FOR the continued dismantling of the Duterte political structures, discussed in last week's column, it must begin and end in Davao. This dynasty was midwifed incongruously by President Cory Aquino upon the appointment of its patriarch, Rodrigo Duterte, as OIC vice mayor in 1986. Over the next three decades, his genius, charisma, brutal iron will and organizational skills ran roughshod over his political rivals and erstwhile allies awaiting the maturation of his children now installed in powerful elected positions, most prominent of which is Vice President Sara, the presidential heiress-apparent.

The year 1986 saw the end of the Marcos martial law regime, an era marked by suppression of dissent, the rise of cronyism and bureaucrat capitalism that had a stranglehold on the economy, mounting impunity, and the abrogation of the rule of law. The repression of democracy allowed the extreme left to create in Davao a laboratory for the seeds of communist ideology to propagate along with its deadly practices. Oldtimers still remember "Nicaragdao," the poor barangay in Davao, which was a breeding ground for the NPA and the almost daily spectacle of policemen killed by the "sparrow units" and left in the streets to be seen by the community as a warning; and the "salvaging" of criminals and the innocents alike. The soaring crime rate was driven not so much by ideology but by the influx of illegal drugs. These were the conditions obtained when the Deegong appeared in the political scene, having won as mayor in 1988 — a study in perfect timing.

Post-EDSA 1986

Cory's administration tried dismantling the Marcos martial law structures but sadly, only the façade and language and its trappings were altered. Superimposing it with her concept of democracy — however elitist, substituting Marcos cronies with her "Kamag-anak Inc.," the remnants, the elements and the mindset of martial law prevailed.

This was well understood by the Deegong. With an iron fist, he adopted the communist and extreme left formula for discipline and control, but with a twist — cloaking it with motherhood statements of democracy and his version of the rule of law, including his own "death squad" — the DDS — later absurdly renamed the Duterte Diehard Supporters. And this recipe was applied to rid the city of drug lords and pushers and drug-related crimes.

In the four decades post-Cory, the Deegong hammered a coalition of the far left to the right of the political spectrum with the grudging consent of Davao's elite, propelling him to power. And he delivered! His solution, which has gained a modicum of success, locally labeled "Tok-tok Hangyo," or Tokhang for short, failed in its national stage version when he was President ("Dismantling the Duterte political structures," The Manila Times, Oct.10, 2024).

Reinvigorating an old warrior

Several congressional hearings "in aid of legislation," starting with the bumbling quad committee of the lower house upon the behest of Speaker Martin and Malacañang, were conducted not only to pin the EJK and human rights abuses on the Deegong but to degrade VP Sara's possible presidential run in 2028.

In the subsequent Senate blue ribbon committee hearings, the EJK proceedings fell short and backfired and instead exposed the incompetence of the inquisitors. The senators played right into the genius of the man, regaining his waning popularity and reinforcing his status as a "strong man with political will." This could spell a great advantage to the Deegong, fortifying his comeback to Davao as a mayoral candidate against another budding political dynasty — the Nograleses.

Boy Nograles' progeny

The Duterte political narrative is incomplete without the Nograleses. The family's own patriarch, "Boy Nogie," was himself a character writ large. A scion of Davao's old families. They were the landed elite who, at the founding of the city, were its leading lights, in contrast to the transplanted Duterte clan — the outsiders. Urbanization and the influx of the pre-war innovative Japanese and the hardworking and entrepreneurial Chinese, particularly from China's Fujian province and the carpetbaggers, changed drastically its demographic, cultural and social profile. The children of the elite were enrolled in local schools but were sent abroad or to the nation's capital to finish their education, coming back to the city to reclaim what to them was originally their entitlement.

Boy Nogie was a better version of these entitled and a rival for the city's leadership. But his local political organization never could compete successfully with the Deegong's mass base as his milieu was the national political scene, having reached his pinnacle as the powerful speaker of the House. His dream to head the city as mayor collided with that of the Deegong's. And he lost — three times. But the biggest transgression of that rivalry was the victor humiliating his rival publicly and intensely — proverbially kicking the man when he was down. Today, Boy Nogie's progeny, the siblings Karlo and Migs, have come of age and will contest the iron grip of the Dutertes.

Impending showdown

The Nograleses are not without their detractors. I will quote from an editorial ("Optic Politics," Oct. 8, 2024):

"Karlo Nograles' decision to run against the Dutertes in Davao City raises serious questions not only about his judgment but also about the deep-rooted values that underpin political survival and trust in the Philippines. In a political culture where personal loyalty and a sense of utang na loob (debt of gratitude) are sacrosanct, Nograles' candidacy represents a flagrant betrayal of these foundational values.

