion. In 2024, total trade was $200.6 billion, broken into $73.2 billion exports and $127.4 billion imports with deficits of $54.2 billion. We run a deficit with China and a surplus with America. The bulk of our exports are electronics, woodcraft and furniture and some manufactured goods, chiefly to the US and Japan ($12.12 billion and $10.33 billion, respectively).

Our imports are petroleum, oils and coal and integrated circuits which we then assemble and re-export as various categories of electronic products; shipped largely from China totaling 25.7 percent of total import value amounting to $32.83 billion. We run a deficit of $4.14 billion.

What we have, others may not

With American firms abandoning China, perhaps we can entice some of these manufacturing companies to relocate to the Philippines highlighting our comparative advantage. Aside from being one of the oldest trading partners of America, having been America's first colony, ever, we can play the "brown brother" card. We are the only Christian country in these parts. And we love Hollywood more than Bollywood.

At the turn of the century, the "Thomasites," 600 American teachers, traveled from the US to the newly occupied territory to establish the public education system patterned after America. They came aboard the US Army transport ship USS Thomas, thus the name. They planted the seeds for what would eventually become a large pool of bilingual English-speaking, educated and skilled workers.

Outsourcing services

This gave rise to the BPO industry — the business process outsourcing that has been providing services such as customer and technical support, and back-office operations to companies around the world, especially in the US — where our labor is much more competitive.

BPO has grown exponentially not only due to our skilled bilingual hardworking young workers but by the quirks of the 12-hour time difference. The 9 to 5 daytime working hours in America are serviced by our 9 to 5 night shift workers.

PH eyes deeper military ties with Taiwan

Not to mention the large pool of OFW experienced in working abroad who, due to the looming Trump-induced global economic turbulence, may be moving back home themselves. These are the Filipinos who have been the backbone of health care, workers in the information technology sectors, manufacturing and construction who may be attractive to foreign firms relocating to the country.

Geography and tourism

The Philippines is strategically located in Southeast Asia serving as a gateway to other markets in the region — with close proximity to China, Malaysia, Singapore, Japan, Korea, and Indonesia — powerhouse economies. And with its tropical climate — we only have dry and wet seasons — no winter frosts, allowing an abundance of all-year-round exotic fruits and agricultural products in demand in the international market. The country as an archipelago also boasts of the fifth longest coastline in the world measuring 36,289 kilometers (22,549 miles) where surrounding seas are abundant with seafood.

Our tourism sector has world-class destinations with amenities from the world-famous Boracay to El Nido to Gintubay to secluded beach hideaways and diving spots in the coastal provinces; to mountain areas with cooler climes at higher altitudes and rainforests with diverse fauna/flora — accessible to local metropolises where inexpensive shopping and local and international restaurants cater to all types of cuisine.

Manufacturing — emerging market

The Philippines has a growing manufacturing sector, particularly in electronics and semiconductors. It is a key player in the global supply chain for electronic components, which permeate many industries, including technology, automotive and non-robotic assembly lines. We have long established bilateral and multilateral trade agreements that enhance our trade relations with other countries, including the US itself. The Generalized System of Preferences (GSP) allows certain Philippine products to enter the US market duty-free, promoting exports — unless Trump insists on extracting his pound of flesh on our imports. Coming from a still low base of development, the country presents opportunities for investment and a wide space for growth — making it an attractive destination for foreign direct investments (FDI) in many of the economic sectors. These comparative advantages position the Philippines favorably in international trade, particularly with the US and other countries in the region.

The flip side

Although we have managed to emerge as an economic tiger cub in the region and we have long shed our image as the "sick man in Asia," our system of governance has time and again reinforced those defective structures and pulled us back to where we were. We have long established that our systemic defects in governance — rent-seeking bureaucrats, corrupt elected officials, traditional politics, political dynasties and the complicit oligarchy — are the root causes why the country can't move forward as fast as we want to despite the comparative advantages described above.

We have long identified that our 1987 Constitution — written as a knee-jerk derivative of decades of the totalitarian martial law regime — is the instrument that has encased and institutionalized these systemic deficiencies. For one, some provisions prevent foreign direct investments (FDI) from pouring into the country — the lifeblood of economic growth.

We, the progressives, have always clamored for the revision of the 1987 FDI-averse Constitution. And the conservatives and the guardians of the status quo entrenched in the power structure of the country, shielded by the Constitution, have always managed to stymie the needed systemic reforms that could propel our country forward. We have a very slim chance this midterm elections can put in place the seeds of possible reforms.

