THIS begins a series of columns that will attempt to examine this felon who may be gifted by the American people a second chance at governance. Trump's reincarnation is an international concern as the world's hegemon. The impact of American leadership and their policies on the global political dynamics is incalculable and will alter our lives in so many ways as yet unforeseen.

This column will not pass judgment on America's choices, but with millions of our compatriots now living in that land, we reserve the right to help our kin see their way clear through on our best lights. It is not interference, as we in the Philippines do not vote for America's leadership. But we claim familial moral ascendancy — in consonance with the best dictates of our culture. Like this columnist, we have siblings, relatives, children and grandchildren in America. We are family!

Billionaire and business genius

We start with his character and business acumen. Long before Trump became a convict, he had already shown hints of mental and moral qualities distinctive to his type of leadership — possessed of a criminal mind disposed to diabolical schemes. To the manor born with the proverbial silver spoon in his mouth, he is indeed charismatic but flawed, accumulating a business track record that is less than stellar. In the book "The Making of Donald Trump" (Amazon.com 2016), author David Johnson wrote: "Trump has a long history of illegal practices ... [and] profited, thanks to help from known criminals and mob associate... he positioned himself as a savior, a sort of modern Midas with the ability to step in and turn any project into gold."

He was, in fact, building up a reputation as a con man. He projected his brand narcissistically, attaching his name to his assets and business ventures: Trump hotels, entertainment and casino resorts, four separate enterprises that filed for bankruptcy in 1991, 1992, 2004, 2009 and again in 2014. Trump Steaks launched a line of steaks in 2007 and Trump Vodka in 2006, but all failed. Trump Airlines, which he purchased in 1989, ultimately ceased operations in 1992.

Trump Mortgage, launched in 2006, closed its doors in 2007; Trump Magazine, launched in 2007, closed in 2009; and his Trump University, a for-profit-education scam, faced lawsuits and shut down in 2010.

He was fueled by debt and leveraged the same by bloating his assets for maximum bank collateral but falsifying and minimizing the same to the IRS to avoid taxes. He was adept at manipulating the instruments of capitalism to his ends. After all these bankruptcies and business failures, it was easy to transition from a top-tier businessman to a top-rank politician. America gathered him to its bosom as der Fuhrer.

The presidency

Trump's sudden appearance on the political scene was timely. In his book "American Carnage: On the Front Lines of the Republican Civil War and the Rise of President Trump" (2019, New York Times Bestseller), Tim Alberta wrote: "The 2008 financial crisis brought about an ideological conflict within the Republican Party and the beginnings of a populist mood in the country... During the primary debates for the 2016 election, Trump shattered Republican Party orthodoxy. In response to Barack Obama's presidency, the political right was consumed with racism and ideological zealotry."

In the wake of the total annihilation of his GOP primary rivals and the capture of the Republican Party by his MAGA movement, in his presidency, good but naïve Americans with patriotic intentions were drawn into his circle; thrown in the mix were all sorts of seedy characters — from the disreputable to the criminal-prone, lugging along with them their personal agenda. His successful reality TV show, "The Apprentice," propelled Trump to the consciousness of the TV-hungry American audience, propagating his image as a no-nonsense executive, which was carried over to his "pretend presidency." In the book "Fire and Fury"(Henry Holt & Co., 2018), Michael Wolff wrote: "His (Trump's) was a campaign built to fail, with no intention of actually winning. It only existed as a way to promote his brand on one of the world's biggest stages."

And like his TV show participants, he bullied them all. For those who couldn't take it, he disparaged and insulted publicly like Rex Tillerson, his Secretary of State recruited from the NYC financial sector, who once called him a "f*****g moron." The others either resigned, asked to leave, or were fired ignominiously: Jeff Sessions, attorney general; John Kelly, secretary of homeland security and later White House chief of staff, dragging with them whatever shred of self-respect they could gather. James Mattis, defense secretary, a much decorated American war veteran, was sacked, and his replacement, Mark Esper, was later fired after Trump lost the 2020 election. Kirstjen Nielsen, secretary of homeland security; Ryan Zinke, secretary of the interior; and Wilbur Ross, secretary of commerce, all got the boot. His government was littered with the carcasses of men and women occupying a spectrum from the decent to the inadequate to the criminal.

His entourage was a veritable rogue's gallery. Persons who existed in the fringes of the law acted as his "soldatos and consiglieres," with the Donald acting in his role as the "capo di tutti capi." Steve Bannon, his ideological soulmate; Michael Flynn, his national security adviser, he pardoned after pleading guilty to lying to the FBI. Roger Stone, his longtime associate, was convicted of lying to Congress and witness tampering and later pardoned by Trump. Michael Cohen, his former personal lawyer, pleaded guilty to campaign finance violations and other charges. Cohen was a main witness to Trump's recent criminal conviction on 34 counts. Campaign chairman Paul Manafort, convicted on multiple counts of financial fraud and conspiracy, was later pardoned and is now reportedly back in Trump's 2024 presidential campaign.

Chances of regaining presidency

He will win again because of two things: Trump poisoned the minds not only of his base but many Americans that the system of justice is impaired. Trust in the blindfolded lady justice has waned as she has taken a peek and pronounced that this was a witch hunt all along and Trump is being persecuted — the mantra of MAGA. Accordingly, from the very beginning, the American elite and the "deep state" have decided to go after the Donald, the leader of America's great unwashed — the basket of deplorables — who for so long have been shortchanged by the American system. Trump burst into the scene upending the Republican Party, whipping up the right-wing base, offering them "red meat" by successfully demonizing the Democrats, led by Hillary, who personified the liberal sectors, women's rights groups, immigrants who cost them jobs, Blacks, and even policies of globalization, deregulation and military intervention abroad, and focusing on regaining a "lost America."

Tim Alberta may be correct that "...Trump evoked a lost America, an America of steady jobs, white picket fences and 1950's social attitudes. Crucially, it hinted at a much whiter America."

If Trump succeeds in feeding into this bizarre nostalgia and dredging up the simmering and dormant racism of white America, he will assume the 47th presidency in 2025.

