Islam, China and the Philippines
Part 2

IN the book, Huntington began forming his hypothesis several decades back by exploring the archetypes of global politics in the post-Cold War period, in an attempt to predict the future world order. The dominant thought surfacing then was that the West won the Cold War, therefore liberal democracy, capitalism and expansion of free markets, with the attendant Western values of human rights were the only remaining alternatives for other nations to adopt.

Western prismatic view of the clash of civilizations followed a logical trajectory of historical development from the struggles between kings and nation states and ideologies. But after 1991, non-Western civilizations, especially those behind the iron curtain and those co-opted by the West, began to shape the new world order.

Further Huntington postulates that historical antecedents produced his so-called “cleft countries” where a country contains two civilizations, example, Sri Lanka comprising Hindu and Buddhist. Conflicts appear in two forms: fault lines and core state conflicts. The former occurs between adjacent states belonging to different civilizations (Egypt-Israel), or within states that are home to populations from different civilizations (Ukraine). The latter are full-blown conflicts between major core states of different civilizations spilling over from expanding local fault-line engagements (India and Pakistan).

He also introduced “swing civilizations,” giving Russia, Japan and India as examples. These countries have the capability of taking sides, upending the power dynamics, dictated by their country’s self-interest. An illustration is Russia absorbing predominantly Muslim Chechnya while cooperating with Shia Muslim Iran to avoid Muslim-Orthodox encroachments in Southern Russia.

But several political scientists debunk Huntington’s take on the Western belief in the exclusive universality of Western values and political systems. Such insistence only further widens the cleavage between civilizations, further exacerbating the already untenable situation.

Critics have attacked Huntington’s position that nationalism, pluralism and democracy are alien to people in Arab lands and Muslim countries. This simplistic view is the biased Western assessment on the long dormant longings of a subjugated people. Countries during or after the Cold War act on the basis of their national interest and they will continue to do so in the new world order; although admittedly (Huntington could be half correct) national interest are likewise defined broadly and increasingly in cultural terms, perforce aligning themselves with countries of similar cultures.

With this insight, nations too are subject to a Jekyll and Hyde syndrome with multiple identities, one appearing when circumstances change. Fear, resulting in political passivity, is largely the stimulus wielded principally by fundamentalist Muslim regimes. But when fear is substituted for hope, as in the post-Muammar Gaddafi’s Libya and post-Mubarak Egypt, a surge of heightened expectations and aspirations appear — which could be equated quite erroneously with an exclusive definition of Western values of freedom and democracy. The eruptions of the “Arab Spring” (Tunisia 2010) give the lie to Huntington’s Western-values premise. Islam in these countries were prepared to surface their own values of pluralism, democracy and freedom in exchange for their lives.

Having said all these, the book’s major corollary controversies are becoming more obvious. First, is the Chinese hegemon replacing America? My take is perhaps today we are still in a flux between the ideological Cold War conflicts towards a full-scale clash of civilizations. This is a slight departure from Huntington’s premises.

The world will not tolerate a power vacuum and a dangerous political vacuity opened up resulting from the withdrawal of the United States from world engagements. The unilateral abrogation of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), the ominous bilateral trade talks with China and Trump’s naïve posturing towards its protegee, Kim Jong Un, allowed Xi Jinping a degree of confidence to flex his muscles, test the waters and encroach into the West Philippine Sea (South China Sea), upsetting the countries in the periphery. This has altered the power equation in Southeast Asia. We can only surmise how the two major civilizations in the area, Japanese and Hindu, will react to the similarly ancient Chinese civilization.

And the impulsive withdrawal of US presence from the conflict in Syria allowed a possible resurgence of the IS and half-abandoning the hapless Kurds to their ancient foe, Turkey; all these despite Trump’s grandstanding and arrogant pronouncements of having won over Islamic terrorism. True, the Islamic civilization has no core states, but Islamic and Chinese are being driven into each other’s arms with the careless actions of America or at the very least, present an entente against the insufferable West.

President Duterte may have deduced certain negative elements of the Huntingtonian premises that propelled him earlier in his administration to pivot away from Mother America to Brother China. Any which way, the Deegong has led his country down an untrodden foreign policy path. We are a country heavily influenced by Western values, but scratch the surface and one finds a proud Malay race, a civilization once dominant in the region but long gone. Huntington in his book, doesn’t even mention such civilization. He erroneously lumps the country as composed of mixed civilizations, with the South (Mindanao) described as Islamic.

Which brings us further to the Christian-Islamic undercurrents — which in Huntington’s thesis designates the Philippines as a “cleft country,”that is, one containing two civilizations. This is where Huntington’s hypothesis is on shaky ground. Added to this cauldron is a large influence of the Chinese and even Japanese civilizations. Would we then categorize ourselves as mongrelized?

The second corollary controversy: is Islam really at war with the West? And what are the implications to our country, particularly Mindanao? Dr. Pervez Hoodbhoy, a critic has this to say: “… (Huntington claims) US, helped by European countries, has repeatedly invaded Muslim countries, Afghanistan and Iraq…Facts! Since WW2 US invaded 30 countries: Vietnam, Korea, Laos, Cambodia, etc. In South America, El Salvador, Haiti, Honduras, Granada. These are not religious wars. US wanted to steal their resources, extend power and influence and fight against Soviet Union and communism.”

Dr. Hoodbhoy deflates Huntington further: “…why many Muslims want to migrate to the West? And why accept them? If there is war why Muslims born in the US become automatic citizens?

And his clincher: “…Muslims from Philippines, Pakistan, Bangladesh working years in Saudi Arabia or Gulf Estates can never be citizens nor their children born there. And these countries claim to be protector of Islam and guarantors of their prosperity.”

The notion of a clash of civilizations was not advocated by Islam nor by the Chinese, Hindu or Japanese but by the Westerner Huntington. Today, in all regions, the lives of Muslims are threatened not by the Western, Sinic, Hindu and ther civilizations, but mostly by Muslim themselves: Shite Iran and Sunni Iraq; Syria’s civil war; and Pakistan’s religious extremist violence are just among the few.

And perhaps, at the risk of oversimplification, I might add, these conflicts may be an offshoot of the acts of a uniquely ill-informed leader of an erstwhile “free world” who singlehandedly destroyed the legacy of his forebears and the residues of the Cold War. The current American President.