We have some senatorial candidates who may fit the mold of the constitutional reformists that may need our votes.

BY his 90-day proscription period, and beyond, the world will be in a quandary, mulling over Trump's next moves over the suspension of his reciprocal tariffs. Knowing that this arrogant bully by now has revealed to the world that he really doesn't have any notion as to the ramifications of his decisions, he will continue spinning this face-saving disarray as a masterstroke. Since no remaining adults in the White House can impose a semblance of order, he must rely solely on the feedback mechanisms of the unthinking "baskets of deplorables." Even the likes of subaltern Elon Musk and his ilk and those within MAGA who have had a recent reversal of fortunes, will inch themselves out of this nightmarish state of affairs that will ensue if this wave of disenchantment and protests, particularly from the "red" states, snowballs throughout America.

As gleaned from Trump's humiliating surrender, forced to exclude from his China tariff smartphones, computers, laptops and other electronic devices, semiconductors, solar cells, and memory cards, etc., chances are he will unilaterally proclaim the rest of the suspended reciprocal tariffs no longer operable. declaring a victory; that he has succeeded in getting everyone to the negotiating table — including his nemesis, China. Each economy will find itself treading its own path — the big ones with a combined nominal GDP of $77.56 trillion, Germany, Japan, India, UK, France, Italy, Canada, Brazil, aside from the US and China will be dominating the narrative for the foreseeable future. I am more concerned with my country and how it will wade through this morass.

Economy and trade profile

The Philippines ranks 38th among 199 world economies with a GDP of $507.67 billion. In 2024, total trade was $200.6 billion, broken into $73.2 billion exports and $127.4 billion imports with deficits of $54.2 billion. We run a deficit with China and a surplus with America. The bulk of our exports are electronics, woodcraft and furniture and some manufactured goods, chiefly to the US and Japan ($12.12 billion and $10.33 billion, respectively).

Our imports are petroleum, oils and coal and integrated circuits which we then assemble and re-export as various categories of electronic products; shipped largely from China totaling 25.7 percent of total import value amounting to $32.83 billion. We run a deficit of $4.14 billion.

What we have, others may not

With American firms abandoning China, perhaps we can entice some of these manufacturing companies to relocate to the Philippines highlighting our comparative advantage. Aside from being one of the oldest trading partners of America, having been America's first colony, ever, we can play the "brown brother" card. We are the only Christian country in these parts. And we love Hollywood more than Bollywood.

At the turn of the century, the "Thomasites," 600 American teachers, traveled from the US to the newly occupied territory to establish the public education system patterned after America. They came aboard the US Army transport ship USS Thomas, thus the name. They planted the seeds for what would eventually become a large pool of bilingual English-speaking, educated and skilled workers.

Outsourcing services

This gave rise to the BPO industry — the business process outsourcing that has been providing services such as customer and technical support, and back-office operations to companies around the world, especially in the US — where our labor is much more competitive.

BPO has grown exponentially not only due to our skilled bilingual hardworking young workers but by the quirks of the 12-hour time difference. The 9 to 5 daytime working hours in America are serviced by our 9 to 5 night shift workers.

PH eyes deeper military ties with Taiwan

Not to mention the large pool of OFW experienced in working abroad who, due to the looming Trump-induced global economic turbulence, may be moving back home themselves. These are the Filipinos who have been the backbone of health care, workers in the information technology sectors, manufacturing and construction who may be attractive to foreign firms relocating to the country.

Geography and tourism

The Philippines is strategically located in Southeast Asia serving as a gateway to other markets in the region — with close proximity to China, Malaysia, Singapore, Japan, Korea, and Indonesia — powerhouse economies. And with its tropical climate — we only have dry and wet seasons — no winter frosts, allowing an abundance of all-year-round exotic fruits and agricultural products in demand in the international market. The country as an archipelago also boasts of the fifth longest coastline in the world measuring 36,289 kilometers (22,549 miles) where surrounding seas are abundant with seafood.

Our tourism sector has world-class destinations with amenities from the world-famous Boracay to El Nido to Gintubay to secluded beach hideaways and diving spots in the coastal provinces; to mountain areas with cooler climes at higher altitudes and rainforests with diverse fauna/flora — accessible to local metropolises where inexpensive shopping and local and international restaurants cater to all types of cuisine.