To be continued

GUILTY on all 34 counts! I had not expected this verdict. From an outsider looking in, I expected a judgment similar to O.J. Simpson's, found innocent on reasonable doubt of killing his wife Nicole and her friend Ronald Goldman. Nevertheless, OJ was found liable for "wrongful death" and ordered to pay $33.5 million in damages to Nicole's and Goldman's families. I never could figure out American jurisprudence, declaring one "not guilty" of parricide and murder yet being made to pay for those same killings in a civil case.

In the current trial, I thought that embedded among 12 jurors, a MAGA adherent would succumb to a lame defense injecting "reasonable doubt" against the prosecution's star witness, Cohen, a convicted felon himself — producing a "hung jury." It turned out they were unanimous in finding ex-president Donald Trump a criminal. Apparently, the US justice system works.

But MAGA now avers that the trial was a con job with the 12 tainted jurors all coming from New York "where 96 percent of the electorate vote Democratic, and all suffering from Trump Deranged Syndrome (TDS), thanks to the liberal media" (social media post of a MAGA, Esther Barton). The argument advanced by the MAGA crowd is that "...this was rigged from the very beginning. A biased judge with a case tried in a predominantly Democratic state." Wow, how stupid!

Back in 1995, the public broke down along racial lines where mostly whites were angered by the acquittal while the majority of Black Americans favored OJ's exoneration. In America today, the people are likewise polarized badly. This verdict could affect the November 5 US presidential elections either way.

I watched with fascination this six-week trial, misnomered as simply "US$130,000 hush money" paid to a porn star meant to conceal sexual shenanigans to protect Melania, the wife — a lamely mounted defense strategy. But the American jurors were unanimous in finding Trump guilty of falsifying business records to cover up this extra-marital affair in advance of the 2016 presidential election, which, ironically, he won. Poor Melania, used as an alibi. That is probably the reason why she was never seen inside the New York courtroom supporting a philanderer of a husband.

Now MAGA pooh-poohs this verdict, declaring other politicians have done worse things. Why single out Trump alone? "Stormy Daniels" has an inconsequential impact on the vaunted American concept of democracy and the rule of law. I agree. I would rather that Trump fought first his three other cases now awaiting litigation where America's sense of justice will really be exposed as it has often been smugly portrayed — that American Western Christian values are superior to those of the rest of the world. Now after this buffoon of a felon president had to go down ignominiously on mere transgressions of personal undisciplined animal appetites, the succeeding trials could be anti-climactic. America will be unable to showcase and elevate the conversation and boasts of "their better angels — those traits and admirable aspects of temperament or aspirations toward what is good" (paraphrasing US President Lincoln at his first inaugural).

Trump's other cases

Trump was indicted in August 2023 of a racketeering case (RICO) in Georgia for an alleged scheme to overturn the 2020 presidential elections. Of his original 18 co-defendants, four have already pleaded guilty and reached plea deals with prosecutors. This should have been the first case tried were it not for Trump himself causing delays. Over 60 lawsuits were filed by his allies in an attempt to challenge the results of the 2020 presidential election. These lawsuits were quashed and did not change the outcome of the election, which saw Joe Biden elected as the 46th President of the United States.

In South Florida, the Donald is charged with 40 counts from his mishandling of sensitive government records — an obstruction of justice where all his co-defendants have pleaded not guilty. There is a chance that this indictment will be tossed out by the Trump-appointed Judge Cannon who had this postponed indefinitely.

But the indictment that has greater ramifications on America involves Trump's alleged plot to negate the transfer of power in the 2020 presidential elections. The world was a witness — and entertained by the hordes of MAGA supporters who stormed the Capitol in Washington, D.C., on Jan. 6, 2021, attempting to prevent the session in Congress from counting the Electoral College votes formalizing the victory of president-elect Biden. The attack was unsuccessful in reversing Biden's victory, but Trump's MAGA, some members of the Oath Keepers Militia, and the Proud Boys involved in this criminal act are now imprisoned, and some are awaiting prosecution.

Interestingly, all three cases may not be litigated before the November 5 US presidential elections pending the US Supreme Court ruling on US presidential immunity.

Comparative Philippine scene

And we should really not gloat too much over the Donald's predicament, although we may be forgiven for momentarily engaging in schadenfreude. Trump's travails trump (pun unintended) the equivalent or worse cases in the Philippines. We, too, have felon presidents, but egregiously a sitting senator, a felon found guilty of corruption, direct and indirect bribery and sentenced to eight to 10 to 12 years imprisonment, yet still reports for work at the Senate and sits as an 'honorable member of this august body.'

I must admit to a certain vicarious thrill binge-watching video clips of those late-night comedians, Kimmel, Colbert, Meyers, et al., giving running accounts on Trump's courtroom behavior complete with vulgar-bordering-slapstick, describing his farts and his drooling while napping; and the Keystone cops-like display of canine loyalty by the GOP leadership flying to New York led by the House Speaker all in uniform red ties and dark suits — the Donald's trademark attire.

And I'm a little jealous that a powerful man can be found guilty by his own peers in a trial of only six weeks and 10 hours of deliberations to find him accountable for his misdeeds. In the Philippines, such trials are impossible. We have more serious crimes committed that couldn't reach the trial stage, And if they did, judges, witnesses and litigants would have been long gone — dead or suborned. And the records lost. And sadly, the crimes forgotten, and their progenitors even occupying the seat of power — even becoming president.

Trump winning the presidency

Many of Trump's true believers — and they are countless here in the Philippines — still hold their faith in this felon, advancing the argument that this verdict enhances his image as the tragic figure hounded by the Democrats and the deep state on a never-ending witch-hunt. True enough, the aftermath triggered a fundraising bonanza of $34.8 million in campaign funds.

The next few months leading to the November elections will be America's circus with name-calling, de rigueur among MAGA fanatics, and 'basket of deplorables' arrayed against the TDS and the Bidenistas, champions of a doddering senile ageing president in the absence of well thought out arguments and unheated political conversation. But as in the 2020 US presidential elections, a dangerous predicate is being laid. Trump will win! If he loses, then the election was rigged! Then, the insanity runs full circle.

Or Trump could be America's 47th president!