The 8 civilizations
Part 1

THIS year marks the 30th year after the Berlin Wall came down. This was the beginning of the dying throes of the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR). In two years, in the autumn of 1991, President Mikhail Gorbachev resigned, passing on power to Boris Yeltsin of Russia. The Soviet Union was dissolved, the Cold War ended, and the West won. Liberal democracy and capitalism trumped communism. The former was meant to sweep across the world in a new order, with the Western powers led by the United States presiding over a new era of harmony. This did not happen. The euphoria of victory was short-lived.

By the end of WW2, with the ascendancy of America as the lone self-appointed global police, an Iron Curtain descended upon the USSR ,dividing Europe into East and West blocs. The Cold War broke out, delineating the world further into political spheres of influence: the US-led Western liberal capitalist alliance; the Soviet Union-led communist bloc and the non-aligned countries which were the ideological moving targets of the power dynamics between the first two and where conflicts took place. The nuclear arsenal on opposing sides guaranteed total world destruction if ever the Cold War turned into a shooting conflict. Strangely, this paradigm brought about a modicum of stability of “non-war and non-peace” under the threat of mutually assured destruction (MAD). After 1991, this pattern of history, uneasy at best, disappeared.

In 1996, Samuel Huntington, an erudite Harvard professor published his book The Clash of Civilizations and The Remaking of World Order. His hypothesis is that in the post-Cold War world, future wars would be fought not between ideologies but between cultures. And the primary source of discord will be the people’s cultural and religious identities.

Accordingly, encounters fall along the faultlines of the world’s biggest cultural entities or civilizations. There is no universal civilization. Instead there are these seven or eight, each within its own set of values: a) Western North America and Western Europe with the US, Germany and France as the core states; b) Orthodox, with Russia as the core state; c) Confucian or Sinic with China as core state; d) Islamic but with no core states because of its heterogeneity; e) Latin American also with no core state; f) Hindu, India as core; and g) Japanese, Japan as core; and sub-Saharan Africa with no core state.

Two decades after Huntington’s book, empirical data suggests many nations did indeed align along cultural lines. Countries with similar cultures come together; those historically with different cultures broke up. Yugoslavia split up along cultural lines; Serbia/Bulgaria/Greece formed an Orthodox entente; Catholic parts of Yugoslavia/Slovenia/ Croatia came knocking on NATO’s door; Turkey resumed its role as protector of Muslims in the Balkans, Bosnia and Albania. Greece and Turkey are members of NATO, but with the post-Cold War ideological threat gone, Greece and Turkey are teetering on the edge of violence against each other. Sometimes civilizations go through boundaries of states. The eastern and western parts of Ukraine belong to different civilizations.

Two corollary issues are bones of contention. Western civilizations’ unique values; separation of Church and state; rule of law and rights of individuals; pluralistic nature of Western societies; which has evolved and existed for a thousand years have been imposed on other civilizations even older than itself. Confucian, Japanese and Hindi civilizations have their own unique ethos contradictory to the Western concepts. These attempts, backed up by might and the Cross, did not bode well for these already complex relationships.

Which brings us to the second issue — that of equating westernization with modernization. Under the guise of the globalization mantra as the vehicle for liberal democracy and capitalism, greater interaction with other civilizations was the intent of the Western world, primarily to create and expand world markets. But global capitalism has over-emphasized its impact on the world. In Islam, Chinese and other Eastern cultures, there is resistance to Western values of human rights and democracy.

All societies strive for wealth, welcoming the influx of new technology, availing of the benefits of modern science; adopting some elements of free-markets. But they don’t necessarily want to embody Western values nor take on their religions. Predominantly Shinto and Buddhist Japan is the template which could work. It is thoroughly modern, has significantly adopted elements of Western culture in its drive for economic growth, but it is not Western in character. Japanese don’t think of themselves as Western. They recognize certain fundamental differences in their culture, society and in their way of life which are anathema to other cultures, especially the US and Western Europe.

What is disturbing by far is the emergence of Islam challenging American hegemony framed by the knee-jerk response after the Sept. 11, 2001 Twin Towers attack. America had to re-evaluate its policy on foreign intervention after the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq. The lessons of these debacles resonated on the current Trump administration’s fixation on domestic immigration and the outright use of the label radical Islamic terrorism, which Bush and Obama refused to do, emphasizing that America was at war with violent extremists, not Islam itself.

The predicate of Trump’s racist position on immigration may have been that of Huntington’s proposition that the US needs to partner with its European allies to limit immigration to the US and put a cap from an annual 800K after 1965 to 500K, a needed pause to better concentrate on assimilating the millions who are already in place. President Trump rescinded this recommendation and reconfigured the issue into a massive racist rejection of the inflow of Muslims from the Middle East and countries from which “Islamic terrorists” are sourced.

It is believed, however, that a clash with Islam will not lead to a major war. As a civilization, Islam has no single dominant core Islamic state; but it is so fragmented and occupied primarily with fighting each other.

Islam has sub-civilizations within — Arabic, Malay, Turkic, and they compete for Islamic leadership, posing a destabilizing force in their region and culture. Iran vs Saudi for a time were arming Bosnian Muslims, for example, supporting different Islamic groups fighting non-Islamic ones. Islam used to have the dominant Ottoman Empire which disappeared. The rise of IS is a parody of the Islamic caliphate.

The “clash of civilizations” also presaged the singular rise of the Middle Kingdom. After Deng Xiaoping unleashed its economic dragons, China has become increasingly assertive and if it grows economically at the same rate as in the past decades, it will establish its hegemony over Asia and reclaim its sphere of influence which historically endured hundreds of years until the mid-19th century. Its nine-dash line and expansion in the South China Sea (West Philippine Sea) does not augur well for the countries on its periphery. China has already declared it is their right. But how will Japan and, more importantly, America react to this? And how will this affect the Philippines?

This article borrows and quotes heavily from Samuel Huntington’s opus; op-ed columnist David Brooks, essayist Emma Ashford and Dr. Pervez Hoodbhoy.

MY previous column discussed a “negatives list” of candidates who “must not be elected” to a Senate seat in May 2019. I mentioned three who are making a mockery of what is left of our fragile democracy and of the electoral process. I am expanding my list to include members of political dynasties (poldyns). I implore the voters, at least the readers of this column to a dispassionate scrutiny of the names and cull from the rest of the remaining 40 unknown candidates and dig deep into their qualifications and track records, perchance to excavate nuggets of gems of future senators outside of the discredited and tired branded names. Perhaps this is what the country needs badly, an injection of fresh qualified unknowns into the body politic whom we the voters will endow the honor to serve us. Polls are nothing more than a snapshot of an instant and subject to the dynamics of individual and collective choices. We can still alter the statistical regime.