"Nograles, once a close ally of former President Rodrigo Duterte, benefited immensely from his connection to the Dutertes. As Cabinet Secretary under Duterte, he was vaulted from relative political obscurity to a position of influence and power. This was not just a strategic political appointment; it was a personal investment by the Dutertes in Nograles, a native Davaoeño, to align him with their longstanding political machinery."

This editorial was very harsh on Karlo's succumbing to the enticements of the BBM/Liza/Martin trio to run against the Dutertes. This shows unfamiliarity with the Duterte-Nograles saga. Davaoeños, particularly among the elites and old families of Davao, have long memories, and they will not forget the public humiliation inflicted by the Deegong on one of their own. No amount of inducement by the Deegong on Karlo — cabinet posts and sinecures — can alleviate the insults hurled upon the father.

Many of the political cognoscenti understood only too well the Deegong's moves as this earlier co-optation of Karlo inhibited the old families and the Davao elite from moving against Duterte's hold in Davao politics. But today, the Deegong's male heirs are no match in many metrics against Boy Nogie's issue — Karlo and Migs. The Davao old families and the elite, few as they are, have enough clout and influence to meet head-on the Duterte dynasty.

"Utang na loob," as proffered by the Optic editorial, is a convoluted Filipino value, the bane of good governance and the driving force behind Philippine patronage politics. Our political leaders have long been experts at perverting this Filipino trait as a corrupting tool to the Filipino masses.

Through this open challenge to the Duterte dynasty, Karlo and Migs — Boy Nogie's bloodline — will have to avenge their father's humiliation.

THE whole Marcos bureaucracy has now descended upon the Dutertes, worse than Severe Tropical Storm Kristine (Trami) that ravaged the countryside. Mainstream media are inundated by various Senate and House hearings that started several months back. The "pasakalye," or opening gambit, was Marcos allowing the investigations by the International Criminal Court (ICC) on the core initiatives of the Deegong administration, a vital part of Duterte's legacy, arresting the country's slide into a narco-state. Marcos' acts presaged the breakup of the UniTeam that propelled BBM to the presidency. These harsh methods were applied successfully in Davao, where he was mayor for almost three decades.

True, he has gotten rid of illegal drugs and drug lords and made the city crime-free and relatively peaceful — analogous to the proverbial stillness of the graveyard. But for the Davaoeños, who suffered all types of violence during the dark days of the martial law regime and the leftist and communist insurgency, making Davao its laboratory — it was worth the blood of evil men. We were tolerant. But the Deegong's formula failed when he translated his homegrown solution into the national stage when he became president and instituted the "tok-tok hangyo" or "tokhang" initiative — a house-to-house campaign against illegal drugs, resulting in deadly collateral damage, the reprehensible extra-judicial killings (EJKs) currently under ICC investigation. BBM's seeming cooperation and tacit blessing for the ICC prompted the Duterte clan — particularly the Duterte boys — to clamor for BBM to step down from Malacañang. But Duterte's accusation of BBM being an addict himself was unacceptable, particularly to the first lady — the last straw that broke the camel's back. So today, the battlelines are drawn between two political dynasties ("Clash of dynasties," The Manila Times, March 4, 2024) and the control of power by 2025 and beyond.

Senate-House hearings

If one tunes in on TV today, YouTube and social media, a Filipino teleserye is on stream, rivaling those of any on Netflix. It started with the innocuous hearing on the alleged Chinese sleeper agent, Mayor Alice Guo, POGO and the proliferation of illegal drugs that were later linked to the Duterte administration — his people in the Bureau of Customs, police, and other government bureaucracy — and implicating even his son, Congressman Pulong. But the House, controlled by the speaker, Martin Romualdez, backed by the powerful first lady, Liza ("The woman DDS love to hate," TMT, Oct. 2, 2024), upped the ante, dragging in VP Sara, Martin's bete noire and rival for the 2028 presidency. The teleserye heightened with the roasting of VP Sara on her presumed alleged anomalies during the budget hearings. Sara didn't have a chance, with barely a handful of congressional allies against the minions of Romualdez. This was expanded to an inquisition-like ad-hoc structure of four committees on dangerous drugs, public order and safety, human rights and public accounts, consolidated into a single incongruously named quad committee, akin to the Inquisition of old, presided over by a set of Grand Inquisitors. And these hearings, purportedly "in aid of legislation," are clearly ordained to burn the father at the stake and implicate the daughter for the killings and transgressions of the past.

The beleaguered Sara, with no recourse, obliged her inquisitors with her outrageous two-hour rant on media, deflecting temporarily, it seems, accusations of her alleged anomalies during the budget hearing — which some columnists and allies of the BBM-Liza-Martin tandem described as a "meltdown." But was it?