Manufacturing — emerging market

The Philippines has a growing manufacturing sector, particularly in electronics and semiconductors. It is a key player in the global supply chain for electronic components, which permeate many industries, including technology, automotive and non-robotic assembly lines. We have long established bilateral and multilateral trade agreements that enhance our trade relations with other countries, including the US itself. The Generalized System of Preferences (GSP) allows certain Philippine products to enter the US market duty-free, promoting exports — unless Trump insists on extracting his pound of flesh on our imports. Coming from a still low base of development, the country presents opportunities for investment and a wide space for growth — making it an attractive destination for foreign direct investments (FDI) in many of the economic sectors. These comparative advantages position the Philippines favorably in international trade, particularly with the US and other countries in the region.

The flip side

Although we have managed to emerge as an economic tiger cub in the region and we have long shed our image as the "sick man in Asia," our system of governance has time and again reinforced those defective structures and pulled us back to where we were. We have long established that our systemic defects in governance — rent-seeking bureaucrats, corrupt elected officials, traditional politics, political dynasties and the complicit oligarchy — are the root causes why the country can't move forward as fast as we want to despite the comparative advantages described above.

We have long identified that our 1987 Constitution — written as a knee-jerk derivative of decades of the totalitarian martial law regime — is the instrument that has encased and institutionalized these systemic deficiencies. For one, some provisions prevent foreign direct investments (FDI) from pouring into the country — the lifeblood of economic growth.

We, the progressives, have always clamored for the revision of the 1987 FDI-averse Constitution. And the conservatives and the guardians of the status quo entrenched in the power structure of the country, shielded by the Constitution, have always managed to stymie the needed systemic reforms that could propel our country forward. We have a very slim chance this midterm elections can put in place the seeds of possible reforms.

We have some senatorial candidates who may fit the mold of the constitutional reformists that may need our votes.

THE Donald blinked! But the scam artist and his minions made tons of money on the side. Trump has always telegraphed his disdain towards China and cockeyed intentions for the rest of the world. His campaign centered on raising tariffs globally to avenge America being ripped off. Barely a month into his second term, he arbitrarily fashioned a semblance of a scheme.

On Feb. 4, 2025, Trump imposed a 10-percent tariff on China; and on March 4, another 20 percent. Bolstered by China's non-response, he declared on April 2, America's "Liberation Day," bullying trading partners with a minimum 10-percent tariff on all US imports plus higher tariffs on 57 countries. China was singled out with an additional 34 percent. The pissing contest commenced.

On April 4, China retaliated with its own tariff of 34 percent. In a pique, Trump raised the ante to 145 percent. But on April 9, China hit back with 84 percent; and on April 11 slapped America further with 125 percent.

Trump was stunned but clueless still that his decisions on tariffs in two days, April 2 and 3, had obliterated $10 trillion of the global market capitalization. But more deadly, he precipitated a state of violent uncertainty, a bane to nations and corporations planning out their economies. The world is held hostage to the impulses of this inveterate megalomaniac.

The scam on the side

But before that, on April 10 — eight days after his "Liberation Day" announcements — the Donald caved in but hatched a diabolical scheme allowing his cronies and perhaps himself to make millions on the world financial markets. Hours before he announced a 90-day suspension of the April 2 tariff, he tweeted what could have been a signal to his friends, "This is a great time to buy!" Upon opening, the DOW skyrocketed 2,963 points — raking in millions for those that got the alert a few hours earlier. Senate Democrats want this insider trading investigated.

Then on April 13, Trump, humiliated, surrendered on the tariff war! He had to exclude 20 categories of Chinese electronics from the 90-day tariff suspension: smartphones, computers, laptops and other electronic devices, semiconductors, solar cells and memory cards.

To save face, he pretended this was his masterstroke — part of his plan all along, art of the deal — announcing 60 countries are "kissing his ass" to negotiate. Some did sue to negotiate. Not China. Trump prevaricated that China wants to negotiate but doesn't know how to go about it. "Please, pretty please, call to negotiate" — could have been Trump's plea to Xi Jinping!

The faux-free market capitalist

Predictably, Trump is incapable of grasping the repercussions of his acts. He plays things "oido" — no notes, bereft of strategy whatsoever, only chaos. As Jeffrey Sachs, the eminent Harvard political economist said, Trump's understanding of world trade and deficits is very low — Mickey Mouse level; with apologies to the Mickey who is smarter than the Donald. He is antediluvian on economic principles, unappreciative of the nuances of world trade as mutually beneficial — that if you stop trade, everybody loses. He is a zero-sum gamer; I win, you lose!