Last of four parts

MY previous columns, particularly the penultimate part discussing the realignment of Philippine political forces leading toward the midterm elections, reach culmination with this column. Part 4 depicts the conceivable beginnings of the eclipse of the Dutertes, whose rise started way back when the pater familia, out of the ruins of the Marcos dictatorship, a child of the Cory Aquino Yellow Friday Movement in Davao, was propelled eventually to the heights of politics as president of the Philippines in 2016. Now that Duterte has done his part resurrecting the Marcoses, BBM and his camp now proceed to repay Duterte's magnanimity by writing finis to the vainglorious political career of Davao's best contribution to the national political stage.

What is tragic is that this state of affairs was precipitated by hubris, the family male members themselves misjudging the nuances of the uses of power, its abuse, its misuse and even non-use — all straddling the limits and discretion of political ascendancy. As succinctly enunciated in the vernacular, "pana-panahon lang 'yan." Perhaps we all underestimated too the moves of the young Marcos and his powerful consort. They must have learned a thing or two from Makoy the patriarch. And with the conjugal presidency comfortably ensconced in Malacañang and the Dutertes blindsided by overconfidence — the couple did their moves.

The Senate coup

Thus, the game is afoot with an alibi presented by the naïve Senator de la Rosa, who in defense of his Davao mentor who made him, conducted a half-cooked Senate cum-grandstanding hearing on PDEA, complete with an actress in a cast of characters designed to expose BBM as a cokehead — bangag! This scheme backfired and culminated in the eventual ouster of an equally guileless Senate president, Juan Miguel Zubiri, by the newly minted Escudero-Jinggoy faction, including the totally clueless and complicit Senator Bato pining with tears, histrionics and inanities, "I failed the war for you (Zubiri)" and promptly stabbed his friend's back even after the deed is done. And a b-s of a statement justifying his role in a mumbled interview that his vote with the new Senate majority was irrelevant. Indeed!

This nincompoop is putty in the hands of Senators Chiz and Jinggoy. And having shamelessly retained his chairmanship of the Senate committee on public order and dangerous drugs, the very same committee that was reportedly the cause of Zubiri's ouster, will he now have to drop the hearing — declaring it terminated? This senator has always been incapable of thinking things through — from the time he was a Duterte lackey as police chief and implementor of the war on drugs and the dreaded "Oplan Tokhang."

We will now find a new Senate profile fractured with the remnants — the disinherited, who pompously and incongruously labeled themselves as the "principled magic seven." A belligerent Senate in cahoots, perhaps with the real minority opposition — Pimentel and Hontiveros — will be useless in addressing the legitimate Philippine issues that could disrupt BBM's legislative agenda. But knowing the nature of political patronage underpinning our governance — greed has a way of mitigating these developments.

Local level

Another riveting development is the unfolding drama at the local level, reminding the adolescent-thinking Davao City Mayor Baste of his indiscretions — agitating for the resignation of the most powerful person in the political totem pole, deriding him as "weak!"

It may be recalled that the young Duterte — seeking to etch his reputation as a strong-willed local executive with no qualms mimicking the Deegong's signature "I will kill you, if..." conducted several lethal operations, his own "war on drugs 2.0," exploiting the discredited Oplan Tokhang which the Deegong authored and now meriting him an investigation by the ICC.

Thus, this week, 35 policemen who participated in the anti-drug operations conducted from March 23 to 26 this year, where seven drug-related suspects surrendered, died or were killed, were themselves relieved ("35 Davao City police sacked," The Manila Times, May 26, 2024).

Reading between the lines, this "weak president" has bared his fangs and performed a political surgery — a move that even the Deegong in his heyday couldn't have done better. BBM has caused the sacking of the Davao City police chief (DCPO), Richard Bad-ang, and 11 station commanders and their deputies. Under the Local Government Code, these are all under the supervision of Mayor Baste but under the direct chain of command of the regional director of Police Regional Office 11 (PRO 11), Brig. Gen. Aligre Martinez.

Baste's castration commences!

But the narrative does not end here. Two battalions of the Special Action Forces (SAF) of the Philippine National Police are now stationed in Davao — approximately 2,000 men. These combat-ready troops would help hunt the Duterte media kingpin ally and spiritual confessor — the Appointed Son of God (ASOG) Pastor Quiboloy — who, through unconfirmed reports, is believed to be hiding in plain sight, doing the rounds in his helicopter. Davao's climate has truly become hotter this summer.

General Martinez, for his part, deflated the assignment of the SAF battalions as a possible "political vendetta," explaining, "...we're not strengthening any force here. The regular deployment of SAF is anchored on its mandate as a special action force ... when law enforcement is needed. It is not being done on timing for anything... the PNP leadership stands by its mandate, assuring the public that the PNP, especially Region 11 (Davao), strictly adheres to its mandates in enforcing the law, prevent and control crimes, maintain peace and order, and ensure public safety and internal security with the active support of the community."

So, okay! It doesn't have any bearing at all with Mayor Baste calling the weak President BBM to resign, the Deegong calling BBM "bangag!" and Duterte ally former speaker Pantaleon Alvarez urging "the Armed Forces (AFP) to withdraw their support from BBM — 'to attain peace and stability.'" (Philstar, April 16, 2024)

Destabilization

Adding fuel to the fire (in Bisaya we call this "nagpaduding"), BBM has been going around military camps giving hints of military attempts at a 'pretend coup' — heightening the drama for whatever purpose he has in mind, or as a pretext of something yet to unfold. On the other hand, former senator Trillanes, perhaps in aid of a senatorial comeback, has been tossing around morsels of 'tsismis' that "...some retired and active police officers were trying to gather recruits for the ouster plot... Trillanes, who had led rebellions against former president Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo, said those who were hatching the plot want Vice President Sara Duterte to take over if Marcos is impeached." (TMT, May 25, 2024).

Sara's predicament

So, we come to the obvious target of the Marcos allies — Vice President Sara. Up to this point, Sara has managed to retain her popularity with the implicit help of the still-popular ex-president's father, and especially when compared to the seemingly perceived weak chief executive. Sara has managed to keep her nose clean, and in contrast to her dysfunctional family, particularly her siblings, she has managed to retain a certain politically regal poise, eliciting sympathy even after the very public snub by the first lady. Her advantage is that she is an elected official; the former is not.