Method to her madness

VP Sara may have learned a thing or two from her father. One is the propensity to change the face of the issue. In his time, the Deegong often did this with his long peroration and press conferences as diversionary tactics deflecting attention from controversies with indelicate claims of the length and potency of his manhood. Sara, with more finesse, has learned her lessons well from the master with her frontal criticism of BBM as "one who doesn't know how to be president," giving his administration a rating of 1 — on a scale of 10. And to add color to her language, she threatened "to dig up the Marcos cadaver from the Libingan Ng Mga Bayani and throw the same to the West Philippine Sea." Gross, yet effective in grabbing control of the narrative. Indeed, there is a method to her madness! Thus, her meltdown in some ways was intentional, not far from the image portrayed of Malacañang's "polvoronic couple," snorting cocaine during their parties or whatever illegal drugs BBM was handed and pocketed in full view of cameras during one of Malacañang's public gatherings.

End game

But despite these deflections and temporary respite, the Marcoses, with Martin and Liza, are clearly in control and on track to wreak havoc on the remnants of the Duterte political structure. Quiboloy, the religious charlatan, an accused pedophile and the partner of the Deegong, has been practically neutered and could suffer through the long process of the Marcos-controlled justice system. Failing that, there is the likelihood of a US extradition. And their mouthpiece and propaganda machine, the SMNI, is now voiceless and castrated.

The quad hearings and the sustained crucifixion of the Dutertes and cohorts will continue to erode Sara's popularity — the remaining viable Duterte who, like Imee Marcos, her erstwhile ally, are the true replicas of their fathers, Macoy and the Deegong. The planned impeachment of Sara by the lower house at this point will no longer hold traction as the Senate will now hunker down into electing old and tired names who, by the very nature of our dysfunctional politics, will produce the next "presidentiables" to compete with Martin and Sara.

In this coming 2025 senatorial fight, the Deegong's team is being decimated, with Bong Go, the one true believer, left vying for one of the slots. Turncoat Tolentino is now with the Marcos camp, a long shot in winning his post back; Imee is neither here nor there, and Senator Bato may lose his seat and be impaled in the ICC-EJK investigations. The rest are also-rans with Quiboloy in the slate, hoping a win as senator will insulate him from the justice system — just like Jinggoy Estrada and Bong Revilla, who were imprisoned yet have gone scot-free.

So, the old, tired names will be back. Our election system and culture give premium to popular personalities, actors, influencers, and branded names with tons of cash, either legitimately or illegally acquired. We may find under the Marcos camp the re-electionists — Pia Cayetano, Lito Lapid, Bong Revilla and Imee Marcos, who repudiated her brother's team, and old names, Ping Lacson, Manny Pacquiao, Tito Sotto and Camille Villar, substituting for Mommy Cynthia. Same old, same old!

In this coming election, the triumvirate is in control. And in dismantling the Duterte structure, their Davao base is imperative. Here, the Marcoses and Martin Romualdez have initiated a coup of sorts, letting loose a budding dynasty — the scion of that much-vilified cousin and erstwhile ally of the Deegong turned mortal enemy, former speaker Prospero "Boy" Nograles, now deceased. Former Duterte Cabinet member Karlo and sister lawyer Migs, a party-list representative, will contest in a mano-a-mano the sons of the Deegong.

To be continued next week

Third of a series

IMEE did the unexpected. She opted out of BBM's administration alliance senatorial lineup. To refresh our memories, with former president GMA, Imee, the chief strategist, conceptualized the 2022 UniTeam, propelling BBM and Sara to victory. Imee sold the idea to former president Duterte, who was not keen on having his daughter run as BBM's vice president. The Deegong wanted Sara to run for president and confront BBM "mano-a-mano." The headstrong daughter Sara prevailed. Thus, was forged the strong sisterhood of Imee and Sara.

The UniTeam was an alliance of two political dynasties. "One from the old, discredited dynasty from the North out to regain its preeminence established by its patriarch half a century ago when Ferdinand Sr. sought to restructure Philippine society through his martial law regime. They were booted out 38 years ago by the now defunct dynasty that failed to sustain its hold on power but gave birth serendipitously to the current dynasty from the South — the Dutertes — (starting from) when Cory Aquino appointed the Deegong to the lowly post of Davao City OIC vice mayor


The Cojuangco-Aquino dynasty had no sons and daughters in positions of power, unlike the Marcos and Duterte clans. These families understand only too well the path to dominance and what it takes to get there — the sheer determination to accumulate raw power, wealth and pelf and the distribution of largesse to its allies, blind loyalty only to its own, and destruction of its rivals and perceived enemies." ("Clash of dynasties," The Manila Times, March 6, 2024)

This was perhaps very clear to Imee, that the path to rehabilitating her father's image was through an alliance with the Dutertes through Sara. But this partnership, by its very nature, was ephemeral at best. Imee's vision may have been for the two forces from the North and South to co-exist politically. But it was not to be.