President Duterte ran on three distinct campaign promises: the elimination of illegal drugs, reduction of graft and corruption and political restructuring through the revision of the 1987 Constitution. The first item is ongoing, but the collateral damage is incalculable. The officially accepted death toll from his draconian methods is more than 5,000 and counting. The figures on the streets and those counted by his political opponents and those by multilateral and international agencies have run up to almost twice the number, rendering his and the country’s reputation abroad in tatters. He is being threatened with his day of reckoning when he steps down from office before the International Criminal Court at The Hague for human rights violations. This possibility could be one of the reasons why he needs to be protected after he leaves office by anointing as his successor his daughter, Sara. The two previous Philippine presidents before him, Estrada and Macapagal- Arroyo have seen the insides of local jails; and PNoy may be next. But DU30 may also be a reluctant guest of an ICC penitentiary, albeit an international one. God forbid he ends up this way!

His fight against corruption is barely making a dent. And by the standards of his doctrine — a mere whiff of corruption — he has dismissed several of his people even those ostensibly close to him, some under questionable and unfair circumstances. But none of the big fish have been incarcerated — except perhaps one high-profile critic, a woman-senator, pending trial but currently languishing in jail. Dubiously, one plunderer-senator is now running under his PDP-Laban party, and the other under his daughter’s HnP.

But his third mantra, that of political-structural “pagbabago” through constitutional revisions, may have been derailed and out of the mainstream as some of the provisions contained in the 1987 Constitution have practically been scuttled in principle. I refer to the constitutional provision prohibiting political dynasties. Fully 11 out of the 20 or so leading senatorial candidates and those running for other elective positions are part of a “poldyn,” not to mention the President’s own — his daughter Sarah and two sons are all seeking elective public office.

But looking beyond Philippine politics, the creation of dynasties, business or criminal are simply the primordial urge to spread one’s seed and migration of power, influence and pelf to the next generation beyond the progenitor’s grave. From ancient to medieval periods, we have the pharaohs, emperors and kings expanding their progeny. After the age of kings, we allowed elected autocracy to reign supreme with absolute power and in some cases, vesting a plutocracy the license to reign and rule over all.

Even in criminal enterprises we have the same desires. An example is the Mafia families or the Cosa Nostra of Italy and the United States. Common to these families are the propensity for the capo di tutti capi (the family head) to train their children and close relatives at an early age on the art of crime. Nothing is more indispensable to protection from the law, the encroachment of rivals and the continued concentration of power and wealth than that of guaranteeing bloodline; though there are monumental failures as the breakdown of the sacred “omerta,” depicted by Mario Puzo in his Godfather novels.

Poldyns in the Philippine setting are much worse. Although constitutionally proscribed these past 32 years, no laws have been enacted to make the constitutional provision operative – not from the legislative body, majority of whom are themselves pillars of poldyns. And these dynasties now extend their tentacles to all facets of political and economic undertakings, attempting to expand their web of power to perpetuate themselves for generations. They are the rot and cancer to the body politic. They must therefore acquire the same guarantee mechanisms originally exclusive only to crime families through the legitimacy of the ballot. Their expected results are to keep corruption going and money flowing to the family coffers; consolidate their power and assume immense influence to protect family members from getting caught; or use its web to override prosecution. Thus, this crime network/political dynasty whose primary loyalty is to family has hidden this family business behind the cloak of public service, and psyched itself into believing in this solemn duty. True, there are decent individual members of dynasties, but our beef is with the collective malevolence of the concept, the structure and system itself. The biggest myth is the singular proposition that there are good and moral Philippine political dynasties. There are none!

These dynasts have almost succeeded in injecting themselves into the national conversation as sure winners. Let us reverse this dialogue and be more discerning.

There are 11 dynasts in a statistical striking position to make it to the 12 seats listed by the SWS & Pulse Asia in alphabetical order: Angara (Baler, Aurora); Aquino (Tarlac); Binay (Makati clan); Cayetano (Muntinlupa-Pateros-Taguig); Ejercito and Estrada (Manila, San Juan, Laguna); Mangudadatu (Sultan Kudarat, Maguindanao); Marcos (Ilocos Norte); Osmeña (Cebu); Revilla (Bacoor, Cavite); and Villar (Las Piñas, Muntinlupa).

The remaining nine out of 20 statistical probables therefore are nondynastic independents or guest candidates of the PDP-Laban, Hugpong, LP and assorted wannabees, again in alphabetical order: Colmenares, Go, dela Rosa, Lapid, Pimentel, Poe, Roxas, Tañada and Tolentino. Among these too are subalterns of dynasties.

But there are names worth considering among those statistically outside of the winner’s circle. Take out the dynasties and unearth the remaining 40 to replace them. Among others in alphabetical order: Aguilar, Alunan, Alejano, Chong, Diokno, Gadon, Gutoc, Manicad, Matula, Montano, Ong, etc.

We love to blame government for the ills of society, corruption, stark poverty and suffocating despair. And every three years, we, the people are given the privilege to set our course — a path to change. Yet we waste it and indulge in self-flagellation over and over. And in our choices, we rely blindly on our leaders who are themselves members of political dynasties whose intentions and agenda are suspect.

This cycle let us take a risk on ourselves! Or once more, be damned!

FROM a historical perspective, a lapse of 33 years after an episode is still much of a current event stretched out over a contemporary period. It is a photograph of a moment still subject to alterations. Volumes have been written about EDSA, what happened on Feb. 22-25, 1986 and their consequences on the country and the lives of its people.

My piece today is an attempt to shed light on current political realities and ongoing conflicts using EDSA as a backdrop, consequently contributing to the literature that future historians may ponder on. The current animosities between the Yellow army and the DDS are derivatives of the conflicted interpretations of EDSA. These are not merely a grudge fight between two political families, two sets of traditional politicians or two camps of the oligarchy, as they were framed then, nor are they a classic struggle between the forces of good and evil. It’s more complicated than a simple delineation of political fault lines between protagonists.

First, just the facts as I recall them. Those euphoric days of February are the Reformers’ version by those installed to power in the aftermath of a dictator’s ignominious exit. Victors have the prerogative to write their account for history — thus this was called and celebrated in subsequent years as a Revolution. It was then unpopular to contradict the appellation lest you invite the wrath of the millions who made it happen. Only much later, when the air had sufficiently cleared, emotions abated, expectations unmet and the “tradpols” and the oligarchy crawled back and were allowed to assume their places in the new order, that another version was proffered.