It has not sunk in that his decisions caused a sell-off in the bond markets — US Treasury debts — the safest financial instruments in the world, increasing yields on these bonds leading to increased borrowing rates for consumers and businesses potentially slowing global economic growth. Of the $36 trillion US debt, $7.9 trillion is held by Japan, China and the UK; heavily tariffed, they can dump these debts in retaliation.

American allies know that what Trump is doing is irrational. His tariffs, particularly against his bete noire, — China, at 145 percent. Sachs says he is driven "...by the USA's deep neurotic attachment to China — the US Political System hates China... because China's big and successful." This brewing trade war between America and China will mess up the whole world.

In the end, China, which does not depend so much on its 12 percent exports to the US, wins. Former NEDA director-general Cielito Habito warned: "China, shut off from the US market with prohibitive tariffs, will flood Southeast Asian markets with their manufactured products that have nowhere else to go — and in the process kill domestic manufacturers along with hundreds of thousands, possibly millions of jobs elsewhere in the region."

Tyrannus idioticus

On the corollary question: How can this happen when this makes no sense? Sach's take is that the US is now under one-person rule. The US political system is in a state of collapse. Trump operates by emergency rulings, dishing out a parade of executive orders abetted by the inaction of a castrated GOP majority, too intimidated to act against the MAGA. Trump has usurped congressional powers that has never been vested in the US presidency. So, in his puerile concept, trade deficits are emergencies to be resolved by arbitrary tariffs.

The Philippine situation

America has been one of our longest trading partners, having been its colony for more than 100 years. Currently, trade with America totals $23.5 billion. We imported $9.3 billion and exported $14.2 billion for a surplus of $4.9 billion — conversely, America's deficit.

For this deficit on Big Brother, Trump slapped us a reciprocal 17-percent tariff. And we couldn't even retaliate. But being longtime vassals, brown brothers, we should be able to negotiate a lower final tariff rate.

What should worry us is the impact on our overseas Filipino workers (OFWs) — our citizens in diaspora all over the world. Offhand, in 2024 OFW remittances accounted for 8.3 percent of the country's gross domestic product and 7.41percent of gross national income. This represents a substantial contribution to our economy keeping it afloat. This helped us expand our economy by 5.6 percent last year. To a large extent, this $38.34 billion propped up the Philippines better than some other countries in Southeast Asia post the Covid pandemic — and this is not subject to tariffs.

On a much more personal level, remittances are not only one of our major sources of foreign exchange but more importantly, they provide income for families, pay for their rent, put food on the table and send the children to schools, helping these Filipinos to hopefully prop their heads over the poverty line. Trade wars and disruptions in global economies affect the OFW adversely — perforce sinking our own.

A silver lining

As a resilient people, kept under bondage by centuries of foreigners and decades by our own kind — the Filipino politicians and their allies among the political dynasties and the oligarchy — we have a knack for looking at the bright side of any debacle. We should see a window of opportunity in these current US-China driven tariff and trade wars. If we can persuade the anti-Marcos and the anti-Duterte to pause for a moment from their internecine fight and dig deep into their patriotic sinews, then we can follow the adage that "when elephants dance, the ants get out of their way," or at least something to that effect.

There is a window of opportunity opening for us to attract global manufacturing and investments abandoning China and America looking for safe havens.

We have a comparative advantage to ensnare these.

THE Deegong is languishing at The Hague with zero prospects of ever coming home — at least not before the start of the ICC trial in September. The midterm election is upon us, making a mockery of the choice of our political leadership with all sides employing the proverbial "guns-gold-goons" to put in power actors, entertainers, incompetents and the corrupt. But these concerns may be overshadowed by a looming crisis comparable to the years 2008 and 2019.

To recall, the 2008 financial crisis, centered on America triggered a recession stemming from a combination of factors, including a housing bubble fueled by risky mortgages, complex financial instruments peddled by big banks — too big to fail but inadequately regulated; run of bankruptcy and capital exodus. These caused massive job losses and erosion of household wealth, leading to a global economic meltdown.