Antecedents

The UniTeam's break-up weighed heavily on Imee as she is now caught in the middle — between a rock and a hard place — between the Marcos and Duterte dynasties' fight for political dominance in the coming years, perhaps even generations. But the background to this is a compelling study in internal family dynamics.

In a family steeped in Filipino tradition, we follow the concept of primogeniture — the oldest child has preeminence over the younger siblings; Imee, the oldest, is by rights the custodian of the family legacy. The Marcos literature is steeped in BBM, the spoiled one being the only male as Imelda's favorite. Imee was the father's. But more importantly, earlier in their youthful years, Imee displayed the brains and the street smarts Macoy was predisposed to. The female version of Ferdinand Sr. And the hard-headedness as shown when she defied mother Imelda on her dalliance with Tommy Manotoc (divorced from Au-au Pijuan, though Dominican Republic divorces are unrecognized in the Philippines).

'Maid in Malacañang'

This film, produced by Imee, is a fictional tale of the last three days in Malacañang during the EDSA People's Power Revolution of 1986. This provided the backdrop of the relationship of the siblings, "Ate" Imee and "Ading" BBM. Bongbong was depicted as the weak, groveling son seeking the approbation of a beleaguered father, while Imee was shown as the stronger older sister who held the family together before their exile. In a critique of the movie, Direk Cirilo has this to say: "...the movie and its depiction of BBM [was] the worst negative ad campaign against the president-elect, but the most honest opinion of BBM as a man."

This description did not sit well with BBM's spouse Liza — a fiercely protective mother hen — perhaps one of the many incidents that widened the rift between the sisters-in-law, a common occurrence in many family disputes.

Imee and Liza

These two strong-willed, powerful women in-laws could have exacerbated the rift between the two political dynasties. Imee's soul-sister Sara became anathema to Liza in that famous "bangag" incident ("Clash of dynasties," TMT, March 6, 2024). And Imee's continued loyalty to Sara is unacceptable to the influential Malacañang occupant, Liza. Despite the public display of family unity, Imee was persona non grata to Liza's Malacañang. If rumors are to be believed, not one of Imee's recommendations for a sinecure for her allies passed Liza's scrutiny. They never reached BBM's desk for approval and appointment. Again, if rumors are to be believed.

Senatorial fight in 2025

If one examines BBM's senatorial lineup, one sees an anthology of traditional politicians (trapos), tired old ex-senators longing for a comeback, questionable senators with records of corruption but sanitized with electable branded names, dregs and discards of old Marcos-Duterte alliance. Strangely, with the kind of party politics existing in the country today, to be included in the administration line-up with the huge logistics and presidential patronage, the chance of winning a seat is a real possibility. Imee's decision to go independent is puzzling at best.

An enigma, Imee was proselytizing about "a path and principles of my father," declaring, "... as his eldest, I choose to stand free and firm, like him, in believing that there should be no allegiance but to the Filipino people... It is never easy to stand alone in campaigns and politics... But that is the legacy my father left me, the legacy of 'Apo Lakay'... I chose to stand alone so that my 'adding' (sibling) would no longer be put in a difficult position, and my true friends won't hesitate. I choose to remain free and loyal — not to any group but to every Filipino." And in a very personal but maudlin way... "Thirty-five years ago, I made a promise to honor his life's work by building on this foundation. In some way, I hope that I have made you proud, Dad. We miss you every day."

Translation

I am not privy to the senator's thought process and, therefore, am unable to fathom her statements. But my experience with politicians and years of divining their actuations allow me the aptitude to translate her elegant, but to many incoherent, peroration.

Imee's friendship with Sara is true and deep. Upon crafting the UniTeam in 2022, there must have been an unspoken arrangement for Sara's turn at the presidency in 2028. It was a fair quid pro quo that may not have met the ambitions of the other dramatis personae. For one, the Marcos family must have felt that six years of BBM's term was not enough to rehabilitate Macoy's image or resurrect his legacy. None among them can take the cudgels after BBM. Liza's children are as yet unripe. Enter, therefore, the billionaire and self-proclaimed surrogate, House Speaker Martin Romualdez, out to pervert the Constitution with a revision favoring his position under a parliamentary system of government — as prime minister. An abomination to Senator Imee.

Imee, caught between her friendship with Sara and sympathy for the Dutertes and loyalty to BBM, may have no other recourse but to tread a middle path — not with her brother's, Martin's, and Liza's party, not with the Deegong's, but to go it alone as an independent. A heroic stand, a political suicide or simply what the old Filipinos call — amor propio!