Academics and those indignantly left outside of the power structure were emboldened to pronounce this as merely a “local uprising,” not a revolution, since EDSA was confined only to the capital region and there were no structural changes, blah, blah, blah. This narrative disavows the people’s seething anger towards the dictatorship and all that it stood for. These pockets of rage epitomized by the weekly Friday protest were replicated in cities, towns and villages, building up towards the climax — our Edsa People Power Revolution. It was indeed a start of the revolution. Whether unfinished, aborted or captured, we leave that to future historians to judge — perhaps centuries from today.

Juan Ponce Enrile, Marcos’ defense secretary has another interpretation. “…EDSA People Power 1 should be commemorated on February 22, not February 25. That was when we bet our lives. That was when we gambled our lives for the benefit of the country.” (Philippine Daily Inquirer)

Hogwash! Enrile and his cohorts indeed gambled their lives to save their hides. It was a cold-blooded attempt at a coup d’état that failed. Were it not for the masses of ordinary citizens, some of whom were clueless, and the intervention of Gen. Fidel Ramos and the forces loyal to him, the carcasses of these putschists would have been quartered and drawn. FVR, who had been loyal to cousin Marcos and a professional soldier, took the side of the masses and thus became a hero — all transgressions and past faults and his role during Martial Law forgotten and forgiven. He was later anointed as Cory’s political successor.

The Marcos minions have a revisionist take. There was no revolution, but an uprising precipitated by a faction of the armed forces with the connivance of the American government; whereupon, they boarded an American plane and were kidnapped to Hawaii, not flown to Paoay.

So, after three decades, these changing versions reinforce my premise that unless all the participants have said their piece and to a man have gone to their graves — including this columnist — all these are still current events. One can’t accelerate history’s judgment on whether EDSA was a revolution, uprising or a coup d’état. We must await a longer passage of time.

What is certain is that EDSA polarized our country and the schism is deep. For one, Yellow was ardently adopted as the color of hope by the anti-Marcos forces, including the Liberal Party, PDP-Laban and some segments of the politicized Catholic Church hierarchy for the singular promise of a housewife to simply reinstate her limited concept of democracy and freedom and seek justice for the assassination of a husband and return the wealth stolen by the conjugal dictatorship. There was no clear strategy for systemic socio-economic-political restructuring as this was beyond the ken of a housewife-turned-politician. Later, it was a perception by the progressive allies that the cabal of traditional politicians in cahoots with a new set of oligarchy captured the revolution and established a new order protected by the 1987 Constitution.

President Fidel V. Ramos succeeding Cory had progressive programs of government but was likewise stymied by the same 1987 Constitution. Cory and Cardinal Sin collaborated to frustrate FVR’s attempt at constitutional revisions. Although the rift between Cory and FVR opened, Yellow and what it symbolized continued to be FVR’s color. But FVR dropped the “L” of Cory’s Laban sign and substituted his Lakas “thumbs-up.” FVR stopped wearing Yellow and tried to reach out to his friends and colleagues among the “Marcos pa rin diehards” whose martial law colors were Red and Blue. FVR truly wanted to bridge the gap between the Yellows and Red & Blues. He failed.

Gloria Macapagal Arroyo, the daughter of a respected President and a protegee of President Cory, fared no better revising the Cory constitution.

The 2005 Consultative Commission (ConCom) was constituted to initiate efforts to amend the 1987 Constitution to shift to a parliamentary-federal form of government with a liberalized economy. She failed.

Arroyo’s administration was fraught with accusations of corruption, leading to her plunder case and subsequent incarceration. At first supported by the Cory people, the Yellow members in cabinet abandoned her en masse over an election anomaly questioning the legitimacy of her presidency. This marked the final break between the Yellows of Cory and Gloria’s administration. This cleavage was further exacerbated by the subsequent assumption to power of an incompetent son and buried whatever good was left of the legacy of a once popular mother — resulting in her vilification. Cory’s death propelled the son to victory. In return, her son hammered the final nail to her good memory. Cory’s Yellow of hope worn by millions morphed into the pejorative Yellow of PNoy. Such is one of the tragedies of EDSA.

Today the forces of EDSA in several permutations are arrayed anew; PNoy’s Liberal Party Yellows with their “L” symbol, faced against the expedient alliance of the Red and Blue of DDS, the PDP-Laban and remnants of the Marcos Loyalists, cemented by the formidable DU30 “fist pump” that mimics the powerful “Sieg Heil” of epochs past; and on the sidelines are what remains of the memory of Cory’s tattered army. The latter lost its franchise over the Yellow and is no longer identified by any color; perhaps White, the presence of all colors; perhaps Black, an absence of.

So, 33 years after the EDSA People Power Revolution, nothing has changed; yet everything has changed. A conundrum!

I DEPART from conspiracy theories and speculate on a phenomenon whose impact is now being felt worldwide. The world population currently stands at 7.683 billion (www.worldmeters.info/world-population). The disturbing statistic is that it took 200K years since the appearance of homo sapiens to reach a billion at the turn of the 1800s; and a mere 200 years to reach 7 billion today. By 2050, at current growth rates, the United Nations predicts the world population could reach 9.6 billion. Demographic experts argue 10 billion is the earth’s maximum population carrying capacity; predicated too on another projection that earth can afford to feed only this much.

While in college, I was fascinated by the hypothesis of an 18th century philosopher, Thomas Malthus, whose writings centered on world population and its capacity to consume the earth’s resources. “The power of population is so superior to the power of the Earth to produce subsistence for man, that premature death must in some shape or other visit the human race.” (Thomas Robert Malthus)

Malthus postulates that population grows geometrically while world food production only arithmetically — eventually, more mouths will need more of earth’s resources, so that population growth at some point will outstrip food supply. Other writers and philosophers waded into the debate on the carrying capacity of planet earth, where at the turn of the century many predicted worldwide famine and chaos would ensue. Malthus softened this position with his “Malthusian trap” theory stating that excess population would stop growing due to starvation brought about by shortage of food supply. He projected further that certain corrections will intervene in the form of natural preventive checks, either by government and totalitarian methods or “deus ex machina” forcing population and earth’s resources on an equilibrium or sustainable level. This is his “Malthusian catastrophe.” More benign proposals to correct this imbalance were later adopted by governments through population control; “…family planning, late marriages and celibacy.”

But 19th, 20th and 21st century technology advancement intervened, increasing food supply to go hand in hand with the growing population – again broadening the parameters for population growth and food resources, debunking Malthus’ original projections. But common sense dictates that eventually, something has got to give.