A decade later, emanating from Wuhan, China, under Xi Jinping's watch, the Covid-19 pandemic struck. The virus killed millions. It devastated economies with forced lockdowns causing social and cultural disruptions lasting for years. America suffered 1.193 million fatalities. This was during Trump's first presidential term, "...where he sought to cure the coronavirus-infected by injecting the patients with bleach and disinfectants and run a light inside the body through the skin..."

The same two personalities are again in the forefront of the 2025 crisis. This time, this crisis was not by an act of God but by an act of a megalomaniac. On April 2, 2025, Trump's imposition of "reciprocal tariffs" across the board against all its trading partners, including penguins in Antarctica and uninhabited islands somewhere, is currently bashing the world and tanking financial markets. By all accounts, his acts were ostensibly to free America from decades of being ripped off by trading partners, singling out China — where a 145-percent tariff was levied on Chinese goods. In retaliation, China slapped a 125-percent tariff on American goods. (The Philippines was slapped 17 percent but has been suspended for 90 days.)

This tit for tat is unconscionable, childish and stupid. Offhand, Trump targeted China as unfairly causing America's biggest trade deficit of $295.4 billion. US exports were $143.5 billion, while imports from China were $438.9 billion. America has been running similar deficits with China for years.

The underlying issues

Trump's main grievances are that these deficits are the result of China's bigoted trade practices, including currency manipulation, subsidies for Chinese industries, and erecting barriers against US companies entering the Chinese market. Tariffs as punitive sanctions are aimed at reforming China's practices regarding intellectual property (IP) theft and forced technology transfers. Trump and previous US presidents have criticized China for its state-led economic model, which it views as giving Chinese companies an unfair advantage over foreign competitors. Tariffs were meant to counteract what the US sees as China's predatory trade practices. But Trump's tariffs, economists agree, are devoid of economic rationality and are simply instruments of blackmail and bully tactics — an extension of the US president's persona.

What Trump wants

Trump's motivations apparently were to fulfill his election promises to MAGA: to bring back six million manufacturing jobs which left America since 1979; cut deficits to the bone; and use tariffs to raise revenue from foreign countries exporting their goods to the US. He declared pompously that, "Tariff is the most beautiful word in the dictionary to me... after God, religion and love... and tariff will make America wealthy again."

This untutored and illiterate buffoon never did understand that tariffs on imports are taxes imposed by a government on goods and services brought into the country from abroad. Economists outside of his circle of sycophants have warned him that tariffs on imports typically lead to higher prices for imported goods. When America imposes a tariff, importers with an eye for their bottom line often pass on the additional costs to consumers. This makes imported products more expensive than the domestically produced alternatives. The effects could be fewer product options to choose from, limiting access to certain goods.

More often than not, domestic producers facing less competition from foreign imports may raise their prices as well — negating the purposes for which tariffs are imposed in the first place.

Advantages of tariff on imports

There are seeming advantages to tariffication, foremost among which is that they protect domestic industries from foreign competition, allowing them time to grow and thrive until they can compete in the international market. Some are aimed at shielding sectors deemed vital for national security and economic stability. While tariffs in the short run provide protection on certain domestic industries and jobs, they can also lead to job losses in other sectors, particularly those reliant solely on imported materials for locally assembled products.

But with the higher costs of imported goods, so the argument goes, US companies could invest more on domestic manufacturing, incentivizing those US companies that have established manufacturing abroad to relocate to the US mainland.

Tariff drawbacks far outweigh the gains

Trump's arguments on relocation of manufacturing from abroad back to the US is tenuous at best. The gestation period as it is, will take several years to get a factory up and running. At which time, America would have possible changes in government after the midterm and presidential elections. Governments and policies can seesaw between the GOP and the Democrats. Unless Trump illegally stays on after 2028 for another term — which he has been hinting at.

But imposition of tariffs is not a one-way-street. Retaliation by countries like Canada, Mexico, the European Union and particularly China, will result in trade wars exacerbating price wars, supply chain disruptions, economic uncertainty and global economic slowdown.

Trump may or may not grasp the subtleties. But Trump's hubris may have driven him to prove globalists got it wrong, not him. His MAGA crowd now claims these are pathways to negotiations. His art of the deal.

But these impending trade wars will inflict too much pain on inflation-weary American consumers compared to the Chinese. A totalitarian state has a much greater leeway curtailing freedoms as it does, in alleviating economic pain than America. China's Covid-19's severe lockdowns come to mind.