First of a series

MASS and social media have recently been inundated by a slew of news, "tsismis" and fake news involving Filipino women of diverse status, political color, different persuasions and atypical motivations. But these women have several distinctive traits in common. The first cluster is strong-willed and wields political influence either by fiat as occupying a singularly powerful elective post, as in Vice President Sara Duterte, or the first lady Liza Araneta-Marcos, unelected, nonetheless in a position of vast influence and potential for manipulation by virtue of being married to a perceived weak spouse. Some of these women maneuver around the periphery of power and are themselves powerful but refuse to brandish the same, like Sen. Imee Marcos, in whom many among those who lived and survived the martial law regime of the dictator see the traits of the father. For bad or good, those nostalgic for the old regime regret the Filipino voter's choice of the wrong Marcos. And then there are women who have been unseated from power through the whims of dysfunctional government institutions like the fugitive and suspected Chinese sleeper agent Mayor Alice Guo of Bamban, Tarlac.

The other category is women who, by their notoriety and their strategic personal relations, took advantage of their 15 minutes of fame, attempting to tear to shreds the reputations of the powerful and the mighty as in the disgruntled paramour revealing juicy tidbits about her former Davao politico-businessman lover who has long been removed from power and tale-telling distasteful exposés about the Malacañang "polvoron"-snorting crowd. And these anecdotes are given credence through female internet personalities who rule social media, providing pulpits through their YouTube video blogs. These "Marites" with thousands of followers lap up any scraps of gossip thrown their way, propelling the same to go viral. This is gossip in the fringes providing entertainment to the inane. These women of the second cluster are not the subjects of this column ("The spy and the paramour," The Manila Times, Aug. 14, 2024).

Sara

The vice president appeared before the House Committee on Appropriations hearings recently to do two simple things: defend the budget of the Office of the Vice President (OVP) and respond to queries on the expenditures of the Department of Education from which she recently resigned — in disgust. She did neither, telegraphing instead to the honorable members of the budget committee what she really thought of them.

What came out in the hearing was that she disbursed her confidential fund of P125 million in just 11 days, P35 million on the purchase of supplies and P3.5 million for chairs, tables and computers; another P40 million for the provision of medical and food aid. On top of these, she has caused the publication of a children's book, which she purportedly authored to the tune of P10 million for 200,000 copies — while she was education secretary.

The catch here is that all these are disallowed by the Commission on Audit (CoA). And the book was reportedly plagiarized from a US author and used by Sara as campaign material. It is not so much the amounts spent but her attitude when asked to explain and her demeanor at the hearings showing her disdain for her inquisitors.

Let me quote one of her critics: "Sara Duterte, I believe, is sick of a narcissistic personality disorder, as others in her family are. When she went to the House (August 27 budget hearing), she knew it would put her to shame. Her game plan fits the narcissist's playbook to a T: she will control the interpellations so that she can dodge the most threatening questions. Once in control of the process, she can throw squid tactics so as to transfer blame..." (Antonio J. Montalvan 2nd, Vera Files).

Sara's behavior by any standard was appalling, especially for one who has been installed by millions of Filipinos to the second highest office of the land. On the other hand, she had compelling reasons to behave that way as the House of Representatives was enemy territory, bastion of the allies of the Marcos dynasty. Sara was reacting to the despicable behavior of a female committee member, "Madame Chair" Stella Luz Quimbo, a former lowly academic who is herself now being roasted on social media for her tasteless display of very expensive branded luxury watches and bags. A side story to the hearings yet relevant. The hearings are ostensibly structured to scrutinize all branches of government to ensure public monies are spent for the public good. Incongruently, corruption by an inquisitor has gone viral.

But this modern-day Spanish Inquisition of an inquiry was obviously designed to politically crucify Sara, being the most capable Duterte to dislodge the Marcoses from their dynastical proclivities. And the virtual Torquemada pulls the strings unseen from behind — the self-proclaimed heir to the Marcos dynasty, Martin Romualdez. A summary of three articles from The Manila Times is excerpted to put things in proper perspective. ("Clash of dynasties," "The self-appointed heir, heiress," "We are being played," TMT, March 6 and 13; and April 27.)

A capricious pact

Since the dissolution of the "UniTeam" of the Marcos-Duterte political dynasties forged in 2022, Sara, who could have won the presidency but gave way to BBM as his VP and with her inclusion in the Marcos administration and promises of prestigious and important positions, assumed the cloak of heiress-apparent. But this tenuous partnership was never meant to last one presidential cycle. The Marcos family, in power for decades and booted out of power and in exile for decades more since 1986, saw the need to rehabilitate the patriarch's image as Philippine dictator during his martial law regime — and continue the Marcos legacy of "Ang Bagong Lipunan." It was obvious that BBM's watch of six- years may not be enough. Former president Duterte foresaw this in 2022 and vehemently objected to naïve daughter Sara running as Marcos' VP — allowing BBM to use the Duterte prestige to propel the Marcoses back to power.