Sara's own narrative is yet to be written.

Third of a series

PART 2 last week ended with injecting the first lady into our conversation as an embattled, powerful consort to a weak president. But this is not a tsismis column and until new developments surface that contribute to the success or failure of BBM's administration, topics on her will be irrelevant.

To recap, Duterte is impeded from another presidential run, but his attempts to insert himself into the political fray can't be curtailed. He is compelled to safeguard his legacy, the propagation of his political dynasty through VP Sara's ascendancy to the presidency, and, to a lesser degree, prevent his incarceration — a very long shot — resulting from the International Criminal Court (ICC) investigation.

'Who in the world am I?'

On the other hand, BBM still has three years to redeem the Marcos name and cement its political dynasty dominance. None in the immediate family is on the horizon to take up the cudgels, except for the House speaker whose aborted constitutional shift to a parliamentary system that he hoped would guarantee him the prime minister post, dislodging VP Sara from the presidency, has failed — "suntok sa buwan," as we say in the vernacular.

There is still a year to go before the midterm elections, but the political maneuverings are palpable, portending tectonic shifts. For one, the UniTeam that propelled the two political dynasties may be splitting at the seams. BBM's Federal Party (PFP) recently forged an alliance with cousin Martin Romualdez's Lakas-CMD to establish the base for the administration's senatorial ticket. Lakas-CMD boasts 100 House members, while PFP claims nearly half of the provincial governorships. It will be noted that the UniTeam alliance that propelled BBM-Sara in the 2022 national polls was composed of the PFP, Lakas-CMD, VP Sara's Hugpong ng Pagbabago (HNP), Partido ng Masang Pilipino (PNP) and assorted guest candidates. But a deal breaker could be the proviso of Speaker Martin that only those politicians in favor of the proposed Charter change would be included in their full senatorial slate — a constitutional proposal the Dutertes vehemently oppose.

PDP-Laban

Meantime, the once formidable PDP-Laban, the party that propelled Duterte to the presidency in 2016, has since undergone various permutations. The left-of-center (to center) party founded by the Mindanao-Visayas anti-Marcos dictatorship group headed by Nene Pimentel has completely lost its bearings. On its 42nd founding anniversary, one of its major factions decided to drop "Laban" from its name — harking back to the pre-1982 Partido Demokratiko Pilipino (PDP) prior to its merger with Ninoy Aquino's Lakas ng Bayan (Laban) — but without any ideological anchorage. It has become a pathetic floating shell of a political party peopled by shady politicians and prey to opportunists who possess the wherewithal to capture the brand for nefarious ends, with one faction of the originals headed by the iconic founder's lackluster son hankering for the post-martial law days.

Polls and surveys — same old, same old

One of the diversions appearing during the election season is the employment of polls and surveys, momentary photographs of where candidates, potential candidates, wannabees, and issues and preferences are temporarily situated or pervert the process to advance the agenda of those sponsoring the surveys. These are legitimate or biased, depending on where one sits. One, therefore, must take these polls with a grain of salt.

But as political "ususeros," Pinoys love to speculate this early on rankings of their favorite name brands. Not on issues, qualifications or what they stand for. Just tired popular political names — from the Tulfo brothers to actors turned pseudo-law experts, the Padillas and Revillas, to battered boxer Pacquiao, comedians, and senatorial buffoons, the likes of de la Rosa, Lapid, convicted felon Jinggoy, et al.

But we also have some long-shot speculators advancing a numbers game — "last 2 combinations," a Marcos-Duterte tandem post-BBM. This time, Sara and Imee, two formidable women who have displayed independent thinking and a modicum of political will — rightful heiresses to strong-willed fathers and much, much better than their inadequate brothers. Sara, the female Deegong sans the dirty mouth, and Imee, who perhaps inherited the incisive mind of the father and the charisma of the regal Imelda of the 3,000 shoes.

But can they hold their partnership and sustain their close sisterhood together and weather the influences of their respective families? With these two, the saga of their respective political dynasties may prosper while negating a warped conjugal presidency and an insufferable, aberrant, misogynistic father.

Midterm elections crucial — for whom?

May 2025 is a final barometer for a change only in political personalities for the next regime. It is possible that the Marcos camp could consolidate its supremacy and may even entrench the conjugal presidency. It is possible, too, that the Duterte camp will insinuate their people back in and reinforce VP Sara's claim to the next presidency, allowing the Deegong to continue his game at "pretend presidency." There could be drastic changes in the profile of the legislature and resuscitate the "Appointed Son of God" to continue being a fake arbiter of people's souls and influence outcomes of candidacies by dispensing the cult's captive votes. But will the changes in the midterm elections portend real changes to the Philippine system of governance?

What is at stake?

The real stakes in this midterm are nothing more than a change in personalities pursuing the goals of the olipolidyns ("The oligarchy and political dynasty — impact on governance," The Manila Times, April 3, 2024) political power that will enrich their respective camps; and maybe as an afterthought also benefit the people's welfare — if consonant with their objectives. The change will be in the actors, not the play — following the same plot and tired decades-old drama. There will be no systemic alterations to the dysfunctional system of governance long immersed in political patronage (polpat).

Of course, all sides will pay lip service to the following: poverty alleviation, the economy, corruption, peace and order and in foreign relations, China's bullying, and America's neocolonialism.

So, we go through the "moro-moro," a theater of the absurd, subjecting the incumbent government to whether the electorate is satisfied or not.

Publicus Asia Inc. pronounced dissatisfaction with the BBM administration: "Economic concerns, rising inflation, joblessness, low wages and a perceived lack of productivity are some of the emerging factors behind the drop in pro-administration support. The survey also noted that the 'Duterte effect' still persists, with opposition parties grappling with the discreditation of the previous administration."

On the other hand, OCTA Research survey "... found that fewer Filipino families rated themselves poor and hungry in the first quarter of 2024 ... the country's self-rated poverty is at 42 percent, which is 3 percent lower compared to 45 percent recorded in a similar survey held in the fourth quarter of 2023 ... It must be noted that self-rated poverty has been going down at a modest rate for the last five quarters starting July 2023."