In an excellent article by author Jared Diamond “The Global Peril of Inequality” (National Geographic, December 2018), the effects of the Malthusian paradigm has been played out in a parallel venue — with a twist. His theme is that “Life on earth is at risk from climate change, nuclear attack, dwindling resources — and the chasm between the rich and poor.” These were unknown and could not have been predicted during the era of Malthus. The last two of the four risks are the subject of this article.

The conflict in population vis-à-vis use of resources has been translated into the world’s economic divide — the haves and the have-nots; the rich and the poor; the developed and developing countries. For millennia, the encroachment of the colonial countries on the share of the earth’s resources has been implacable. The victims were never totally aware of these striking disparities until exposed to the living standards partly contributed by the resources extracted from the victims themselves. Diamond blamed this on “globalization,” the result of the eventual interconnections worldwide. Diamond put this succinctly: “…Until recently those poor people elsewhere were no threat to rich countries. ‘They’ out there didn’t know much about our lifestyle — and even if they did and became angry, they couldn’t do anything about it.” No longer. They are now a threat not only to the “haves, the rich and the developed world,” but even to their own — from whence they came. They see the higher living standards of these countries and they want these for themselves, not accepting the fact that these developed countries have decades and generations to practice their exploitative methods. Diamond further posits “…people with spartan lifestyle want affluent ones. In most developing countries, increasing living standards is a top policy goal. But millions of people in those countries won’t wait to see whether their government can deliver higher living standards within their lifetime.” And these developing countries will not be able to deliver in the foreseeable future. Thus, notwithstanding each country’s internal dynamics, Diamond’s assertion will precipitate three general threats exacerbating the economic and social divide, fueled by globalization. Diamond summarizes these into three categories: health, terrorism and migration.

The spread of disease has been aggravated by “…travelers from poor countries where the diseases are endemic and public health measures are weak.” Airplanes accelerate in hours diffusion of infected food and passengers thousands of kilometers from the source.

Terrorism. “Global inequality itself isn’t the direct cause of terrorist acts. Religious fundamentalism and individual psychopathology play essential roles. Every country has its crazy, angry individuals driven to kill; poor countries have no monopoly on them. But in poor countries today, people are barraged with media visions of lifestyle that are available elsewhere in the world and unavailable to them. In anger and desperation, some become terrorists themselves; others tolerate or support terrorists.”

Migration. One of the greatest hoaxes propagated by developed countries is that adoption of good policies by governments led by honest and incorruptible political leaders eventually result in a similar improvement of quality of life for its people. This has been the guiding principles of the World Bank-IMF, the ADB and the multilaterals preaching the bible of good governance and good economic behavior. This is a cruel deception as the world’s resources are no longer available to emerging economies as they have been co-opted by the developed economies for decades. These countries can no longer enjoy the consumption rates that Americans, for example, take for granted.

Taking the average consumption of oil as a gauge for a quality of life, rich countries (the haves) with far less population have consumption up to 30 times as high as they are in poor countries (have-nots). This high figure is calculated as being enough for 10-fold the current world population — such a waste of resources!

This is where we revert to Malthus. The world’s resources are finite and technology can no longer mitigate the effects of a disastrous population bursting at the seams.

What is needed is a new global paradigm. Diamond proposes the equalization of consumption rates for all. US consumption is the most wasteful of all advanced economies. Western Europe, which has a similar life quality, has a consumption rate half that of America (per capita oil consumption) “ — and yet the average Western European’s well-being is higher than that of the average American by any meaningful criterion, such as financial security after retirement, health, infant mortality, life expectancy, and vacation time.”

To stave off the Malthusian disaster and the Global Peril, Diamond hints of the application by developed countries of their collective political will. America and the developed world need to lower consumption while maintaining a good quality of life and in effect improve the developing countries’ own. Studies also show that improvement in lifestyle stunts population growth.

This is what we must confront today. We only have one home — Planet Earth. We make it livable. Or we perish together.

MY conspiracy series starting with the January 23 “A Russian Spy in the White House?” segueing into the local “Conspiracy theory,” provoked commentaries falling under another genre: What if? Some readers likewise are framing their thoughts on the rhetorical question with several twists: from the benign to the bane; from the probable to the possible; from wishful thinking to grudging hope; from pure conjecture to reality in transit. What if, the Deegong were really sick and loses his grip on power unable to perform his presidential duties?

Denizens in the fringes, deviants given voice through social media, incorrigible rumormongers and simply the peddlers of lies bound by a common loathing for the Deegong have declared that the President is dead! A doppelganger now sits on the throne! Despite evidence to the contrary, they will insist on spreading that which gives them some sort of social media legitimacy. But the reality is simple. President Duterte is alive and well and kicking ass. And if his health is a gauge, he will live to torment the unbelievers way past his term of office; way past the term of office of his designated successor, Sara! And with the help of God, he will live to be a 100. But this will be a curse upon him.

I remember the twilight years of the Marcos regime, with the dictator afflicted with lupus erythematosus, an autoimmune disease, his detractors were divining his every move and any minute change in his complexion. And even his supporters believed he was dying. Eventually he died of other complications. But people by then had successfully passed judgement and booted him out. A sad spectacle of a leader possessed of a brilliant mind in a deteriorating body, dead in exile.

But the evil genius planned his exit. Marcos was beyond his legitimate term of office, but he had the Armed Forces and the PC-INP in his pockets. He had no rightful successor, but he had the triumvirate of disciples ready and prepared to take over government in case of his quick demise (Tolentino as his VP towards the end was a pathetic play to the American ruling elite). Headed by a headstrong and flamboyant wife, Imelda, his ever-loyal lapdog of a cousin and head of the Armed Forces, Gen. Fabian Ver, and the oligarch Danding Cojuangco, the son he never had — the three were to carry out the dictator’s wish, even beyond the grave.

We don’t have this set-up today. That the Deegong himself could be the author of this conspiracy is being debunked. At best, this is simply an unfolding series of serendipitous occurrences favoring the Deegong. DU30 “…is not in the mold of FM. If he is capable of deep diabolical thinking, it certainly does not show given his many inexcusable blunders.” PRRD may just wait for the opportunity for a rev-gov to present itself and grab it. And this could be happening now. Marcos created the conditions for the suspension of the writ of habeas corpus in the 1970s with the unwitting help of the communists in the Plaza Miranda bombing of the Liberal Party rally as a prelude to the declaration of Martial Law. “The bombings in Mindanao, the uncovered humongous anomalies of the Aquino administration, the public impatience with the incessant bickering and antics of politicians, the bloody elections can serve as the trigger to justify rev-gov.” This is John Rana’s take; he is an ally of DU30 and an FVR protegee. He is not suggesting PRRD is doing a Marcos, but the DDS are extremely delighted to read into this its rev-gov agenda — scaring the bejesus out of ordinary peace-loving citizens.