Thus, the break came at an Apollo Quiboloy Maisug prayer rally on Feb. 21, 2024, when the Dutertes clamored for BBM, first lady Liza, and the surrogate heir Speaker Martin Romualdez to step down from their posts, with Deegong describing BBM as "bangag" — a dope addict. While the unthinking male Dutertes were disparaging the Malacañang occupants, Sara was on the sidelines, lending some sort of credence and approbation by her presence and silence. This did not sit well with the first lady.

This was just the start of a series of Pastor Quiboloy-sponsored Philippine-wide "Maisug" prayer rallies that were designed to erode the credibility of the regime. At first, BBM's reaction to the personal slanders was dismissed as the "fentanyl-induced" ravings of the former president. But these persistent assaults echoed by the allies of the Deegong were deemed to be the ultimate in lese majeste. With the tame and weak reaction of the President defending the honor of the family, the first lady Liza stepped in and made her move.

Next week:
The woman DDS love to hate

Last of two parts

LAST week's column ended with a rhetorical question: which political dynasty will dominate Philippine politics post-2028 upon the Marcos-Duterte coalition breakup? This conundrum is tangential to the intent of Pulse Asia, per se, but the data points continue to give out vignettes forming an integral part of this narrative.

Focus will now shift to the comparative analysis of the surveys on President Marcos Jr., former president Duterte and their surrogates; Vice President Sara Duterte, scion of the Duterte clan and House Speaker Martin Romualdez, self-proclaimed heir to the Marcoses — while BBM and Imee's children are politically ripening. These are the two contemporary political dynasties competing for dominance in this coming midterm elections toward the presidential contest that will spell the dominance of either in 2028 or beyond.

Pulse Asia can't reflect the consequences of the clash between BBM and Sara. Their third quarter survey, however, could suggest the same. But to refresh our memories, the actual breakup may have occurred with the surging popularity of VP Sara, buoyed up by the still-popular Duterte, putting the Marcos dynasty in jeopardy. BBM then allowed the International Criminal Court (ICC) to resume the investigation of the Deegong's drug wars and human rights violations — a virtual Damocles sword. When he was president, Duterte cut ties with the ICC, curtailing its ability to pursue an investigation of the extrajudicial killings.

In retaliation, a series of prayer rallies was initiated by a vengeful ex-president, sponsored by Quiboloy, the "Appointed Son of God" who gave Duterte a platform, SMNI, to attack BBM. Excerpts from my column quoted her: "There was no mincing of words. Pastor Apollo Quiboloy, Appointed Son of God (ASOG), on Feb. 21, 2024, called for... President BBM (and first lady Liza) and Speaker Martin Romualdez to step down from your posts. You are no longer worthy to be our trusted leaders. These echoed Davao Mayor 'Baste' Duterte's demands for BBM to resign in a prayer rally in Davao last January 28. And in an expected ad hominem by the Duterte himself, he described BBM as 'basag' (a drug addict)!?" ("Clash of dynasties," TMT, June 3, 2024)

Martin Romualdez — Cardinal Richelieu

Enter the billionaire and ambitious Speaker Martin — more of a Romualdez than a Marcos — who holds a grudge against Quiboloy's SMNI for exposing his P1.8 billion travel allowances and his indiscretions in the lower house, imperiling his presidential ambitions. SMNI's franchise subsequently was suspended — shades of ABS-CBN's gutting by the Deegong during his watch.

But Martin is a character of his own. With his initial moves, using the prestige of the Marcoses, he assumed the role of the Marcos couple's Cardinal Richelieu, serving the family while consolidating his own supremacy at the powerful lower house of Congress — biding his time, manipulating the weak president with perhaps the tentative but tacit acquiescence of the consort. But unlike the French Cardinal, the speaker wanted it all.

In the Pulse Asia survey, mentioned in my column last week, BBM's approval rating collapsed to 53 percent from a high of 84 percent, while Duterte's equivalent rating in his first two quarters in 2016 even went up to 88 percent. But the more relevant figures to ponder upon are those of the surrogates' current trust ratings: VP Sara's was a high of 69 percent while that of Speaker Martin, a dismal 35 percent! To the Marcos heir-apparent, this was unconscionable.