The former found BBM's performance a dismal failure. The latter declares it's an unmitigated success. Go figure!

And on foreign relations, the usual motherhood statements, laced with a little arrogance, "We shall not surrender even an inch of our territory" — the helpless looking up to America for deliverance — in case!

To be continued

Second of a series

THE specter of the Deegong hovers over the Philippine political scene, a major factor in the confluence of events leading to the midterm elections, considering his still high popularity rating and his family's hold on their bailiwick in the south and among the Bisaya-speaking voters.

This state of affairs is perhaps a nostalgic offshoot of the Duterte years that painted him as a strong leader verging on the authoritarian, an iconoclastic politician, an outsider, an unsophisticated, dirty-mouthed, uncultured "probinsyano" never before seen among the heavily Luzon-centric rarified womb of presidents.

The Deegong, inured to the pomp and adoration of the masses, can't help being a political cynosure after his presidential stint but is now facing the consequences of his brutal presidential acts, haunted by the possibility of incarceration through the sanctions of the International Criminal Court (ICC). In a similar fashion, Duterte's predecessor, ex-president Gloria Macapagal Arroyo, spent time under hospital arrest until exonerated by the Supreme Court. To defend herself and her tattered legacy, she ran and was reelected to Congress.

Duterte, too, threatens to run for Senate. In the latest Publicus Asia survey, he maintains a high ranking — a veritable shoo-in. But the way he has been seen in public lately, with his cane, a shuffled walk, a tottering old man with a stooped body, he can barely climb the steps. His coterie has to bodily carry him up to the "entablado," where he revives and commands an audience of partisans. But the vitriol spewing out of his mouth remains undiminished.

It is doubtful he can survive the rigors of an election campaign. In the latest prayer meeting in Bacolod — a euphemism for a political rally, cloaked as a religious gathering — he again called for President Marcos to resign, a recurring theme. And the Deegong has been doing the rounds in the country, starting in Davao two months ago when the rift between two political dynasties opened up. He is on the warpath!

The chasm between the Marcoses and Dutertes has widened, and the stakes are high — the eventual dominance of the political dynasty emerging after the midterm elections in May of 2025. What triggered this conflict was as innocuous as VP Sara being deprived of her status as the prima inter pares in this administration.

Ingrato

It is a fact that the Dutertes helped immensely in the Marcoses repairing their image after their years in the political wilderness. Mayor Baste Duterte reminded the Marcoses that it was his father who allowed the burial of the late dictator's cadaver at the Libingan ng Mga Bayani, the initial steps toward the Marcoses' rehabilitation. It is a general belief, too, that Sara could have taken the presidency but gave way to BBM — a decision the Deegong had gone ballistic over.

The conflicts surfaced at the onset of BBM's administration. Sara was refused the coveted defense portfolio that she wanted. She got the Department of Education instead, where subsequently, her intelligence fund — a source for political manna — was gutted. On top of this, the ICC investigation of Duterte's alleged crimes during the war on drugs has prospered. And Duterte's powerful religious fanatic ally, a deluded "Appointed Son of God" and his propaganda machinery — a necessary tool in the Dutertes' preeminence — the Sonshine Media Network (SMNI) was to be disenfranchised and castrated in Congress by BBM's allies.

The Marcoses

All of these should not have come to a head were it not for the Duterte camp's arrogance that they can get away with these assaults, confronting the colorless BBM whose tolerance is being perceived as a sign of his weakness. Aside from their call for the "cokehead to resign" the presidency, their ally, former speaker Pantaleon Alvarez, has been emboldened to call for the armed forces to disregard the chain of command. A seditious challenge!

Lifting from a contemporary writer's posts, Jose Alejandrino: "Bongbong is a kid who never grew up... Bongbong inherited the sweet character of his mother Imelda and, being the only son, was naturally spoiled. But he is in the wrong job. His father, the late President Ferdinand Edralin Marcos, wrote that his son needed to 'develop character.' Being the favorite, like most spoiled children, Bongbong doted on his mother... It is also his lack of character that drove him as a young man to like coke, as it was the in-thing with the boys of his age to show he was part of the 'in-crowd.'"

And even older sister, Sen. Imee, the Marcos whose intellectual grasp and demeanor are nearest the father — and should have been the heir(ess) to Makoy's political legacy as president — confirmed in some oblique way in the movie she produced "Maid in Malacañang." She assigned her younger brother one dramatic scene with the Apo, which Ambeth Ocampo, a critic, described as "...a whimpering child of a man desperate for his father's attention and approval...." Even with literary license — the role was most degrading — the future president should not have been depicted this way.

A family rift

This could explain the disharmony between the in-laws, precipitating the fierce defense by Liza, the wife, who recently, in the Taberna interview, bared her soul and her teeth when the Deegong called her husband "bangag," while VP Sara reportedly looked on with amusement from the sidelines. In the face of BBM's inability to defend himself, as in Imee's words, "My brother is 'masyadong mabait,'" this was the last straw that broke the camel's back. Liza, the mother hen, understandably came to her brood's defense. This could be an appropriately acceptable natural behavior by an aggrieved, stronger-willed mother and a wife to a fragile president.

But she went beyond the limits of her discretion. A consort to the powerful must not go beyond the official functions of the royal court. Yet she asserted she caused the termination of no less than the executive secretary — the "little president," the second most powerful position in the executive department. And further admitted recommending the appointments of a cordon sanitaire, replacing the ones originally around the President. And when warned that there could be consequences and repercussions, her riposte, pronounced only by a sharp, savvy and New York-trained lawyer: "Bring it on!"

Now, Philippine politics has been muddled, reviving the image of Imelda 2.0, eliciting from the publisher of a revered newspaper a defense of Liza.

But the last say could be from those of the older generation who knew the Imelda Marcos of the 3,000 shoes. She was elegant, tall, gorgeous, articulate in her own peculiar way. But what was really going for her was that the original Makoy appointed her to the bureaucracy — cloaking her with the wherewithal of an official of the legitimate Cabinet — Minister of the Human Settlements and governor of Metro Manila, who presided over the uplifting of the culture of the great "bakya" masses. She later ran and was elected to the Batasang Pambasa (parliament).