After Trump blinked, panicked by the volatility of the bond market, suspending his reciprocal tariffs for 90 days (except those for China), he had to save face with his usual infantile bravado, "...countries will line up to 'kiss my ass' just dying to negotiate. China wants a deal; it just doesn't know how to go about it."

Not true, said Victor Gao, a former translator close to Deng Xiaoping in his interview with Cathy Newman, a journalist. With America composing 15 percent of its exports, can it afford not to negotiate?

Gao's retort: "China is fully prepared to fight to the very end because the world is big enough that the United States is not the totality of the market... China has been here for 5,000 years... and we expect to survive for another 5,000 years."

The two biggest economies with the two biggest egos may yet let the problem fester driving the world deep into a recession. The world may survive, but at what cost. Meanwhile, Trump and Xi Jinping will continue their pissing contest.

Pataasan ng ihi!

EDSA 1986 was a perfect political storm, a rare convergence of adverse dynamics that altered the Philippine system of governance. But thirty-nine years after that phenomenon, we find ourselves wondering if another political storm is brewing. The Deegong's March 28 birthday celebrations, that unprecedented nationwide and worldwide OFW-driven display of affection for the Deegong and protests against this government's cavalier treatment of a beloved ex-president — still unproven guilty in the courts of law — has caused added volatility to the midterm election season; notwithstanding the already divisive series of legislative hearings and the inquisition of the vice president leading towards her impeachment.

Are we on a crescendo towards a reprisal of EDSA1986? This pivotal moment in Philippine history was an aggressive non-violent yet profound articulation of the Filipino's demands: restore a democratic government after years of Marcos' martial law and authoritarian rule; instigate reforms that would address social inequalities, freeing us from the shackles of stark poverty and injustice; establish a system of transparent governance ending corruption in government and the looting of public funds practiced to perfection by the dictator's cronies; and empower civil society and grassroots movements that spearheaded the revolution through mass mobilization, peaceful protests and collective appeals for justice and the rule of law.

Broken promises: Where are we now?

Today, Marcos is back! Not his ghost — but his progeny and the underlying iniquities we booted out the father for. In retrospect, EDSA 1986, perhaps unwittingly by our euphoria, planted the seeds for its own destruction. We have not heeded George Santayana's dictum and thus "...we are condemned to repeat it."

Today, in lieu of the "conjugal dictatorship," we have a "triumvirate of malevolence," intact with their allies in the highest echelons of government, elected and unelected, that have been controlling the levers of power resulting in the very distortions EDSA 1986 was supposed to delete.

To understand better those developments, last week's column was a study in contrast between the 1983 politico-economic environment prior to the 1986 EDSA People Power Revolution and current 2025 events, discerning parallelisms that could induce a similar uprising. Four similarities were described: the country as a seething economic and political cauldron; human rights violations and the suppression of dissent and protest by the regime; the crucial role of the military and religious components; and the dramatis personae involved. All these needing a spark to erupt in a political upheaval.

Flawed principal actors and a different scenario

As preconditions for a revolution or a semblance of what transpired in EDSA in 1986, three of these factors could be present. The fourth however is debatable — the personalities involved. Although both periods were led by the country's presidents, Ferdinand, the father, in 1983 and Bongbong, the son, in 2025, Ninoy the assassinated martyr in 1983 by any stretch of the imagination cannot be comparable to the Deegong currently exiled in The Hague. Ninoy was killed while the Deegong is a confessed killer.

BBM wrote a different script; unlike Ninoy's, there was no assassination at the airport tarmac — just a forced rendition and exile to The Hague. There is no one equivalent to Cory, the aggrieved widow, and the reluctant housewife-leader of the long-oppressed citizenry who symbolized the restoration of democracy and the fight against authoritarianism; and emerged as a unifying figure representing the people's desire for change, transparency, and democratic governance.

The wives and consorts of the Deegong to be fair are good women but possess no inclinations for national politics. VP Sara, no resemblance to Cory, could be an inadequate understudy. Her popularity has gone up, but she carries too much political baggage. She was impeached. There is no Cardinal Sin to summon the people to EDSA. The 67-year-old Luis Antonio Cardinal Tagle, slated to be in line for the papacy, would be more comfortable shepherding the souls of his fellowmen. His politics is that of the afterlife.