Now the ultimate What if — the Deegong suddenly dies? In 1957, President Magsaysay died in a plane crash. The transition to Vice President Garcia, a Nacionalista partymate was seamless. In 1948, President Manuel Roxas died of a heart attack in Clark Field, Pampanga. Vice President Elpidio Quirino, a Liberal partymate took over as President in a peaceful handover.

In the current context, God forbid if it happens, there exists a constitutional successor, Vice President Leni Robredo, leader of the opposition Liberal Party, bête noire of the DDS. Fortunately, no one in the cabinet has the alpha cred and political chutzpa to lead a coup. There are four dozen ex-military men installed by DU30 in his civilian government, occupying sensitive positions in all levels of government. But they don’t have the wherewithal. Chances are they may simply have to go through the motions proving themselves irrelevant and a nuisance.

The DU30 sycophants, visualizing this likelihood, have been agitating to replace Leni with the pliable Bongbong Marcos. She can’t just sit and declare her constitutional right to lead. She may have to be propped up by Gen. Benjamin Madrigal Jr of the AFP. The general has effective command of the troops and can enforce the chain of command. The other is Director General Oscar Albayalde of the Philippine National Police (PNP). But there are no indications in their past that they will not defend the Constitution.

Abu-Sayyaf and the Muslim extremists may create pockets of disturbance but the recently mainstreamed MILF/MNLF have now been granted their BARMM to protect. The NPA may be the main beneficiary of this disarray but their ranks have been decimated; it is now populated by an aging leadership. And the Catholic Church hierarchy, bereft of a politically astute Cardinal Sin, will continue to ask for prayers, preach against violence and will not take sides and alienate its flock lest it endangers its collection plates. The President’s rabble will for a time be agitating for a “civil war.” This will not happen. Like the oligarchy, they are too comfortable in their current status, and when the patron is gone, they will seek out other patrons.

And our politicians will predictably gravitate to the next brand, probably Leni’s Liberal Party; reprising DU30’s 2016 ascendancy where PDP-Laban grew from a handful to hundreds in just a few days. You can rely on the shameless trad-pols whose concept of public service is to serve first their family political dynasty.

Methinks the US will show their velvet glove as they twice did for the Cory regime: allowing Marcos the means to “cut cleanly” in 1986; and a display of their F-4 Phantom II jets over Metro Manila driving Honasan out with his tail between his legs in the 1989 coup attempt. America will support the constitutional path. And China wouldn’t really care. They have signed MOAs and gave promises of billions to the Philippines. They can do the same to a Robredo administration. Give promises.

But the person our people will look up to is the defense secretary, Delfin Lorenzana – a patriot, one close to America but not a certified “Amboy” though not strictly within the chain of command; he has the moral facade and credibility. He swore a duty to defend and protect the Constitution – not the Deegong, not the person – but the institutions.

This ‘what if’ depends so much on the Deegong exiting the scene due to natural causes. What if, DU30 dies under questionable circumstances?

Then all bets are off!

THE country’s newest telco hasn’t even gotten off the ground yet but is already catching a lot of flak from opposition politicians and scaremongers. Don’t get me wrong. I’m all for giving everyone (the critics most especially) the democratic space to put in their two cents’ worth, however inane it may be. But when such opinion or point of view calls for applying the law or the rules selectively, then it should be unmasked for what it really is — a partisan political stunt.

Caught in the crosshairs of Duterte administration critics is the country’s third telco, Mislatel, and its consortium partners: Dennis Uy’s Udenna Corp. and Chelsea Logistics, and state-owned China Telecom.

Senate Minority Leader Franklin Drilon argued that Mislatel’s franchise was “ipso facto revoked” for failure to operate after it secured its license in the 1990s and for failure to seek congressional approval when majority interest were transferred to a certain Nicanor Escalante.

Drilon was obviously referring to the provision in Mislatel’s legislative franchise (Republic Act 8627) requiring the latter to “commence operations within one (1) year from the approval of its permit by the National Telecommunications Commission,” and to “commence operations within three (3) years from the effectivity of this Act.”

Another provision in the legislative franchise of Mislatel, referred to by Drilon, states that “the grantee (i.e. Mislatel) shall not lease, transfer, grant the usufruct of, sell nor assign this franchise or the rights and privileges acquired thereunder to any person, firm, company, corporation or other commercial or legal entity, nor merge with any other corporation or entity, nor shall the controlling interest of the grantee be transferred, whether as a whole or in parts and whether simultaneously or contemporaneously, to any such person, firm, company, corporation or entity without the prior approval of the Congress of the Philippines…”

So, at first glance, Drilon appears to have raised a valid point. Except that these provisions in Mislatel’s legislative franchise are what we lawyers call “boilerplate clauses” or standardized language used in all telco legislative franchises. This means that all local telecoms companies have the same, if not similar, clauses in their respective legislative franchises.

Which begs several questions: Why is Mislatel being singled out? Why have the legislative franchises of other dormant (aka nonoperating) telcos not been revoked? And why have former buyout deals of telecoms duopoly Smart or Globe not been subjected to the same congressional scrutiny as Mislatel?

If we are to level the playing field and apply the law fairly and equally to all telco players, then all existing legislative franchises as well as buyout or joint venture deals, should be reviewed and re-examined, and must be subjected to the same eagled-eyed inquiry as Mislatel.

In the list of “Public Telecommunications Entities with National Coverage,” there are several telcos that do not even have a provisional authority (PA) or a Certificate Certificate of Public Convenience and Necessity (CPCN) that would allow them to operate, let alone operate continuously.

One of the oldest ones, even pre-dating Mislatel’s franchise, is a certain Major Telecoms Inc., which was granted a legislative franchise as far back as July 26, 1994 but does not at present have any PA or CPCN from the NTC. Another dormant telco is Unicorn Communications Corp., which obtained its legislative franchise on July 11, 1996, two years ahead of Mislatel.

There are several other dormant telcos in the NTC list like Message Systems Inc. (RA 8279, approved April 10, 1997), H. E. Baldo, Inc. (RA 9149, approved July 31, 2001), Schutzengel Telecom Inc. (RA 9857, approved Dec. 20, 2009) and several others granted legislative franchises from 2012 to 2016. Why haven’t their congressional franchises been declared “ipso facto” revoked for continued nonoperation?

