First of 2 parts

As in most wars, the actual start of the conflict is often ambiguous. It is more a series of events, generating a spark that leads inevitably toward a conflagration. A case in point is World War 1. In June 28, 1914, Archduke Franz Ferdinand, heir to the Austria-Hungarian Empire, was assassinated by a Serbian nationalist in Sarajevo, the capital of Bosnia and Herzegovina, a country yearning to free itself from an empire. For a month, Austria-Hungary waited for Kaiser Wilhelm 2nd’s word that Germany would be on her side before declaring war — Serbia being allied to Russia, France and Great Britain. Upon Germany’s assurance, an ultimatum was issued with conditions so harsh that war became unavoidable. On August 4, Germany invaded France through neutral Belgium. Thus, the “Guns of August” began the war.

World War 2

WW 2 was quite different. The seeds of war were planted at the Treaty of Versailles on June 28, 1919 when a humiliated Germany, was forced to sign the document ending WW 1 with harsh demands for reparations and ceding territories to the victorious Allied powers represented by Great Britain, France and the United States (late comer to the war).

Historians attribute additional causes leading to war — the great depression and the consequent global economic dislocations that produced fascist charismatic leaders like Adolf Hitler and the Nazi Party; the rise of Japanese militarism and expansion in the Far East; and the policy of appeasement of Hitler by Britain and France, precipitated in part by guilt and later realization that the Treaty of Versailles was unfair to Germany. Appeasement only emboldened Hitler to act more aggressively, unleashing his blitzkrieg against Poland in Sept. 1, 1939. America entered the war Dec. 7, 1941, when Japan destroyed the US Fleet at Pearl Harbor.

World War 3

Future historians would probably mark the year of the coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19) as the veil concealing the start of the WW 3. On one side is the rising hegemon of the East, led by Chinese President Xi Jinping; and the West, by America — if President Donald Trump realizes it’s war. But this is no shooting war using guns and bullets or nuclear devices. This is a war of economic attrition and brinkmanship, but no less deadly. The prize is global trade dominance and leadership of the post-Covid-19 world that will set the agenda for the next generations. The country that emerges the winner is one that is best prepared for this type of conflict. China is.

Chinese preparations

For generations, China never wasted its resources on war. “The US has only enjoyed 16 years of peace in its 242-year history, making the country the most warlike nation in the history of the world” (Former US president James Earl Carter Jr.)

China has undergone tremendous stresses under shifting ideological experimentations in government and economy (“great leap forward,” “cultural revolution”) from the time of Mao Zedong, the founding father of the People’s Republic of China, to the socialist breakthrough in market-economy reform of Deng Xiaoping, the “architect of modern China.” His marrying the workable elements of socialist ideology and market enterprise became the templates employed by subsequent leadership, lifting 850 million Chinese out of extreme poverty from a rate of 88 percent in 1981 to 0.7 percent in 2015. And this “war on poverty” continues in 2019 propelling another 82 million of rural poor over the poverty line (World Bank Figures 2019).

This rapid change in China’s status followed a formula set by Deng Xiaoping, pursued by Jiang Zemin, Hu Jintao and Xi Jinping; enshrining for the latter both his name and ideology as “Xi Jinping thought on socialism with Chinese characteristics.” From 1978 “…China has pursued export-driven industrialization, liberalized the private sector, welcomed foreign investment and embraced global trade”. (International Monetary Fund-World Bank Report)

It has likewise modernized its armed forces spending $821 billion in five years dwarfed only by the US’ equivalent of $2,450.81 trillion. It has no ambition to reach parity with America as, in their mindset, any shooting war will lead to a mutually assure destruction. Under this doctrine, China instead has become assertive in the world’s affairs, claiming ancestral territorial sovereignty over lands within its nine-dash line. To date, it has developed and garrisoned these island-reefs into virtual unsinkable aircraft carriers contesting American presence in the South China (West Philippine) Sea which, since 1945, was known as “America’s lake in the Far East.”

US irresponsibly unprepared

Padoxically, America was the country best prepared to fight any type of conflict — a shooting war, which China will not oblige, or one against the pandemic. It has tremendous resources in weaponry, technology, science, global reach, experience and prestige. America assumed global leadership since WW 2 and subsequent American presidents built on it, catapulting the country to greater heights of wealth and power. Yet this “pandemic has amplified Trump’s instincts to go it alone and exposed just how unprepared Washington is to lead a global response. US missteps have undermined confidence in the capacity and competence of US governance. [But its] legitimacy flows from [its] domestic governance, provision of global public goods, and ability and willingness to muster and coordinate a global response to crises.” (Kurt Campbell and Rush Doshi, Foreign Affairs, July/August 2020)

Then Trump happened, dismantling in three years what his predecessor had built and nurtured. And the erosion of America’s prestige continues, as the world watches with a tinge of sadness mixed with nuanced derision.

Trump declared grandiosely that he was a wartime president, referring to the war against Covid-19 — his democrat rival Joe Biden derisively referred to him as the “president who surrendered.” Indeed, he is a wartime president except that, unbeknownst to the clueless Trump, he actually fired the first salvo of WW 3 on March 22, 2018 when he imposed tariffs of $50 billion on Chinese goods as part of his MAGA — “Make America Great Again” — economic policy reducing US trade deficits. Similar tariffs were likewise imposed on America’s allies. And now the global trade war rages.

American tragedy

To date, America’s abdication of its leadership caused 130,000 Americans to die of the pandemic; that could further be exacerbated by the daily Black Lives Matter street protests. But, then again, it must be clear by now that these are just symptoms of a systemic rot deeply embedded, just now exposed. First, America’s ideals of democracy and republicanism and the practice thereof are incongruent, creating an abomination. Second, the centuries-old decay that could no longer be contained surfaced through a nondescript yet aberrant death of a black man. Racism reared its ugly head. It is an American tragedy that both anomalies find expression in the American presidency.