I have not met Liza. She doesn't know me from Adam. But she is not Imelda 2.0 — but a professional, a lawyer, an educator, a mother and a wife, but unfortunately, an unelected adjunct to a weak presidency. But I must sympathize with her!

Last of 3 parts

The three high-profile crimes involving former president Duterte, Pastor Quiboloy and former congressman Arnulf Teves, Jr. discussed in the first and second parts of this series form the backdrop for this third part. This concluding column examines the hypothesis that such cases, particularly as they involve powerful people and many similar ones, perfunctorily go through the wringer of our justice system impelled by political considerations, producing undesirable results inimical to the libertarian concepts we hold dear.

Drawing heavily from our Centrist Democracy (CD) literature (www.cdpi.asia), politics, in its classic but simplified definition, is a set of undertakings directed toward gaining power and authority in government for the purpose of influencing governance for the common good.
This column postulates how the practice of politics, good or bad, impacts concepts of justice, democracy and the rule of law. Simply put, our political practices distort all these.

But we will not go academically exploring in detail the classic thinkers and philosophers who gave life to these ideals: Plato in his work "The Republic"; Thomas Aquinas on the importance of natural law and the moral basis of legal authority; John Locke's social contract theory; Immanuel Kant's emphasis on the importance of rationality and universal principles in determining ethical behavior, influencing concepts of justice and the rule of law; and John Stuart Mill on the protection of individual liberties and the need for laws to promote the greatest happiness for the greatest number. These topics are best dealt with in-depth in some future columns. These original thinking titans, however, laid the groundwork for our understanding of justice and the rule of law, shaping the principles that underpin modern legal systems and ethical frameworks.

Desirable political practices

To put things in proper perspective and central to the practice of good politics, a menu of desirable ingredients should be included in our system of governance for those who seek political power through elective and appointive means. If a lawyer must pass the bar exams or dentist, doctor, engineer, chiropractor, or massage therapist needs to go through rigorous licensure processes to practice their professions, this should similarly be imposed for politicians vying for power in government — in addition to the ultimate consent of the governed through elections.

Prior to the choice of political leadership, clear mechanisms should be put in place to weed out those who seek political power solely for their own and their families' interests. ("The Olipolidyn impact on governance," TMT, April 3, 2024.) This necessitates in our system of governance the need for real ideologically differentiated political parties vying for legitimate political power to begin with ("Political parties — what we need are real ones," TMT, July 21, 2021), and these structural corrections must all be embedded in laws ("Amendments to the Philippine Constitution," TMT, Aug. 11, 18 and 25, 2016).

All these structural adjustments are necessary preconditions for what could induce good political practices, which should include, among others, transparency in government processes impelling proper comportment of officials. Mechanisms for oversight and monitoring compel public accountability for their performance — and transgressions of the same promptly penalized. This type of scrutiny minimizes conflicts of interest, holding them to high ethical standards and acting in the best interest of the public rather than for their personal gain. Fairness plays a major part in the promulgation of policies, with decisions made with consideration for the needs and rights of all citizens, regardless of their background or circumstances, promoting equality of opportunity, protecting minority rights, and ensuring that the benefits and burdens of governance are distributed fairly.

Good practices of politics gleaned from other advanced countries are both the causes and results of democratic processes where leaders are elected through free and fair elections, and where checks and balances are in place preventing abuse of power. More important is the establishment of strong institutions, a free press, and a vibrant civil society that holds leaders accountable for their acts.

PH political practices

A conundrum arose in Philippine politics during the decades of self-governance after our American colonialists bequeathed us a legacy of democracy and republicanism, which, to some extent, may not have even worked or been similarly distorted in America. Why, then, are our practices so dysfunctional? The subsidiary questions are all-pervasive: Where did we really learn our political practices? Was it endemic to Philippine culture? Was it simply adapted, or was it imposed? Or was it self-taught? Many have suggested a myriad of elements. Our political practices in the Philippines have definitely been influenced by a combination of factors, including indigenous traditions, colonial history, and external influences. The Philippines has a long history of indigenous political systems — the barangay and the datu-sultanate — which were forms of local governance before the arrival of the Spanish colonizers. During the 300 years of Spanish colonial rule, the Philippines was governed under a centralized system with power concentrated in the hands of the Spanish authorities. This colonial experience left a lasting impact on the political structures and practices in the country. The Philippines also experienced nearly 50 years of American colonial rule, during which time the country was introduced to Western democratic principles and institutions — superimposed over that of the Spanish/datu/sultanate tutelage evolving into political patronage ("The olipolidyn-polpat genesis," TMT, April 10, 2024). The American colonial period's significant influence on the development of the Philippines' political system includes the establishment of a bicameral legislature, a system of free elections, and a strong emphasis on individual rights and freedoms — all alien to the Filipino original system of governance.

In our more recent history, the Philippines has faced periods of authoritarian rule, most notably during the martial law era under Ferdinand Marcos, Sr. This period of dictatorship had a lasting impact on the country's political culture and institutions, reverberating to the present regime — the dictator's son. Overall, the political practices in the Philippines are a complex mixture of indigenous traditions, colonial legacy, and external influences. While some aspects of the political system may have been adapted or imposed from outside, there are also elements that are endemic to Philippine culture and history. The country's political practices have evolved over time through a combination of internal and external influences.

Resolutions to the conundrum

In a series of columns in 2023, starting with the Philippines' grasp of Western concepts of justice, democracy and the rule of law, we contrasted these with alternative systems, e.g., China's totalitarianism and various permutations of benevolent and autocratic regimes of Singapore, Malaysia and South Korea — to extract the best non-contradictory practices from these countries and adapt to Philippine conditions. The analysis was more than academic as concepts and practices in these countries have also evolved influenced by their own historicities — resulting in workable and successful governments.

Our conclusion was that the distortions in our brand of politics, justice, democracy and the rule of law can best be corrected by espousing one model that best suits the temperament, culture and the evolution of three other successful Asian countries: Malaysia, South Korea and Singapore ("Autocratic pragmatism — one final act," TMT, Oct.11, 2023).