I’m sure the public is also well-aware of the buyout deals in the telecoms industry. One of the more notable ones is the acquisition of the former third telco player — the Gokongwei-led Digitel (of the defunct Sun Cellular) — by Philippine Long Distance Telephone Co. (PLDT) in 2011 for P69.2 billion. That takeover removed the only viable competitor to telco giants Smart and Globe.

It was such a controversial transaction that not a few senators and congressmen raised a howl over the share-swap deal, demanding that the transfer of the controlling interest in Digitel to PLDT should be subject to congressional approval, citing a similar boilerplate clause in Digitel’s legislative franchise.

Of more recent vintage was the buyout by PLDT and Globe of telecoms unit of conglomerate San Miguel Corp. for P69.1 billion, so far the biggest telco deal in the country.

Under the deal, PLDT and Globe will acquire the entire share capital and assume the liabilities of firms with additional spectrum frequencies, such as Bow Arken Holdings Co. (parent company of New Century Telecoms Inc.) for P691 million, and Brightshare Holdings Inc. (parent of Eastern Telecommunications Philippines Inc. [Eastern]) for P206 million.

Meanwhile, the shares of Vega Telecom Inc. (holding company for publicly traded Liberty Telecoms Holdings Inc. which owns almost all the 700MHz frequency (694 MHz to 790 MHz), together with High Frequency Telecommunications Inc., Bell Telecommunication Philippines Inc. and Eastern, were sold to Smart and Globe for P52.85 billion.

To my knowledge, none of these buyout deals secured “prior” congressional approval, let alone been scrutinized or approved by Congress, as stipulated in their legislative franchises. Why didn’t Drilon and his Liberal Party allies invoke the same provisions and demand the same congressional authorization in the Digitel and SMC deals as it did with Mislatel? If the takeover transactions of PLDT and Globe sans congressional imprimatur wasn’t such a big deal then, why should it suddenly be an issue now in the case of Mislatel?

True, Congress may have ratified Mislatel’s franchise and ownership change. But why only Mislatel? Aber?

PRESIDENT Rodrigo Duterte’s state of health has been a matter of routine concern for Filipinos since he came into office in July 2016, but it took a turn for the worst last week when rumors spread online that he had, in fact, died.

This gave Malacañang a chance to quote Mark Twain and say “rumors of his death were grossly exaggerated”: on Monday, one newspaper front page showed him having breakfast and reading a newspaper with his live-in partner Honeylet Avanceña; on Tuesday, his spokesman Salvador Panelo babbled about his “robust health.” A slight fever last Friday had prevented him from attending a scheduled peace and order summit in Leyte, said Panelo, otherwise he was in the very pink of health.

We have nothing as reliable as a medical bulletin to tell us about DU30’s actual health condition. Usually reliable Palace sources said he was not in Malacañang from Friday to Sunday; on the other hand, our Davao sources, who have access to DU30’s inner circle, said he was not in Davao either. His last public appearance was when he visited Jolo to condole with the families of the victims of the January 26 twin bombings of Our Lady of Mount Carmel Cathedral; reports said he had a dizzy spell after that visit, while clasping his breast with his right hand. He finally reappeared on Monday in Davao.

Asking for prayers
DU30 was reported to have asked for prayers. He had not done this before; he had on the other hand attacked the Church with profanities and invectives, and ridiculed Catholics for their hopeless church-going. Some of my friends quickly responded with genuine charity without suspecting DU30 might just be playing with them. They were happy to learn he had not succumbed to any fatal illness.

The most skeptical, however, wondered whether it’s not a DU30 “clone” or “double” that’s been photographed for the consumption of the Filipino public, especially after the Philippine Star on Tuesday carried on its front page a picture of a DU30 look-alike, together with a Kim Jong Un look-alike, feasting on fried chicken at a Jollibee outlet in Hong Kong. The North Korean strongman’s impersonator was identified as Howard, while DU30’s impersonator was identified as “Cresencio Extreme.”

But while DU30’s physical health seems to be holding out, not everything about his government is well. His handling of the twin bombings in Jolo and the bombing of the Zamboanga mosque is all shot; you have to suspend all disbelief to believe what DU30 and the Philippine National Police (PNP) are saying about the so-called “suicide bombing.” An unidentified Indonesian husband and wife were supposed to have been the suicide bombers; this means they carried the bombs that killed 20 others and wounded over a hundred, mostly churchgoers, and were probably blown to bits, beyond recognition.

DU30’s clairvoyance

How in Heaven’s name were the police able to identify them as Indonesians, after their bodies were pulverized, and without any policeman or witness having spoken to them when they were still alive, before the fatal explosions? And how was DU30 able to identify the “suicide bombers” even before the PNP began their half-baked investigation? This seems to suggest some amount of clairvoyance.

In my previous column, I mentioned that one full week after the bombings, the PNP crime laboratory had not been able to come out with a crime report, because they could not decide what explosive material was used by the “suicide bombers.” They also apparently had difficulty gathering DNA samples after the “crime scene” was prematurely and ill-advisedly washed of the blood and body parts of the victims. At this writing, the situation reportedly remains unchanged. There is still no crime lab report.

Indonesians at Crame
On Monday, PNP Chief Oscar Albayalde announced that five Abu Sayyaf members had surrendered to the police in connection with the cathedral bombing. But there has been no explanation of the delayed crime lab report. Nor has there been any intelligent follow-up on the alleged Indonesian suicide bombers. On Monday, a group of Indonesian government men, obviously intelligence personnel, were huddled at Camp Crame with PNP officers. They stayed there for hours. Their presence, however, was not mentioned in Albayalde’s press briefing that afternoon.

Why were they there in the first place? Highly informed PNP sources were inclined to believe the Indonesians were invited by Albayalde to lend a hand to DU30 and the PNP in selling the story to the public about the “Indonesian suicide bombers.” But Albayalde’s people apparently failed to convince the Indonesians to support their proposed script, so there was no mention of the Indonesians coming to Camp Crame that afternoon.

This suspicion may or may not be correct. If correct, DU30 will have to exert great effort to make sure Jakarta does not question his claim, without any concrete proof, that two Indonesian “suicide bombers” carried out the Jolo bombings.

The prospect from Jakarta
More than this, DU30 will have to make sure Indonesia, the biggest Muslim country in the world, does not protest DU30’s deafening silence and inaction on the bombing of the Zamboanga mosque, which killed two Islamic missionaries and wounded five others, one day after the Sulu cathedral was bombed.

