THE Donald blinked! But the scam artist and his minions made tons of money on the side. Trump has always telegraphed his disdain towards China and cockeyed intentions for the rest of the world. His campaign centered on raising tariffs globally to avenge America being ripped off. Barely a month into his second term, he arbitrarily fashioned a semblance of a scheme.

On Feb. 4, 2025, Trump imposed a 10-percent tariff on China; and on March 4, another 20 percent. Bolstered by China's non-response, he declared on April 2, America's "Liberation Day," bullying trading partners with a minimum 10-percent tariff on all US imports plus higher tariffs on 57 countries. China was singled out with an additional 34 percent. The pissing contest commenced.

On April 4, China retaliated with its own tariff of 34 percent. In a pique, Trump raised the ante to 145 percent. But on April 9, China hit back with 84 percent; and on April 11 slapped America further with 125 percent.

Trump was stunned but clueless still that his decisions on tariffs in two days, April 2 and 3, had obliterated $10 trillion of the global market capitalization. But more deadly, he precipitated a state of violent uncertainty, a bane to nations and corporations planning out their economies. The world is held hostage to the impulses of this inveterate megalomaniac.

The scam on the side

But before that, on April 10 — eight days after his "Liberation Day" announcements — the Donald caved in but hatched a diabolical scheme allowing his cronies and perhaps himself to make millions on the world financial markets. Hours before he announced a 90-day suspension of the April 2 tariff, he tweeted what could have been a signal to his friends, "This is a great time to buy!" Upon opening, the DOW skyrocketed 2,963 points — raking in millions for those that got the alert a few hours earlier. Senate Democrats want this insider trading investigated.

Then on April 13, Trump, humiliated, surrendered on the tariff war! He had to exclude 20 categories of Chinese electronics from the 90-day tariff suspension: smartphones, computers, laptops and other electronic devices, semiconductors, solar cells and memory cards.

To save face, he pretended this was his masterstroke — part of his plan all along, art of the deal — announcing 60 countries are "kissing his ass" to negotiate. Some did sue to negotiate. Not China. Trump prevaricated that China wants to negotiate but doesn't know how to go about it. "Please, pretty please, call to negotiate" — could have been Trump's plea to Xi Jinping!

The faux-free market capitalist

Predictably, Trump is incapable of grasping the repercussions of his acts. He plays things "oido" — no notes, bereft of strategy whatsoever, only chaos. As Jeffrey Sachs, the eminent Harvard political economist said, Trump's understanding of world trade and deficits is very low — Mickey Mouse level; with apologies to the Mickey who is smarter than the Donald. He is antediluvian on economic principles, unappreciative of the nuances of world trade as mutually beneficial — that if you stop trade, everybody loses. He is a zero-sum gamer; I win, you lose!

It has not sunk in that his decisions caused a sell-off in the bond markets — US Treasury debts — the safest financial instruments in the world, increasing yields on these bonds leading to increased borrowing rates for consumers and businesses potentially slowing global economic growth. Of the $36 trillion US debt, $7.9 trillion is held by Japan, China and the UK; heavily tariffed, they can dump these debts in retaliation.

American allies know that what Trump is doing is irrational. His tariffs, particularly against his bete noire, — China, at 145 percent. Sachs says he is driven "...by the USA's deep neurotic attachment to China — the US Political System hates China... because China's big and successful." This brewing trade war between America and China will mess up the whole world.

In the end, China, which does not depend so much on its 12 percent exports to the US, wins. Former NEDA director-general Cielito Habito warned: "China, shut off from the US market with prohibitive tariffs, will flood Southeast Asian markets with their manufactured products that have nowhere else to go — and in the process kill domestic manufacturers along with hundreds of thousands, possibly millions of jobs elsewhere in the region."

Tyrannus idioticus

On the corollary question: How can this happen when this makes no sense? Sach's take is that the US is now under one-person rule. The US political system is in a state of collapse. Trump operates by emergency rulings, dishing out a parade of executive orders abetted by the inaction of a castrated GOP majority, too intimidated to act against the MAGA. Trump has usurped congressional powers that has never been vested in the US presidency. So, in his puerile concept, trade deficits are emergencies to be resolved by arbitrary tariffs.

The Philippine situation

America has been one of our longest trading partners, having been its colony for more than 100 years. Currently, trade with America totals $23.5 billion. We imported $9.3 billion and exported $14.2 billion for a surplus of $4.9 billion — conversely, America's deficit.

For this deficit on Big Brother, Trump slapped us a reciprocal 17-percent tariff. And we couldn't even retaliate. But being longtime vassals, brown brothers, we should be able to negotiate a lower final tariff rate.

What should worry us is the impact on our overseas Filipino workers (OFWs) — our citizens in diaspora all over the world. Offhand, in 2024 OFW remittances accounted for 8.3 percent of the country's gross domestic product and 7.41percent of gross national income. This represents a substantial contribution to our economy keeping it afloat. This helped us expand our economy by 5.6 percent last year. To a large extent, this $38.34 billion propped up the Philippines better than some other countries in Southeast Asia post the Covid pandemic — and this is not subject to tariffs.

On a much more personal level, remittances are not only one of our major sources of foreign exchange but more importantly, they provide income for families, pay for their rent, put food on the table and send the children to schools, helping these Filipinos to hopefully prop their heads over the poverty line. Trade wars and disruptions in global economies affect the OFW adversely — perforce sinking our own.

A silver lining

As a resilient people, kept under bondage by centuries of foreigners and decades by our own kind — the Filipino politicians and their allies among the political dynasties and the oligarchy — we have a knack for looking at the bright side of any debacle. We should see a window of opportunity in these current US-China driven tariff and trade wars. If we can persuade the anti-Marcos and the anti-Duterte to pause for a moment from their internecine fight and dig deep into their patriotic sinews, then we can follow the adage that "when elephants dance, the ants get out of their way," or at least something to that effect.

There is a window of opportunity opening for us to attract global manufacturing and investments abandoning China and America looking for safe havens.

We have a comparative advantage to ensnare these.