Bro. Eduardo Manalo, executive head of the Iglesia ni Cristo, could play a part rousing millions of followers as evidenced by the recent National Rally for Peace. And they have shown sympathy for the Deegong's plight of late. The charlatan self-proclaimed appointed son of God, Apollo Quiboloy, is currently behind bars, awaiting possible extradition to the US and trailing poorly in his bid for a Senate seat.

There is no charismatic Gen. Fidel Ramos to inspire the uniformed sector although there are former military leaders now in local government. One of those is the 64-year-old mayor of Baguio City, former PNP general Benjamin "Benjie" Magalong, who seems to speak the right language.

We may not need another EDSA 1986 but...

The concluding remarks of my column last week was in fact a challenge to us: "Are the elements for a revolution valid? We the people — not necessarily pro-Marcos or pro-Duterte who have weakened each other — must control this narrative. Then act we must!"

Controlling the narrative is an imperative suggesting that we need to initiate drastic changes in our system of governance. The people in power today are the same old tired faces waiting to be replaced by another set of tired old faces, ensconced in power too long advancing the agenda of their political dynasties allied with the oligarchy. As baby steps, using the legitimate methods for changes in government, we start with the midterm elections.

I refer to Franklin Drilon's pronouncements. "The best evidence of our political system's desperate bankruptcy is the proliferation of actors, actresses and comedians dominating our legislative and executive branches, including the local government units. The enactment of laws and their implementation are now being entrusted to some people who never studied law or public administration."

He named names — the buffoons, the corrupt and incompetents vying for power. He knows whereof he speaks. He was a Senate president and went through executive positions in the bureaucracy from labor secretary to executive secretary in Malacañang.

John Raña, a political technocrat came up with a simple system, ".. a 'multiple choice' approach: first, eliminate the candidates who fail to meet basic standards of accountability and competence and then select the best among the remaining options. (Those out): 1) candidates tainted by the PDAF scam; 2) recycled politicians with poor performance records; finally, 3) I will not vote for individuals who run for office solely on the strength of their popularity, without a clear and substantive agenda."

Serious voters should educate themselves and dig for qualifications and relevant experience in lawmaking, legislative agenda and advocacy. This columnist's particular bias is for candidates who may also opt for the abolition of political dynasties and a shift to a parliamentary form of government.

We need to use our votes to install more responsive people in public service. Failing this, then perhaps we, the people, may need to up the ante by other means: coalition building by the those that aren't pro-Marcos or pro-Duterte towards a more drastic but legitimate methods we used prior to EDSA 1986 — civil disobedience — a non-violent nationwide sustained protests in the streets. We did this as the parliament of the streets.

We can do this again!

THOSE who love him assert it was a spontaneous expression of solidarity. Those who despise him dismiss it as maudlin, corny and staged-managed. March 28 was the Deegong's 80th birthday, a venerable age worth celebrating, but for a besieged former president banished from his homeland, the pathos was devastating. As expected, a polarized people interpreted this day according to their best lights and from where they sit. But how does an ordinary Filipino with no inclination toward local politics or even a foreign observer infer from hundreds of images from countless Philippine cities and hundreds more from foreign lands of thousands greeting him a happy birthday. Signs of "We Love you Tatay Digong," "We await your return" were raised from Abu Dhabi to Oslo, to New York to Antarctica; to General Santos, to Davao City, to Bohol; to the seven continents and even to a pocket of Pinoys somewhere in China. This was OFW-driven — the Deegong's own, those in the fringes and like him, exiles from the land they love.

Pundits on both sides of the aisle now take sides; the pro-Duterte predicting a people power movement leading towards a revolution, echoing that of 1986. The pro-Marcos opine that this is a flash in the pan, an emotional response to the rendition to the Hague of the former president-criminal and therefore not sustainable. Let's wait for the circus of the midterm elections and the evidence from witnesses pouring in from the trial on the "crimes against humanity," they proclaim.

Similarities/dissimilarities 1983 vis-a vis 2025

I took the liberty of communicating with many of those participants of the events leading towards EDSA 1986, gathering their inputs during those times compared to those of today. Paul D, a Davaoeño political technocrat and historian, framed the current events in a timeline analogous to 1983 when Ninoy Aquino was assassinated on the tarmac coming down from a plane from Taiwan on his way back from exile during Marcos the father's watch. Not that Ninoy's assassination is equivalent to the Deegong's forced rendition directly from a commercial plane from Hong Kong to a private plane to the Hague; this time abetted by Marcos, the son. The eerie circumstances may be akin to déjà vu. But not quite. With the Marcos DNA clearly imprinted, we mark this as a point of departure for today's column.