It's high time our governance metamorphoses into autocratic pragmatism!

Second of 3 parts

LAST week's column cited three crimes involving powerful people: former president Rodrigo Duterte, former congressman and deputy speaker Arnulfo Teves Jr., and Pastor Apollo Quiboloy. These high-profile criminal cases have international implications, but they don't matter. Their local deleterious political repercussions have more importance. And considering how the wheels of justice in this country turn and grind slowly, based on similar cases involving the high and mighty, I estimate that social and mass media will determine a short life expectancy until the next controversy supersedes. And out of the public glare, our dysfunctional system intrudes, and in the end, nothing happens. These three would most probably go scot-free, and Philippine jurisprudence will be none the worse for wear. The man in the street will speculate why. Na politika na naman!

Deegong and Quiboloy cases

It is now obvious that the continued investigation of the International Criminal Court (ICC) cases when BBM said he was studying the Philippines' return to the ICC fold triggered Duterte's ire that is now tearing the UniTeam and the political firmament apart. The Philippines under Duterte withdrew from the international tribunal in 2019 after he questioned its authority to investigate his campaign against illegal drugs that killed thousands of Filipinos. The Marcoses, upon BBM's assumption of the presidency, were then fully behind this move. But BBM's reversal was the Damocles sword held over the former president's head, the red line BBM can't cross, sparking vituperative statements calling BBM "bangag," a dope addict, with his two sons artlessly joining the chorus excepting the daughter, Sara, who did not exactly stay in the sidelines — a fact that riled the first lady.

No doubt the cavalier treatment by the Marcos camp of VP Sara, stripping her of intelligence funds from which a substantial portion traditionally and anomalously could be diverted to future campaign funds, to the very public snub by the first lady Liza of Sara added fuel to the political fire now raging between the two political dynasties. Political cognoscenti and pundits see these as the opening gambits for the mid-term elections in 2025 and the ultimate 2028 presidential elections.

As to the powerful ally of the Dutertes, Pastor Quiboloy and his media empire, the Sonshine Media Network International (SMNI), may go the way of a similar Duterte bete noire, the Lopez-owned ABS-CBN. SMNI's disenfranchisement is now going through the wringer in Congress, orchestrated by the powerful Marcos relative, House Speaker Martin Romualdez — the not-so-apparent heir to the Marcos political dynasty. The ASOG Quiboloy likewise has a deadly cloud of uncertainty hovering over his head with his possible extradition to America over a multitude of cases being investigated by the US FBI of rape, child molestation, cash smuggling, and laundering. Urban legend suggests the ASOG may be hiding in plain sight in Davao, protected by his Kingdom of Jesus Christ Church (KOJC) — his and Duterte's bailiwick, where even the uniformed authorities must look the other way. Then again, the finale to all these is substantially in the hands of President Marcos. But politics is the underlying condition upon which these may be resolved.

The case of the ex-congressman

It could be different with ex-congressman Arnulfo Teves Jr. Compared to the previous two; he is a small fish in a pond now undergoing the process of expulsion from Timor-Leste from where he was arrested, living the good life of a rich fugitive. He is not too high up in the national political totem pole to become a headache for the Marcoses, but his clan in the Visayas could prove to be invaluable in Negros Oriental and Visayas politics as he can boast of a distinguished bloodline: former Negros Oriental governors 'Meniong' and Lorenzo Teves, former finance secretary Margarito Teves, brother and former governor Pryde Henry Teves (his election was annulled by Comelec), and assorted local government (LGU) mayors and minor elective officials. These are bargaining chips in our type of transactional politics.

From where we sit, the resolution of these cases depends not so much on Philippine jurisprudence and the fairness of our justice system but on the exigencies and realities and how the pragmatism of politics will unfold these coming months. And these are the prevailing conditions by which this country is now being perceived by our neighbors and tragically even by our own citizenry and which right-thinking Pinoys should be ashamed of.

Will the Deegong be brought to face the ICC and answer for his transgressions — if any — and satisfy the demands of families of the thousands of victims reportedly killed during his regime? I doubt it! He is too politically powerful and has enough clout to prevent being arrested, even if a warrant of arrest comes from the ICC. Currently, he has maintained his high popularity with the Filipino masses, and a substantial portion of the elected senators and congressmen owe him fealty. For the mid-term elections of 2025, he ranks a high second place in the senatorial preference surveys, according to the polls conducted by Publicus Asia. And among those senators who could win, more than half are his minions and allies.

Can he be arrested in Davao? And by whom? The ICC has no police powers or an independent mechanism to enforce arrest warrants and depends solely on the host countries' judiciary systems. Reportedly, ICC judges have issued 40 such warrants in 22 years of existence, and 15 of those to be arrested remain at large. Vladimir Putin himself has an ICC-issued warrant of arrest.

The same may be true with the Deegong's ally, Pastor Quiboloy, as far as his cases in America are concerned. He may not be easily extradited to the US despite the FBI labeling him "wanted in America." He has too many powerful friends elected to the Senate and and the House through the captive votes of his church with a claimed membership running to the millions, not to mention the tax-free millions of church funds under his control. He has boasted that his assets are in the billions of US dollars. And he has the protection of his newly appointed KOJC assets "encargado" — the Deegong himself.

Yes, he could be arrested for the local criminal charges against him, but prosecuting him through the cracks of the Philippine justice system would almost be next to impossible — the reason why he fears the US CIA rendition.

What is imperative for the country is the need for the presidency to display moral ascendancy with a clearly defined agenda to effect change using one's political capital exhibiting political will. It doesn't give the citizenry much confidence and the leadership much credibility when, for example, it is challenged by a former speaker, Pantaleon Alvarez, the Deegong's ally, calling for the military to withdraw support from a legitimate government. And BBM does nothing!

We boast of being the first truly democratic country in Asia when America first planted its system of governance and the underlying concepts of republicanism and democracy, where we uphold the rule of law. Perhaps it is high time to review these standards for their continued relevancy.