VP Sara's demolition

Thus, the rival heiress' head's ongoing decapitation. It started with Marcos and the House stripping VP Sara of her discretionary funds as education secretary and later the budget of the Office of the Vice President. As I wrote in the same column, "Sara's desire to assume a high-profile role in BBM's Cabinet as secretary of defense was not granted. The education portfolio was a poor substitute. And to add salt to the wound, Sara's VP office was stripped of P500 million and DepEd of P150 million in confidential intelligence funds (CIF).

"Intelligence funds" are nebulous purposed confidential funds originally for the use of surveillance by police and defense agencies for security purposes. The practice of allocating these funds to civilian agencies and favored local government units (LGU) has skirted the guidelines, disbursements and liquidation of the same as they are exempted from the Commission on Audit's (CoA) standard procedures. More often than not, they are unaudited and may be deemed unconstitutional. These lucrative funds have been used anomalously as campaign funds bloating the personal coffers of powerful politicians, mayors/governors and agency heads. BBM's own office (OP) was allocated P4.5 billion — half of the P10.64 billion CIF in the 2024 budget."

It did not help that during the current 2025 congressional budget hearing, the beleaguered Sara's display of belligerence and arrogance, mimicking a now toothless Duterte patron — did not sit well with the committee members. It pissed off both allies and detractors — doubtless to the glee of the speaker's cohorts.

With Richelieu in the saddle, the relentless degrading of Sara and the Dutertes continues. Now in the current hearings of both houses are the exposition of new evidence from Davao prison inmates of the Deegong's alleged elimination of convicted Chinese drug lords. A patchwork of cases and innuendoes stitched in a quilt of old and new are being revived through the grandstanding congressional hearings, not the proper courts; the resuscitation of the Pharmally anomalies of officials around the presidential orbit that could involve the Deegong himself; tying this up with POGO that began to proliferate during the Duterte administration. All these meant to engulf the Dutertes now that the dynasty head was no longer in power.

Richelieu's ascendancy

This brings us to the question of a possible reversal of roles in the political power structure of government. The resident Malacañang couple has recently become vulnerable with the exposé of the use of illegal drugs in "polvoron" parties. ("The spy and the paramour," TMT, Aug. 14, 2024)

The cognoscenti in the highest echelons of government, including the Marites of the social media, have begun to speculate that the first couple's vulnerability plays into the hands of Speaker Martin, who may now morph into a 'Svengali' coming into his own — and holds the power to pursue investigations of 'polvoron' usage and proliferation even in the hallowed halls of Malacañang. The alliance of the speaker and the couple, particularly the powerful consort, may be undergoing some sort of mutation. One cannot help but hazard a guess that we may be confronted with the classical situation of the "tail wagging the dog." Who now controls the levers of power in this government?

Until Pulse Asia frames these questions and injects the same into the consciousness of the Filipinos as part of the process of educating them about their plight — the data points can only reveal nuances where a tale can be woven subject to the biases of those that interpret the same. This column awaits the findings of the research for the third quarter of this year and beyond.

Meanwhile, we assume full responsibility for the conclusions and speculations arrived at from these data points.

Last of two parts

IT has been a month since Ukraine invaded Russia, ostensibly underscoring Putin's inutility and continued humiliation with his allies and, more importantly, his credibility with the Russian people who have been led to believe that the original Russian invasion 30 months ago in February 2022, was a short punitive sortie that Putin promised would end in a few days upon the fall of Kyiv bringing Ukraine to its knees and back in the Russian fold.

Putin's adventure is now in its third year. And the end is not in sight. But Russia now occupies a large swath of land in the Donbas region and those adjoining the Crimea. Russian forces are now entrenched in the eastern part of Ukraine bordering Russia.

Putin sold the fiction to the Russian people that this incursion into Ukraine was upon the demand of the Russian-speaking population of the Donbas, where the local Russian population was allegedly facing persecution and needed protection from the Ukrainian government — dubbing this act as "denazification" of Ukraine.

Antecedents of Russo-Ukraine war

To put things in perspective, although Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, this conflict had been germinating years earlier. This year, 2024, is the 10th anniversary of the Ukraine-Russo conflict. I quote excerpts from my column ("Ukraine war revisited — America speaks with forked tongue," The Manila Times, June 14, 2023).

"Ukraine's invasion by Russia was the sum total of NATO's relentless encroachment over the years that included the CIA-sponsored Euromaidan revolution in 2013 resulting in a regime change in Ukraine, which in turn gave Putin the alibi to annex Ukraine's southern peninsula of Crimea in 2014 and recognize the Russian-sponsored separatist states of Donetsk and Luhansk in the southeast, collectively known as the Donbas region."

Further, the seeds of this conflict were planted during the fall of the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR) during the intervening years of 1989-1992 ("Ukraine: Putin's war — a briefer," TMT, March 9, 2022; and "Ukraine war — heading toward Armageddon," TMT, Aug. 28, 2024).