Chinese narrative

Thus, China saw its own “manifest destiny” as America once did in1845 when she took upon herself the idea that she is destined to spread democracy, capitalism and even slavery, eventually compressing these concepts into the expansion of global trade as a vehicle for its values and hegemony. China’s version is now onstream, the “One Belt, One Road” initiative. Thus, WW 3 is now a reality. The nations of the world may start realigning.

To be continued next week

IT is definitely time to end the lockdowns that started March15, modified in various ways, aimed at containing Covid-19. It will be the 108th day of the quarantine on June 30, and we’re setting some record on the longest such lockdowns.

The Wuhan lockdown, the first such measure to contain the pandemic, lasted only 79 days. European countries with much worse outbreaks — with total deaths more than 35,000 — have either totally lifted their quarantine or eased restrictions drastically.

In our case, deaths have totaled “only” 1,177. The richest and most developed nations on earth like the United States, the United Kingdom and Italy have had 122,610; 43,000; and 35,000, respectively. Our ranking in terms of number of cases has been the same since March, in the 39th-40th slot (No. 1 being the worst, the USA), going by Worldometers’ data.

While perhaps morbid, it is the statistics on number of deaths — and the nature of Covid-19 — which I think are important to determine whether we have contained the pandemic, enough to lift the quarantine that has frozen much of economic activity and made Filipino’s lives miserable.

The course of Covid-19 has shown its two major features. First is that it is highly contagious, unlike its coronavirus cousins like the severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) and Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS) and even the common cold. Second, it is not as deadly as SARS (10 percent fatality rate) and MERS (34 percent), with a fatality rate for the Philippines of 3.9 percent, lower than that for the world of 5.2 percent.

While the caveat in those Covid-19 statistics is that it doesn’t take into account the extent of testing in a particular country, which may overestimate or underestimate the rate, it points to a reality that is both grim and not-so-grim.

Grim in that Covid-19 until a vaccine is found, is unlikely to be totally eradicated.

Not-so-grim in that, just as long as its rate of spread doesn’t overwhelm our hospitals, the number of deaths would still be manageable. The number of deaths won’t likely soar as to have TV images of mass graves, as in the case of Brazil, which after all practically did nothing to contain the pandemic.

In contrast we have, for 108 days, with 558,163 Filipinos so far tested, with a low 7 percent found free of the virus. With the 3.9 percent fatality rate mentioned, that would be a manageable 1,502 deaths.

Indeed, even with a vaccine against it, there are 60,000 Filipinos dying of pneumonia annually, compared to a likely 12,000 from Covid-19 this year.

While Covid-19 and pneumonia are totally different diseases, with different rates of transmission, their number of deaths somehow makes our choices clearer.

Would it be rational to impose a lockdown that severely damages the entire economy until everyone is vaccinated so we won’t have 60,000 Filipinos dying of pneumonia every year? I’m sure some economists can estimate that the poverty generated by, and the number Filipinos dying as a result of, a contraction (i.e., not just a slower GDP growth) of the economy, will be much more than 12,000.

Government had to impose the lockdown in March since, at the time, there was little data that could tell us how many Covid-19 cases and deaths could happen.

The statistics on Covid-19 deaths now themselves point to a containment of the pandemic.

Chart 1 Source: Department of Health
As shown in Chart 1, the peak of the pandemic’s deadliness was on April 1 when the 7-day moving average was 33 (Statisticians use the average for the past 7 days to give a better picture of the situation, rather than relying on figures just for one day.) This has significantly gone down to just the latest 1.14 deaths for the latest 7-day moving average on June 22. Per million Filipinos, the 7-day moving average of deaths is just 0.11, lower than the world average of 0.64, the US’ 1.85, Indonesia’s 0.17.

Chart 2
Although the daily announcements sound alarming, there is an unmistakable downward trend in cases, as shown in Chart 2. The peak of the pandemic’s spread here was on June 10, when the 7-day moving average was 571 cases per day. This has gone down to the June 20 average of 309 cases.

There are definitely hotspots though, where government should maintain quarantine, principally in Cebu City and the entire Cebu province as well as Quezon City.

But after 108 days of implementation, I’m sure the government can be more precise, more surgical, in imposing lockdowns, that is, aimed at particular areas where Covid-19 seems to be still rapidly spreading.

For instance in Cavite, the Covid-19 cases have been mainly in the large cities of Bacoor, Dasmariñas, Imus and General Trias. Furthermore, the cases in these cities are not distributed in their entire areas, but mostly in certain districts. In the municipality where I live, there have been no cases of Covid-19 in the past two months. There is no reason for our municipality to have some kind of lockdown.

Furthermore, the past 100 days or so have seen Filipinos practicing the things that epidemiologists have been repeating again and again, are the simple but effective ways of escaping and spreading the disease: the use of face masks, frequent handwashing, and social or physical distancing.

Anecdotal evidence though indicates that such practices are still not done by Filipinos in certain areas. Where I live and in Makati, you would see practically everyone in the streets and in supermarkets wearing face masks. Not so, I was told, in Parañaque and even Manila. Perhaps a simple municipal ordinance imposing fines for failure to wear masks in public places will go a long way in containing Covid-19 here.

Chart 3
Our hospital facilities have also been expanded so that these won’t be overwhelmed by a spike in cases we will have to endure when the lockdowns are lifted. Less than half of the different available facilities for Covid-19 patients are occupied, as shown in Chart 3.