Frustrated by DU30’s insouciance, in utter contrast to his ballistic reaction to the Jolo bombings, some moderate Filipino Muslims are asking that the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (O1C), the 57-nation “collective voice of the Muslim world,” demand an explanation for DU30’s lukewarm response. They seem inclined to believe that the Zamboanga attack could have been the work of the old Davao Death Squad, whose crimes were exposed in the 2017 Senate hearings by two self-confessed DDS members, Edgar Matobato and Arturo Lascañas. An OIC intervention could seriously disrupt DU30’s last three years in office.

This would be regrettable enough. But what if, despite the Malacañang quack doctor’s professional diagnosis, DU30’s medical condition proves to be no better than that of his politics? DU30’s reported call for a command conference of the military and the police, soon, can only be intended to examine his prospects.

* * *

Even before the official campaign period for the May 13 elections could begin, former presidential spokesman and senatorial candidate Harry Roque Jr. withdrew from the race for reasons of health. For those who never considered Harry a worthy pick, this was a signal service to the voters. Many are hoping most of the 62 remaining senatorial candidates could follow Harry’s lead and relieve them of the burden of rejecting the unfit.

Part 2

LAST week’s column stirred a hornet’s nest of stinging comments from my friends from both sides of the aisle — the Yellow horde and the DDS. The former regards this conspiracy as a veritable manifestation of the dying throes of a strongman feigning to be a strong leader of a weak state. Or as I gather from various blogs in social media “…a leader who equates the use of political will with that of a totalitarian wielding political bully power.” A culmination of the two years of policy bumbling, merely coping with the challenges of the presidency and outright mis-governance lathered with copious amounts of misogynic statements and attacks against the Catholic Church. This is a harsh judgment of DU30’s regime, but not entirely unexpected as the PNoy administration’s skeletons in the closet are now being exposed: the irregular Disbursement Acceleration Program (DAP) controversy, Dengvaxia deaths due to corruption, pork barrel scam (Napoles) and a host of anomalies, making PNoy and his minions vulnerable to possible jail terms — as his predecessors GMA and Erap went through. We Filipinos have the propensity to jail our presidents; or in a more depraved way, the incoming regime, if in opposition, will exact its pound of flesh. Thus, what GMA did to Erap, and what PNoy did to GMA and what DU30 will do to PNoy — are by far the trend. If the opposition wins after DU30, then he may also see the other side of a jail cell.

But there were positive remarks too on my conspiracy article. In fact, certain permutations to the conspiracy theory were added, suggesting a wide traction that seem to make the scenarios more believable. For instance, some proffered the idea that all these were tolerated upon his sufferance and mostly emanated from the mind of the political strategist — the Deegong himself — who may have foreseen and even planned this a long time ago. In summary, this is a foreplay to the long-awaited revolutionary government (revgov) that has particularly resonated with his true believers. Accordingly, the Deegong is wise enough to lull the Yellows into a state of confidence, lethargy even. And he will pounce at the time of his choosing.

To fortify the DU30’s authorship of the conspiracy theory, they volunteered the information that long before his ally GMA was installed as speaker in the House of Representatives, the bureaucracy was being reconfigured with retired military men, seconded into the President’s coterie, occupying key positions –“…59 retired military generals, police directors, admirals and colonels (were to date) appointed to the Cabinet and other agencies, including government-owned corporations. Many of them are either from Mindanao or were assigned to Davao City where Mr. Duterte served as mayor for 22 years…” (Inquirer.net, Fe Zamora, Philip Tubeza). But more importantly, key officials, from the AFP chief of staff to area commanders, police generals and regional directors, which matter the most in a junta-led government, were personally hand-picked by DU30. He learned well from his lamented predecessor, President Marcos, whom he professed to admire greatly.

Which brings the conspiracy theory to the part played by the Marcoses. The family has staged a comeback with the help of DU30 but at the same time their impact has been greatly moderated; thus, they must remain the liege lords of the north in obeisance to the DU30 and the Duterte that may come after the Deegong, Sarah. With the Sandiganbayan’s decision finding the matriarch Imelda guilty on seven counts, and the pending P200-billion forfeiture case hanging like Damocles’ sword over them, the Marcoses understand where power lies. For all intents and purposes, only the Marcos name and a whiff of the legend lingers. Bongbong’s move against Leni is going nowhere and even if he wins the protest, it will come too late. And the most capable of the Marcoses after Ferdinand himself, Imee, may just wither in the vine in the Senate — if she makes it. And the brains, the political centurions and structures that were once formidable adjuncts to the family — Danding Cojuangco, Estelito Mendoza, Lucio Tan, Enrile and their ilk — may now be in an advanced state of dementia. And their North is no longer solid as there are now more claimants. There is no longer a “king of the north,” to paraphrase “The Game of Thrones.” Thus, the conspiracy theory with the suspected provenance of the Deegong has more credence. But how will this blow in the international scene? Not much, really.

Our closest ally America, while awaiting the impeachment of a clueless President who is likewise accused of being a stooge or spy of the Russians, is really of no consequence to the realities of the Philippines. We symbolically cut our umbilical cord with mother America when the Deegong did his song and dance number on his pivot to China, but our direct emotional ties with 2 million Filipinos in America are a permanent unbreakable bond. And our substitution for China’s embrace is proving to be awkwardly uncomfortable with the Chinese territorial claims and encroachment into our sovereignty unchecked, and with the Deegong postponing confrontation with the inevitable to the next regime.

Shamelessly we have telegraphed to our neighbors in Asia and to the world that despite our moral victory at the UN arbitral court, China can do whatever it wants. It will spread morsels and scraps our way and we will take them — under the guise of the ‘Build, Build, Build’ program. And we will be thankful. We are in effect already a province of China. So, the conspiracy theory, either way, does not matter to them.

And where will be the adherents of real reform? The believers in a federal-parliamentary government and the liberalization of our economy through constitutional revisions? We’ve been had!

And we are again faced with an election where the name brands, the political dynasts and the discredited politicians freed from their jail terms may again win. And they will once more ride herd over this country and continue sucking the marrows of our countrymen – because the stupid voters will put them in power. And we will celebrate this as the triumph of democracy.

Perhaps the conspiracy theory is just a theory. Perhaps it is a product of the minds of desperate Filipinos who have been waiting for the pagbabago to happen. Perhaps it is a longing for freedom-loving, honest and handworking constituents like many of us to repair to a reverie where we are momentarily made safe. Perhaps, this is just a projection of our fears and hopes. Or perhaps, this is in fact true, ongoing and may soon erupt. Perhaps…!