Dramatis personae

John Raña, another political technocrat, opines that "history has a way of repeating itself, and the events leading to EDSA 1 in 1986 mirror many aspects of the political climate." Raña juxtaposed this historical perspective with both personalities as martyrs; Ninoy in 1983 and the Deegong in 2025.

Ninoy's martyrdom in 1983 is perhaps too much of a hyperbole to label the Deegong's circumstance similarly. The former was an ambitious tradpol who sensed a dictator's impending demise handing him an opportunity to negotiate a modus vivendi for the country — fearful of the ascendancy to power of the rival Imelda-Ver-Cojuangco triumvirate.

Deegong on the other hand is accused of crimes against humanity for which the ICC issued an arrest warrant against him and he must face trial at The Hague. Not a martyr in my books. But the method of his rendition and the anomalous participation of a complicit bureaucracy speaks nonetheless of the cowardly act of BBM. His trial abroad is justified because justice in the Philippines is skewed towards the mighty and the powerful; and the Deegong with allies ensconced in the highest echelons still possess the residual effects of power and influence with the capability of distorting the process.

Seething cauldron

Raña's and Paul D's second element as preconditions for an uprising or a revolution was that both periods saw massive corruption and looting of government coffers, economic decline and the perversion of the rule of law. The elder Marcos introduced "cronyism" and "kleptocracy" to the political lexicon and their gross mismanagement perpetrated a debt crisis and bankruptcy of the government leading to hard currency and capital flight.

BBM, aided by relatives elected and unelected, likewise perpetrated massive looting of funds through the budget process and is now poised to extend his grasp on power by perverting the election process with ayuda. Compared to 1983, 2025 is depravity of a lesser magnitude — but unconscionable nonetheless.

Dissent and protests

The third element refers to the suppression of dissent. In 1983, Macoy muzzled the press, allowing the publication only of newspapers controlled by cronies, disseminating his version of truth. The political opposition, resorting to massive protests in the "parliament of the streets," were perfunctorily curtailed, their leaders incarcerated.

In 2025, in this era of internet and social media, the regime's method of press and media repression began with the congressional committee hearings against the mostly pro-Duterte vloggers and podcasters labeling them as "tsismis disseminators" and producers of "fake news" — shaming the leading ones to tears. The brazen minions of the House Speaker during the infamous VP Sara hearing were the same bullies conducting this inquisition.

Military and religious components

The fourth element provided by Harvard-trained retired colonel Alejandro "Babes" Flores is the military's role. In 1983, the Reform the Armed Forces (RAM) movement played a critical role with the defense secretary Juan Ponce Enrile as its patron. A coup d'etat was the primary intention. But it was bound to fail without the participation of the fifth element.

And therein lies the importance of the religious sector headed by Cardinal Sin of the Catholic hierarchy. The people were summoned to EDSA to protect the breakaway forces led by the much respected and charismatic Gen. Fidel Ramos. They came in droves unfazed by the battle tanks of Gen. Fabian Ver, the Marcos berdugo. This would not have happened were it not for the seething anger against the decades-long oppression by the dictatorship and the people's patience reaching its breaking point.

Hovering over these events was a figure that would stamp its legitimacy on the EDSA People Power 1986 — the housewife Cory, the widow of the slain martyr.

The military and police components today are similarly polarized. As to the segments of the civilian population, Marcos has retained the loyalty of the Ilocanos in the North where their political dynasty and its tentacles reign supreme. And he may have the loyalty of the oligarchy and the elite. But these are opportunists with their fealty, transitory. And the Americans as usual will stand and watch as the weathervane perpetually points to their self-interest. China's position on all these developments is irrelevant. Its bromance with Duterte has long lost its luster with EDCA bases and the missiles now in place.

Duterte's fledgling dynasty exists only in Davao and his sons do not inspire. The one true heir to his legacy, VP Sara, may be impeached over her indiscretions on her own anomalies but could still claim fidelity from Davaoeños and the Muslims in Mindanao.

The Tagalogs, the Bicolanos, the Visayans may not be as responsive. Thus, Colonel Babes' pronouncement that "demographics may spell the difference."

Are the elements for a revolution valid? We the people — not necessarily pro-Marcos or pro-Duterte who have weakened each other — must control this narrative.

Then act we must!