First of 3 parts

THREE high-profile cases with international implications are the backdrop for this series on Philippine politics and jurisprudence. These are not run-of-the-mill types, as they involve powerful persons. However, they are not only cautionary tales but also reflections of the kind of justice system that defines the rule of law as applied to Philippine governance.

Fugitive ex-congressman

First is the case of Negros Oriental congressman Arnolfo Teves Jr., who was involved in a ghastly crime caught on CCTV and went viral on social and mass media, exacerbated by the insipid response of government authorities. Negros Oriental Gov. Roel Degamo was murdered in broad daylight on March 2023, along with some of his people, at his residential compound. The congressman, a political rival, was accused of being behind the assassination, although he was out of the country days before Degamo's murder.

A public hearing by the Senate Committee on Public Order and Dangerous Drugs ensued, incongruously labeling Teves a terrorist, though he has not even been charged with any crime.

The House Ethics Committee subsequently held seven closed-door hearings since the killing to tackle Teves' case but merely slapped a 60-day suspension order twice, a cavalier treatment by his colleagues, while Teves was already romping free abroad and gone AWOL, refusing to come home to face the music. Eventually, he was expelled from Congress and charged in court five months after the deed, by which time he had evaded justice and was practically allowed by the system to fly the coop.

Only a year after the murder was Teves finally arrested in Dili, Timor-Leste, while absurdly playing golf. His apprehension was a joint operation of the International Police's (Interpol) National Central Bureau (NCB) in Dili and the Timorese police. Teves was on Interpol's red notice alert, requiring member states to cooperate to collar a miscreant abroad. Teves couldn't be spirited out of Timor-Leste as he used all legal remedies to seek political asylum, which was denied. The Philippines has no extradition treaty with Timor-Leste, but both are signatories to the United Nations Convention on Transnational Organized Crime (Untoc), which could provide a framework for extradition. But a faster way was initiated by the Department of Foreign Affairs (DFA) by canceling his passport, rendering his stay in Timor-Leste illegal and subjecting him to immediate deportation.

Fugitive 'Appointed Son of God'

The second case involves Pastor Quiboloy, who now has three arrest warrants to his name: one issued by a grandstanding Senate committee for having snubbed the chamber's investigations on his alleged sexual abuses in his ministry; one issued by a Davao court for violation of Republic Act 7610, or the Special Protection of Children Against Abuse, Exploitation and Discrimination Act; and a third one by a Pasig trial court on qualified human trafficking charges. A non-bailable offense, this will bring him directly to a prison cell once apprehended.

On top of this, he is a wanted fugitive — with several other co-accused members of his church — by the US Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) for conspiracy to engage in sex trafficking by force, fraud, coercion, sex trafficking of children and cash smuggling.

But in all of this, Quiboloy, while in hiding, had the gall to demand from President Marcos, Justice Secretary Remulla, Philippine National Police (PNP) chief Gen. Rommel Francisco Marbil, and National Bureau of Investigation (NBI) Director Medardo de Lemos ironclad guarantees that he not be surrendered to the Americans. He has oftentimes alleged that US authorities have intentions to kidnap or kill him rather than extradite him for trial in an American court.

Quiboloy also claimed without an iota of proof that BBM had already agreed and therefore conspired with the Americans to hand him over to them once in custody, embellishing the tale further by saying that the CIA has arranged for his rendition — a process of illegal transfer, a scheme used to protect the façade of the cherished American justice system (Islamic terrorists were "renditioned" to Guantanamo Bay, Cuba for in-depth interrogation — a euphemism for waterboarding and torture).

As a repartee in a more dramatic fashion, he plays well as a deluded faux martyr; "Unless you give me the guarantee I'm looking for, go ahead and manhunt me. I will not be caught alive!" Quiboloy declared.

Of course, BBM will not oblige. And in a restrained adult response, chastising a child in a tantrum: "We will exercise all the compassion to Pastor Quiboloy; we've known him for a very long time. What I can promise is that all the proceedings will be fair."

Quiboloy's dread is similar to why South American drug lords like the Columbian Pablo Escobar fear extradition to the US. They can't buy or blow their way out of American jails. Escobar intimidated the Colombian government into agreeing to build, at his own expense, his palatial prison — exclusive to him and his cohorts in crime.

And witness the Philippines' overcrowded New Bilibid Prison, where the rich inmates live in luxurious apartment-like kubols protected by a patron or bosyo, top boss inmates with their own servants or "alalay." ("Understanding the Conditions of New Bilibid Prisons: Implications for Integrated Reforms, R.E. Narag, PhD, Southern Illinois University). The ASOG, with his resources, will thrive in such surroundings.

The US Embassy in Manila may not be so cryptic about its intentions either, stating: "For more than a decade, Apollo Quiboloy engaged in serious human rights abuses, including a pattern of systemic and pervasive rape of girls as young as 11 years old, and he is currently on the FBI's Most Wanted List. We are confident that Quiboloy will face justice for his heinous crimes." (Rappler.com, April 6, 2024)

The Deegong and the ICC

The third case involves former President Duterte Quiboloy's close friend, and now the "encargado" of his properties, who has pending cases in the International Court of Justice (ICC) on the killings of the so-called Davao Death Squad (DDS) while he was Davao City mayor, and the war-on-drugs killings during his term as president.

If the ICC issues an arrest warrant against Duterte — which the Deegong is sure is coming — the big question is how the Philippines can enforce such a warrant when the country is no longer a member of the ICC.

But the ICC has an agreement with Interpol (similar to ex-congressman Teves' case). The ICC can also request that the subjects of its warrant Interpol can now request that its 196 member countries cooperate and be put on the red notice alert. If that happens for Duterte, Interpol can now request its 196 member countries to cooperate and possibly arrest and detain Duterte on their behalf.

And there are precedents of notorious individuals, heads of state and political leaders accused of similar crimes, investigated by the ICC and some prosecuted: Omar al-Bashiir, president of Sudan; Laurent Gbagbo, the former president of Ivory Coast; Uhuru Kenyatta and William Ruto, president and deputy president of Kenya; and Bosco Ntaganda, a former rebel leader in the Democratic Republic of Congo, among others.

How will all this impact the Philippine political landscape and, more importantly, our justice system and the rule of law?

(To be continued next week)