What was untenable was that upon the dissolution of the USSR, then-Soviet President Mikhail Gorbachev extracted a promise from America and Germany that NATO would not enlarge "one inch eastward" after Gorbachev disbanded the Soviet military alliance (Warsaw Pact). But NATO's later enticement of the old Warsaw Pact countries, particularly Ukraine, into its fold was a negation of that pledge. The entire premise of NATO enlargement to Eastern Europe was a violation of this agreement.

"Just imagine NATO with its short-range ballistic missiles (SRBM) at the borders of Russia. How was it different when Khrushchev in 1962 stationed missiles in Cuba just outside America's borders? Kennedy drew the line then as Putin similarly has drawn the line now. NATO's overture to Ukraine after the USSR's collapse is tantamount to Putin's red line that America and the West have long crossed. America and NATO, in essence, actually provided a casus belli for Putin's acts."

Storyline of Ukraine's Russian invasion

The Aug. 6, 2024, Ukraine invasion of Kursk Oblast brought the war to Russian soil — the first time since WW 2. Although Putin's control of state media on putting the lid on Ukraine's invasion has been almost total, morsels of news trickled down through the heavy censorship. For one, people from hundreds of displaced communities in Kursk and Belgorod were evacuated, and these frightened citizens disseminated their fear to relatives, friends and other citizens in adjoining oblasts. The images of hordes of evacuees on the roads reminiscent of the aftermath of the 1943 Nazi blitzkrieg have gone viral. Suddenly, hostilities could be at every Russian's doorstep, and the realities of bloodshed could become part of their daily lives.

In the summer of 2023, Ukraine conducted a much-awaited counter-offensive to reoccupy Donbas. That failed. It suffered 200,000 casualties, while Russia lost more than three times that much. But "mano-a-mano" with Russia in a war of attrition was a one-sided affair. Comparatively, Russia is the larger combatant with more resources and greater wealth available, a bigger defense industrial base and more warm bodies. Ukraine solely dependent on NATO and the US for its military resources is a no-match. Ukraine was forced to shift back to its current defensive mode.

Russia's subsequent mobilization was a disaster where more than a million of its young men fled the country to avoid conscription. National conscriptions were unpopular with Russian mothers whose sons came back maimed or in caskets, inducing political dissent among the populace, anathema to a closed communist society. Similarly, finding volunteers for Ukraine was challenging where draft dodgers of fighting age fled abroad through Poland and Slovakia — according to the BBC.

The Western press further revealed that Russia outgunned Ukraine on artillery by 20 to one until the US Congress finally approved $60 billion in military aid in April 2024. The best estimates are that it is still outgunned in artillery shells eight to one. But Ukraine has the advantage of advanced NATO weapons technology and better trained and motivated manpower.

Even with these conditions, Russia managed slow, steady, methodical gains across the eastern front with its quantity of firepower and its young cannon fodder. Russian forces are embedded in the oblast of Luhansk with two major cities of Severodonetsk and Lyshansk; Donetsk with the city of Mariupol; Zaporizhzhia and its nuclear power plant and the city of Melitopol. The bloody battle and recent occupation of Bakhmut and Avdiivka, major Ukraine cities, was disastrous for Ukraine. Since the war began, roughly one-third of Ukraine's territory has been in Russian hands.

With war weariness descending on both countries, but with the momentum on the Russian side, Putin, last June 2024, set his own terms for peace, demanding that Ukraine withdraw its forces from the four provinces of Donbas and even those still unoccupied by Russia. Furthermore, it demanded that Crimea, occupied since 2014, be recognized as Russian. And more importantly, it abandoned its desire for membership in NATO and assumed a status of permanent neutrality. Zelenskyy rejected these supercilious conditions.

Hemorrhaging soldiers and weaponry and losing ground since 2023, Zelenskyy and his military leadership decided they needed to wrest the initiative from Putin. Thus, this gamble on a bold attack on the sparsely defended Kursk Oblast. It was a desperate gesture of bravado that could work — if the strategy were to use this occupation of Russian territory as a bargaining chip for an eventual ceasefire and peace treaty. But more importantly Zelenskyy has brought the war's realities to Russian citizens who for long have been deceived by Putin. This has now become a contest between Russian mothers versus Putin. How long will Putin hold on to power amid the babushkas' and Rossiyani's wrath?

Ukraine's lifeblood depends on America and NATO's sustenance. But Putin holds one card he hopes will be dealt with this November. His friend, Trump, is running for the US presidency. Trump has already declared that he will solve the war on day one of his presidency. He will suspend the shipment of war materiel to Zelenskyy.

Little does he know that his friend will lose the presidency. Meanwhile, Armageddon is postponed!